Analysis: Interest Rates

ECB to raise rates a second time in September, but then done, say economists: Reuters poll 

The European Central Bank will raise interest rates on September 10 for the second and final time in what would be its shortest hiking campaign in 15 years, according to a Reuters poll published on...

Bond selloff is likely amplified by obscure economic rate

A recent rise in Treasury yields in part reflects growing investor bets that an obscure, theoretical rate consistent with stable growth and inflation is moving higher.  Some...

Why Japan's Yield Comeback Is Threatening US Bonds

With Japanese yields at their highest level in 30 years, local investors are rediscovering their home market. This shift could gradually reduce their demand for US, European and Australian bonds,...

Fed: Lombard Odier bets on a 25bp hike in September

According to Bill Papadakis, senior macro strategist at Lombard Odier, the speech delivered on August 28 by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh offered the clearest indication yet of his view on the monetary policy...

At Jackson Hole, a moment of clarification

Kevin Warsh dusted off his hawkish suit.

Treasuries: Citadel Securities Now Betting on a Pullback in LT Rates

After taking a bearish view on bonds at the start of the summer, Citadel Securities now believes the risk-reward balance favors a decline in long-term US rates over the coming months.

Bessent Cannot Win Against the Bond Market

The fundamentals are all pointing in the same direction: higher rates.

For Janus Henderson, the time has come to take a position in short-term bonds

The asset manager believes that the global geopolitical backdrop marks the end of over half a century of bullish bond markets

Aberdeen does not expect a BoE rate hike despite inflation

Responding to the acceleration in UK inflation reported this morning by the ONS, Felix Feather, an economist at Aberdeen, says he still expects the Bank of England to maintain a wait-and-see stance...

Panda, Kangaroo, Samurai… Asia-Pacific bonds gain momentum

From Australian kangaroo bonds to Chinese panda notes, companies and sovereigns looking for funding are diversifying their sources across Asia-Pacific. Attractive costs, rising local demand and a...

Washington Borrows over 10 Years at Its Highest Rate Since 2007

July's moderation in US inflation, in line with expectations, has tempered bets on a Fed rate hike in September, but investors remain cautious. The latest 10-year auction printed its highest yield in...

Australia holds its main interest rate at 4.35% as high inflation persists

The Reserve Bank of Australia left its policy rate unchanged at 4.35% for a second straight meeting, after three increases since the start of the year. It says policy is now restrictive, although it...

Donald Trump Is Not Done With the Fed

Despite Kevin Warsh's arrival, political pressure remains intense.

AI, the Fed and the Yen: the new equation for the US markets

For Swiss private bank J. Safra Sarasin, the US economy continues to grow more strongly than expected. Consumers are maintaining spending steady despite higher energy costs, supported by generous tax...

When the bond market twists Washington's arm

The yen's weakness risked putting even more pressure on the US bond market.

The Fed In Passenger Seat

Does Kevin Warsh want to outsource monetary policy to the market?

Bank of England Leaves Base Rate Unchanged

The Bank of England said its Monetary Policy Committee voted at yesterday's meeting to keep its key rate at 3.75%, by a six-to-three majority. Three members would have preferred a 0.25% increase to...

Fed: Warsh promises the impossible, leaving the markets in the fog

Kevin Warsh used his press conference to reaffirm the Federal Reserve's determination to bring inflation back towards 2%, while stopping short of clarifying the interest-rate path. After 5 years of...

The ECB Keeps Key Interest Rates Unchanged

As economists had expected, the ECB's Governing Council today decided to leave its three key policy rates unchanged, noting that the outlook for energy price developments, while highly volatile, is...