Projected Income Statement: Petrobras

Forecast Balance Sheet: Petrobras

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 265,778 224,510 227,799 304,800 319,931 286,245 264,295 242,300
Change - -15.53% 1.46% 33.8% 4.96% -10.53% -7.67% -8.32%
Announcement Date 2/24/22 3/2/23 3/8/24 2/26/25 3/6/26 - - -
1BRL in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Petrobras

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 34,134 49,656 62,297 85,442 103,071 94,222 97,394 97,148
Change - 45.47% 25.46% 37.15% 20.63% -8.59% 3.37% -0.25%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 168,992 205,754 159,925 136,180 87,257 116,786 119,919 107,989
Change - 21.75% -22.27% -14.85% -35.92% 33.84% 2.68% -9.95%
Announcement Date 2/24/22 3/2/23 3/8/24 2/26/25 3/6/26 - - -
1BRL in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Petrobras

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 51.82% 53.1% 51.18% 50.19% 49.07% 52.95% 52.06% 52.22%
EBIT Margin (%) 37.89% 42.46% 38.21% 36.54% 32.09% 38.88% 35.71% 35.01%
EBT Margin (%) 33.48% 42.88% 34.56% 12.19% 30.04% 37.57% 31.56% 31.28%
Net margin (%) 23.56% 29.37% 24.3% 8.23% 22.01% 25.27% 21.29% 20.84%
FCF margin (%) 37.33% 32.09% 31.36% 25.8% 18.53% 19.91% 21.7% 19.99%
FCF / Net Income (%) 158.43% 109.25% 129.05% 313.25% 84.17% 78.82% 101.92% 95.95%

Profitability

        
ROA 10.88% 19.32% 12.29% 9.72% 8.97% 11.57% 9.03% 8.49%
ROE 30.66% 50.23% 33.54% 28.14% 29.04% 31.48% 20.78% 18.73%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 1.13x 0.66x 0.87x 1.15x 1.38x 0.92x 0.92x 0.86x
Debt / Free cash flow 1.57x 1.09x 1.42x 2.24x 3.67x 2.45x 2.2x 2.24x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 7.54% 7.74% 12.22% 16.18% 21.89% 16.07% 17.62% 17.99%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 14.55% 14.58% 23.87% 32.24% 44.6% 30.34% 33.85% 34.44%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 20.2% 24.13% 38.95% 62.74% 118.12% 80.68% 81.22% 89.96%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 15.57 19.58 16.56 15.82 14.77 16.9 15.63 15.9
Change - 25.74% -15.41% -4.5% -6.65% 14.47% -7.54% 1.74%
Dividend per Share 1 8.534 15.09 5.569 5.734 3.199 3.565 5.375 5.533
Change - 76.82% -63.09% 2.96% -44.21% 11.41% 50.78% 2.95%
Book Value Per Share 1 29.69 27.8 29.4 28.4 30.96 39.28 43.71 47.9
Change - -6.39% 5.77% -3.41% 9.01% 26.9% 11.26% 9.59%
EPS 1 8.18 14.44 9.57 2.84 8.026 11.83 9.177 8.814
Change - 76.53% -33.73% -70.32% 182.59% 47.46% -22.46% -3.96%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 13,044,201 13,044,201 13,015,466 12,888,733 12,888,733 12,888,733 12,888,733 12,888,733
Announcement Date 2/24/22 3/2/23 3/8/24 2/26/25 3/6/26 - - -
1BRL
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E 4.06x 5.23x
PBR 1.22x 1.1x
EV / Sales 1.6x 1.66x
Yield 7.43% 11.2%

EPS & Dividend



Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

 

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
-
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
BUY
Number of Analysts
13
Last Close Price
48.00BRL
Average target price
57.11BRL
Spread / Average Target
+18.98%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise

-40%: Exceptional extension
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