Projected Income Statement: Allegion plc

Forecast Balance Sheet: Allegion plc

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 1,044 1,807 1,547 1,496 1,624 1,522 1,028 1,038
Change - 73.08% -14.39% -3.3% 8.56% -6.28% -32.46% 0.97%
Announcement Date 2/15/22 2/22/23 2/20/24 2/18/25 2/17/26 - - -
1USD in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Allegion plc

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 45.4 64 84.2 92.1 98.1 103.5 115.8 110.3
Change - 40.97% 31.56% 9.38% 6.51% 5.55% 11.86% -4.78%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 443.2 395.5 516.4 582.9 685.7 689.7 773.1 867
Change - -10.76% 30.57% 12.88% 17.64% 0.58% 12.1% 12.14%
Announcement Date 2/15/22 2/22/23 2/20/24 2/18/25 2/17/26 - - -
1USD in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Allegion plc

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 21.57% 22.09% 23.52% 24.37% 24.79% 24.97% 25.37% 25.88%
EBIT Margin (%) 18.82% 19.46% 22.07% 22.82% 23.21% 23.23% 23.64% 24.06%
EBT Margin (%) 18.27% 15.72% 16.91% 18.52% 18.89% 19.47% 20.96% 21.86%
Net margin (%) 16.84% 14% 14.8% 15.84% 15.83% 16.01% 17.34% 17.87%
FCF margin (%) 15.46% 12.09% 14.14% 15.45% 16.86% 15.63% 16.7% 17.82%
FCF / Net Income (%) 91.76% 86.35% 95.56% 97.56% 106.51% 97.64% 96.31% 99.71%

Profitability

        
ROA 15.78% 13.01% 13.02% 13.58% 13.26% 13.6% 13.6% 13.4%
ROE 60.56% 53.85% 47.82% 42.39% 36.08% 33.03% 29.56% 26.14%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 1.69x 2.5x 1.8x 1.63x 1.61x 1.38x 0.88x 0.82x
Debt / Free cash flow 2.36x 4.57x 3x 2.57x 2.37x 2.21x 1.33x 1.2x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 1.58% 1.96% 2.31% 2.44% 2.41% 2.35% 2.5% 2.27%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 7.34% 8.85% 9.81% 10.02% 9.73% 9.4% 9.86% 8.76%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 10.24% 16.18% 16.31% 15.8% 14.31% 15.01% 14.98% 12.72%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 5.399 5.204 6.8 7.706 9.051 9.718 10.76 -
Change - -3.61% 30.67% 13.32% 17.46% 7.37% 10.75% -
Dividend per Share 1 1.44 1.64 1.8 1.92 2.04 2.251 2.427 2.818
Change - 13.89% 9.76% 6.67% 6.25% 10.34% 7.84% 16.11%
Book Value Per Share 1 8.424 10.7 14.93 17.21 24.01 27.04 35.04 44.26
Change - 26.97% 39.58% 15.27% 39.54% 12.6% 29.59% 26.31%
EPS 1 5.34 5.19 6.12 6.82 7.44 8.179 9.11 10.4
Change - -2.81% 17.92% 11.44% 9.09% 9.93% 11.38% 14.12%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 89,696 87,845 87,788 86,929 86,032 85,037 85,037 85,037
Announcement Date 2/15/22 2/22/23 2/20/24 2/18/25 2/17/26 - - -
1USD
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E 19.7x 17.7x
PBR 5.96x 4.6x
EV / Sales 3.45x 3.18x
Yield 1.4% 1.51%

EPS & Dividend

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
A
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts
11
Last Close Price
161.23USD
Average target price
169.82USD
Spread / Average Target
+5.33%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise