The Polish parcel delivery group posted 18.2% revenue growth in the second quarter, driven by its international expansion. Profitability, however, was weighed down by the transformation of its UK operations. The result: InPost is lowering its adjusted EBITDA outlook for 2026.
InPost generated adjusted net profit of 132.9m zlotys (MPLN) in the second quarter of 2026, down 50.1% year-on-year. Reported net profit came in at 93 MPLN (-30.2%), or reported EPS of 0.19 PLN, compared with 0.28 PLN a year earlier.
Revenue, meanwhile, rose 18.2% to 4.18bn PLN, with parcel volumes up 16% to 380.9 MPLN. By region, parcel growth reached 30% in the euro zone, 16% in the UK and Ireland, and 9% in Poland.
Adjusted EBITDA totaled 1.04bn PLN, up 4.4% year-on-year. Its margin, however, narrowed by 330 basis points to 25%. The group's free cash flow was negative at 131.4 MPLN in the second quarter, versus a negative flow of 9.2 MPLN a year earlier. Capital expenditure rose 7% to 503.8 MPLN, mainly due to the production and rollout of automated lockers.
For 2026, InPost is cutting its adjusted EBITDA growth forecast and now expects a decline of about 4% to 6%, having previously guided for stability. The group still expects revenue and volume growth of around 15%.
Jefferies stays at 'hold'
In response to the release, Jefferies reiterated its 'hold' rating on the stock, with an unchanged price target of €15.60. The broker said second-quarter results were broadly in line, while the downgrade to the full-year outlook reflects investments in Poland and a longer-than-expected transformation in the UK.
The research firm noted that volume growth in the third quarter is expected to remain limited to a low single-digit pace, weighed down by changes to European customs duties affecting marketplace volumes.
According to Jefferies, the €15.60 target matches the consortium shareholders' offer price, while the likelihood of a counterbid is viewed as relatively low.
InPost S.A. (InPost) is a leading e-commerce enablement platform. Founded in 1999 by Rafal Brzoska in Poland, InPost provides delivery services through its network of 61,196 Automated Parcel Machines (APMs), including 28,165 in Poland and 18,518 in the United Kingdom and Italy, as well as to-door couriers and fulfilment services to e-commerce merchants.
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