Projected Income Statement: Shell plc

Forecast Balance Sheet: Shell plc

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 52,555 44,837 43,541 38,809 45,687 38,831 35,824 34,794
Change - -14.69% -2.89% -10.87% 17.72% -15.01% -7.74% -2.88%
Announcement Date 2/3/22 2/2/23 2/1/24 1/30/25 2/5/26 - - -
1USD in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Shell plc

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 19,000 22,600 22,993 19,601 18,947 20,803 20,559 20,852
Change - 18.95% 1.74% -14.75% -3.34% 9.79% -1.17% 1.42%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 40,345 45,814 36,460 39,530 26,052 35,411 26,094 31,838
Change - 13.56% -20.42% 8.42% -34.1% 35.92% -26.31% 22.01%
Announcement Date 2/3/22 2/2/23 2/1/24 1/30/25 2/5/26 - - -
1USD in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Shell plc

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 21.03% 22.1% 21.65% 23.14% 21.03% 22.61% 21.92% 20.66%
EBIT Margin (%) 12.52% 16.42% 11.76% 15.16% 12.73% 15.21% 13.55% 12.69%
EBT Margin (%) 11.41% 17% 10.31% 10.52% 11.15% 14.56% 12.46% 11.53%
Net margin (%) 7.69% 11.1% 6.11% 5.66% 6.68% 9.75% 8.75% 8.37%
FCF margin (%) 15.43% 12.01% 11.52% 13.9% 9.76% 10.75% 8.83% 10.53%
FCF / Net Income (%) 200.71% 108.28% 188.33% 245.63% 146.05% 110.28% 100.99% 125.91%

Profitability

        
ROA 4.92% 9.41% 6.7% 5.97% 4.89% 8.6% 7.02% 6.08%
ROE 11.79% 23.35% 15% 13% 10.51% 17.2% 12.82% 11.98%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 0.96x 0.53x 0.64x 0.59x 0.81x 0.52x 0.55x 0.56x
Debt / Free cash flow 1.3x 0.98x 1.19x 0.98x 1.75x 1.1x 1.37x 1.09x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 7.27% 5.93% 7.26% 6.89% 7.1% 6.31% 6.96% 6.9%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 34.54% 26.81% 33.55% 29.79% 33.75% 27.93% 31.75% 33.4%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 47.09% 49.33% 63.06% 49.59% 72.73% 58.75% 78.79% 65.49%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 5.778 9.232 7.97 8.593 7.206 9.58 8.977 9.289
Change - 59.79% -13.67% 7.82% -16.15% 32.95% -6.29% 3.48%
Dividend per Share 1 0.8935 0.99 1.294 1.39 1.446 1.557 1.621 1.692
Change - 10.8% 30.66% 7.46% 4.03% 7.69% 4.08% 4.39%
Book Value Per Share 1 22.38 27.2 28.6 29.16 30.5 33.77 36.12 38.92
Change - 21.53% 5.16% 1.95% 4.59% 10.74% 6.95% 7.77%
EPS 1 2.57 5.71 2.85 2.53 3 5.651 4.764 4.562
Change - 122.18% -50.09% -11.23% 18.58% 88.37% -15.7% -4.25%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 7,640,301 7,003,503 6,524,109 6,115,031 5,720,615 5,554,392 5,554,392 5,554,392
Announcement Date 2/3/22 2/2/23 2/1/24 1/30/25 2/5/26 - - -
1USD
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E 8.02x 9.52x
PBR 1.34x 1.26x
EV / Sales 0.88x 0.97x
Yield 3.43% 3.58%

EPS & Dividend

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
A
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts
18
Last Close Price
45.34USD
Average target price
50.14USD
Spread / Average Target
+10.60%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise