Projected Income Statement: Shell plc

Forecast Balance Sheet: Shell plc

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 52,555 44,837 43,541 38,809 45,687 39,800 33,752 31,722
Change - -14.69% -2.89% -10.87% 17.72% -12.89% -15.2% -6.01%
Announcement Date 2/3/22 2/2/23 2/1/24 1/30/25 2/5/26 - - -
1USD in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Shell plc

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 19,000 22,600 22,993 19,601 18,947 20,974 20,865 21,385
Change - 18.95% 1.74% -14.75% -3.34% 10.7% -0.52% 2.5%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 40,345 45,814 36,460 39,530 26,052 34,411 31,148 28,091
Change - 13.56% -20.42% 8.42% -34.1% 32.08% -9.48% -9.81%
Announcement Date 2/3/22 2/2/23 2/1/24 1/30/25 2/5/26 - - -
1USD in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Shell plc

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 21.03% 22.1% 21.65% 23.14% 21.03% 22.72% 22% 20.75%
EBIT Margin (%) 12.52% 16.42% 11.76% 15.16% 12.73% 16.16% 14.39% 13.02%
EBT Margin (%) 11.41% 17% 10.31% 10.52% 11.15% 13.72% 12.51% 11.42%
Net margin (%) 7.69% 11.1% 6.11% 5.66% 6.68% 8.69% 7.91% 7.54%
FCF margin (%) 15.43% 12.01% 11.52% 13.9% 9.76% 10.38% 9.96% 9.32%
FCF / Net Income (%) 200.71% 108.28% 188.33% 245.63% 146.05% 119.42% 125.9% 123.56%

Profitability

        
ROA 4.92% 9.41% 6.7% 5.97% 4.89% 7.59% 6.63% 5.65%
ROE 11.79% 23.35% 15% 13% 10.51% 17.89% 14.77% 12.74%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 0.96x 0.53x 0.64x 0.59x 0.81x 0.53x 0.49x 0.51x
Debt / Free cash flow 1.3x 0.98x 1.19x 0.98x 1.75x 1.16x 1.08x 1.13x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 7.27% 5.93% 7.26% 6.89% 7.1% 6.33% 6.67% 7.09%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 34.54% 26.81% 33.55% 29.79% 33.75% 27.85% 30.33% 34.18%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 47.09% 49.33% 63.06% 49.59% 72.73% 60.95% 66.99% 76.13%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 5.778 9.232 7.97 8.593 7.206 10.94 9.816 9.865
Change - 59.79% -13.67% 7.82% -16.15% 51.82% -10.27% 0.5%
Dividend per Share 1 0.8935 0.99 1.294 1.39 1.446 1.559 1.63 1.706
Change - 10.8% 30.66% 7.46% 4.03% 7.78% 4.6% 4.62%
Book Value Per Share 1 22.38 27.2 28.6 29.16 30.5 33.08 35.73 39.84
Change - 21.53% 5.16% 1.95% 4.59% 8.49% 7.99% 11.5%
EPS 1 2.57 5.71 2.85 2.53 3 5.78 5.052 4.94
Change - 122.18% -50.09% -11.23% 18.58% 92.68% -12.6% -2.22%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 7,640,301 7,003,503 6,524,109 6,115,031 5,720,615 5,734,915 5,734,915 5,734,915
Announcement Date 2/3/22 2/2/23 2/1/24 1/30/25 2/5/26 - - -
1USD
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E 8.27x 9.46x
PBR 1.45x 1.34x
EV / Sales 0.95x 0.99x
Yield 3.26% 3.41%

EPS & Dividend



Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

 

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
A
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts
18
Last Close Price
47.81USD
Average target price
51.93USD
Spread / Average Target
+8.61%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise