Projected Income Statement: Orica Limited

Forecast Balance Sheet: Orica Limited

Fiscal Period: September 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 1,739 1,152 1,220 1,940 2,258 2,429 2,157 1,892
Change - -33.76% 5.9% 59.02% 16.39% 7.57% -11.2% -12.29%
Announcement Date 11/10/21 11/8/22 11/8/23 11/13/24 11/12/25 - - -
1AUD in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Orica Limited

Fiscal Period: September 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 305.4 319.1 439.1 456.4 414.5 447.3 443.9 456.7
Change - 4.49% 37.61% 3.94% -9.18% 7.91% -0.76% 2.9%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 313.5 43.2 459.6 351.1 534.7 302.9 878.9 991.5
Change - -86.22% 963.89% -23.61% 52.29% -43.36% 190.19% 12.81%
Announcement Date 11/10/21 11/8/22 11/8/23 11/13/24 11/12/25 - - -
1AUD in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Orica Limited

Fiscal Period: September 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 14.02% 13.16% 13.73% 16.15% 18.31% 19.19% 19.77% 20.18%
EBIT Margin (%) 7.51% 7.89% 8.79% 10.51% 12.18% 12.86% 13.54% 14.01%
EBT Margin (%) -2.34% 2.79% 4.82% 5.79% 5.25% 8.89% 11.18% 11.8%
Net margin (%) -3.06% 0.82% 3.72% 6.85% 1.99% 3.32% 7.7% 8.17%
FCF margin (%) 5.52% 0.59% 5.78% 4.58% 6.57% 3.73% 10.44% 11.46%
FCF / Net Income (%) -180.38% 71.88% 155.43% 66.93% 329.45% 112.26% 135.6% 140.2%

Profitability

        
ROA 2.68% 4.03% 4.31% 4.46% 5.54% 7.43% 8.65% 9.2%
ROE 7.42% 9.89% 9.62% 9.69% 12.53% 14.62% 16.42% 16.95%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 2.18x 1.19x 1.12x 1.57x 1.51x 1.56x 1.3x 1.08x
Debt / Free cash flow 5.55x 26.66x 2.65x 5.53x 4.22x 8.02x 2.45x 1.91x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 5.37% 4.35% 5.53% 5.96% 5.09% 5.51% 5.27% 5.28%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 38.35% 33.09% 40.26% 36.88% 27.8% 28.69% 26.67% 26.15%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 97.42% 738.66% 95.54% 129.99% 77.52% 147.67% 50.5% 46.06%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 1.522 0.8681 1.979 1.684 1.94 1.495 2.526 2.678
Change - -42.95% 127.92% -14.86% 15.18% -22.95% 68.95% 6.02%
Dividend per Share 1 0.24 0.35 0.43 0.47 0.57 0.628 0.7269 0.802
Change - 45.83% 22.86% 9.3% 21.28% 10.17% 15.75% 10.34%
Book Value Per Share 1 6.69 8.14 8.757 9.156 8.913 8.125 8.648 9.124
Change - 21.67% 7.58% 4.56% -2.65% -8.84% 6.43% 5.5%
EPS 1 -0.427 0.145 0.645 0.854 0.332 0.8616 1.395 1.534
Change - 133.96% 344.83% 32.4% -61.12% 159.53% 61.95% 9.92%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 407,513 455,494 455,492 487,010 467,564 463,543 463,543 463,543
Announcement Date 11/10/21 11/8/22 11/8/23 11/13/24 11/12/25 - - -
1AUD
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E 25.7x 15.9x
PBR 2.72x 2.56x
EV / Sales 1.56x 1.48x
Yield 2.84% 3.28%

EPS & Dividend

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
AA
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
BUY
Number of Analysts
15
Last Close Price
22.14AUD
Average target price
25.87AUD
Spread / Average Target
+16.86%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise