TFF Group has had a particularly difficult start to fiscal 2026/27, with first-quarter revenue of €56.9m, down 36.4%. A contraction well above expectations, reflecting an acceleration in the decline in activity after fiscal 2025/26 had already been marked by a 27% drop.

The Wine division (-33%) in particular suffered from weak demand in the United States, where inventories remain high, while Europe held up better. Spirits (-41%) were heavily hit by Bourbon (-46%), a result of lower production at US distilleries. Whisky, however, shows a relative improvement.

TFF Group now expects a decline in its revenue and results for the year, in an environment that remains unfavorable. The weak European wine harvest is expected to weigh on the coming months, even if the gradual reopening of US distilleries from the third quarter could bring the first signs of improvement.

Against this backdrop, the group is continuing to adjust capacity and reduce debt, while awaiting an exit from the downturn cycle expected sometime in 2028. After this disappointing release, further downward revisions to market forecasts are possible.

Portzamparc nonetheless maintains its Buy recommendation, with a target of €20.30, citing a valuation viewed as low and fundamentals seen as solid over the longer term.

For its part, TP ICAP Midcap downgrades its recommendation on TFF Group from Hold to Sell and cuts its price target from €16 to €14, after a first quarter of 2026/27 that was well below expectations.

The research firm accordingly cuts its 2026/27 forecasts and now expects revenue of €239.7m, down 23.3%, alongside a 3.4-point contraction in the EBITDA margin. TP ICAP Midcap will reassess its view ahead of the third quarter, when visibility on a Bourbon recovery should improve.