Projected Income Statement: Novartis AG

Forecast Balance Sheet: Novartis AG

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 8,191 9,034 12,011 17,944 23,867 32,680 27,818 20,873
Change - 10.29% 32.95% 49.4% 33.01% 36.93% -14.88% -24.97%
Announcement Date 2/2/22 2/1/23 1/31/24 1/31/25 2/4/26 - - -
1USD in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Novartis AG

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 1,378 1,198 1,060 1,366 1,548 1,820 2,050 2,349
Change - -13.06% -11.52% 28.87% 13.32% 17.57% 12.62% 14.59%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 13,282 11,945 13,179 16,253 17,596 15,385 16,903 19,355
Change - -10.07% 10.33% 23.32% 8.26% -12.57% 9.87% 14.5%
Announcement Date 2/2/22 2/1/23 1/31/24 1/31/25 2/4/26 - - -
1USD in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Novartis AG

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 35.34% 36.82% 38.44% 40.61% 41.32% 40.33% 41.1% 41.73%
EBIT Margin (%) 32.13% 32.97% 35.09% 37.69% 38.62% 37.81% 38.58% 39.35%
EBT Margin (%) 50.63% 16.56% 19.55% 26.37% 28.85% 28.24% 30.08% 31.28%
Net margin (%) 46.53% 13.76% 31.83% 23.08% 24.64% 24.2% 25.29% 26.64%
FCF margin (%) 25.73% 23.63% 28.24% 31.42% 31.05% 26.69% 27.57% 29.69%
FCF / Net Income (%) 55.29% 171.75% 88.72% 136.13% 125.98% 110.28% 109.04% 111.44%

Profitability

        
ROA 10.86% 10.71% 12.37% 15.58% 16.33% 13.95% 14.61% 15.16%
ROE 22.69% 21.03% 25.37% 34.74% 38.4% 35.85% 38.82% 39.39%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 0.45x 0.49x 0.67x 0.85x 1.02x 1.41x 1.1x 0.77x
Debt / Free cash flow 0.62x 0.76x 0.91x 1.1x 1.36x 2.12x 1.65x 1.08x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 2.67% 2.37% 2.27% 2.64% 2.73% 3.16% 3.34% 3.6%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 7.55% 6.44% 5.91% 6.5% 6.61% 7.83% 8.13% 8.63%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 10.37% 10.03% 8.04% 8.4% 8.8% 11.83% 12.13% 12.14%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 6.669 6.48 6.911 8.658 9.792 9.512 10.95 12.42
Change - -2.83% 6.65% 25.28% 13.1% -2.86% 15.16% 13.35%
Dividend per Share 1 3.36 3.5 3.823 3.856 - 4.37 4.558 4.741
Change - 4.17% 9.23% 0.88% - - 4.3% 4.03%
Book Value Per Share 1 30.28 28 22.83 21.64 24.18 25.01 26.82 29.86
Change - -7.55% -18.45% -5.2% 11.69% 3.45% 7.24% 11.32%
EPS 1 10.71 3.19 7.15 5.92 7.21 7.045 8.283 9.485
Change - -70.21% 124.14% -17.2% 21.79% -2.29% 17.58% 14.52%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 2,237,092 2,150,980 2,055,460 1,999,270 1,918,792 1,900,715 1,900,715 1,900,715
Announcement Date 2/2/22 2/1/23 1/31/24 1/31/25 2/4/26 - - -
1USD
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E 22.9x 19.5x
PBR 6.46x 6.03x
EV / Sales 5.89x 5.46x
Yield 2.7% 2.82%

EPS & Dividend



Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

 

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
-
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
HOLD
Number of Analysts
22
Last Close Price
161.59USD
Average target price
154.40USD
Spread / Average Target
-4.45%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise