Projected Income Statement: Longfor Group Holdings Limited

Forecast Balance Sheet: Longfor Group Holdings Limited

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 140,193 135,384 175,910 126,906 123,608 116,604 107,088 97,216
Change - -3.43% 29.93% -27.86% -2.6% -5.67% -8.16% -9.22%
Announcement Date 3/25/22 3/17/23 3/22/24 3/28/25 3/27/26 - - -
1CNY in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Longfor Group Holdings Limited

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 522.9 154.1 849.8 5,838 4,995 7,717 8,420 10,141
Change - -70.52% 451.4% 587.03% -14.44% 54.49% 9.11% 20.43%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 28,009 9,807 32,898 23,907 16,881 26,109 18,189 13,245
Change - -64.99% 235.45% -27.33% -29.39% 54.67% -30.34% -27.18%
Announcement Date 3/25/22 3/17/23 3/22/24 3/28/25 3/27/26 - - -
1CNY in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Longfor Group Holdings Limited

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 18.24% 16.5% 11.13% 9.47% 3.28% 0.68% 8.59% 12.83%
EBIT Margin (%) 18.02% 16.33% 10.97% 9.19% 2.95% 0.11% 11.24% 13.84%
EBT Margin (%) 21.32% 18.29% 13.68% 14.69% 5.38% 7.68% 12.28% 15.02%
Net margin (%) 10.68% 9.72% 7.11% 8.16% 1.05% -3.03% 7.84% 7.41%
FCF margin (%) 12.54% 3.91% 18.2% 18.75% 17.35% 32.79% 26.48% 20.64%
FCF / Net Income (%) 117.42% 40.26% 256.02% 229.85% 1,652% -1,081.92% 337.86% 278.57%

Profitability

        
ROA 2.91% 2.71% 2.62% 1.52% 0.16% -0.2% 0.83% 0.96%
ROE 20.45% 16.88% 8.74% 6.64% 0.63% -2.26% 2.5% 3.02%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 3.44x 3.27x 8.74x 10.51x 38.7x 215.39x 18.14x 11.81x
Debt / Free cash flow 5.01x 13.8x 5.35x 5.31x 7.32x 4.47x 5.89x 7.34x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 0.23% 0.06% 0.47% 4.58% 5.13% 9.69% 12.26% 15.81%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 1.28% 0.37% 4.22% 48.37% 156.41% 1,425.55% 142.65% 123.14%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 1.87% 1.57% 2.58% 24.42% 29.59% 29.56% 46.29% 76.57%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 4.768 1.657 5.294 4.501 3.21 1.433 2.683 2.236
Change - -65.24% 219.52% -14.99% -28.68% -55.36% 87.25% -16.65%
Dividend per Share 1 1.7 1.13 0.55 0.32 0.07 0.001 0.1091 0.1867
Change - -33.53% -51.33% -41.82% -78.12% -98.57% 10,813% 71.11%
Book Value Per Share 1 21.2 22.62 24.38 24.48 23.98 22.92 23.52 24.18
Change - 6.71% 7.75% 0.41% -2.02% -4.4% 2.6% 2.78%
EPS 1 3.99 4.05 2.06 1.57 0.15 -0.3129 0.6914 0.7734
Change - 1.5% -49.14% -23.79% -90.45% -308.59% 320.98% 11.86%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 6,074,310 6,281,542 6,591,755 6,888,163 7,041,631 7,097,403 7,097,403 7,097,403
Announcement Date 3/25/22 3/17/23 3/22/24 3/28/25 3/27/26 - - -
1CNY
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E -15.5x 7.02x
PBR 0.21x 0.21x
EV / Sales 1.9x 2.06x
Yield 0.02% 2.25%

EPS & Dividend



Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

 

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
-
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts
18
Last Close Price
4.852CNY
Average target price
7.622CNY
Spread / Average Target
+57.09%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise

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