Projected Income Statement: Allegion plc

Forecast Balance Sheet: Allegion plc

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 1,044 1,807 1,547 1,496 1,624 1,468 1,068 699
Change - 73.08% -14.39% -3.3% 8.56% -9.6% -27.25% -34.55%
Announcement Date 2/15/22 2/22/23 2/20/24 2/18/25 2/17/26 - - -
1USD in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Allegion plc

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 45.4 64 84.2 92.1 98.1 103.5 110.8 117.7
Change - 40.97% 31.56% 9.38% 6.51% 5.55% 7.03% 6.22%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 443.2 395.5 516.4 582.9 685.7 689.4 769.6 831.7
Change - -10.76% 30.57% 12.88% 17.64% 0.54% 11.63% 8.06%
Announcement Date 2/15/22 2/22/23 2/20/24 2/18/25 2/17/26 - - -
1USD in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Allegion plc

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 21.57% 22.09% 23.52% 24.37% 24.79% 25% 25.43% 25.83%
EBIT Margin (%) 18.82% 19.46% 22.07% 22.82% 23.21% 23.26% 23.69% 24.05%
EBT Margin (%) 18.27% 15.72% 16.91% 18.52% 18.89% 19.48% 20.96% 21.52%
Net margin (%) 16.84% 14% 14.8% 15.84% 15.83% 15.92% 17.12% 17.6%
FCF margin (%) 15.46% 12.09% 14.14% 15.45% 16.86% 15.62% 16.59% 17.08%
FCF / Net Income (%) 91.76% 86.35% 95.56% 97.56% 106.51% 98.12% 96.9% 97.02%

Profitability

        
ROA 15.78% 13.01% 13.02% 13.58% 13.26% 13.6% 13.77% 13.57%
ROE 60.56% 53.85% 47.82% 42.39% 36.08% 34.18% 31.3% 27.53%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 1.69x 2.5x 1.8x 1.63x 1.61x 1.33x 0.91x 0.56x
Debt / Free cash flow 2.36x 4.57x 3x 2.57x 2.37x 2.13x 1.39x 0.84x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 1.58% 1.96% 2.31% 2.44% 2.41% 2.35% 2.39% 2.42%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 7.34% 8.85% 9.81% 10.02% 9.73% 9.38% 9.4% 9.36%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 10.24% 16.18% 16.31% 15.8% 14.31% 15.02% 14.4% 14.15%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 5.399 5.204 6.8 7.706 9.051 9.718 10.76 -
Change - -3.61% 30.67% 13.32% 17.46% 7.37% 10.75% -
Dividend per Share 1 1.44 1.64 1.8 1.92 2.04 2.23 2.421 2.664
Change - 13.89% 9.76% 6.67% 6.25% 9.3% 8.59% 10.03%
Book Value Per Share 1 8.424 10.7 14.93 17.21 24.01 27.89 34.11 41.13
Change - 26.97% 39.58% 15.27% 39.54% 16.13% 22.3% 20.59%
EPS 1 5.34 5.19 6.12 6.82 7.44 8.184 9.13 10.25
Change - -2.81% 17.92% 11.44% 9.09% 10% 11.55% 12.23%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 89,696 87,845 87,788 86,929 86,032 85,037 85,037 85,037
Announcement Date 2/15/22 2/22/23 2/20/24 2/18/25 2/17/26 - - -
1USD
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E 19.2x 17.2x
PBR 5.63x 4.61x
EV / Sales 3.36x 3.11x
Yield 1.42% 1.54%

EPS & Dividend



Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

 

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
A
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts
11
Last Close Price
157.12USD
Average target price
174.64USD
Spread / Average Target
+11.15%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise