Projected Income Statement: Axfood AB

Forecast Balance Sheet: Axfood AB

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 7,640 8,982 9,339 14,861 14,598 14,693 14,035 13,685
Change - 17.57% 3.97% 59.13% -1.77% 0.65% -4.48% -2.49%
Announcement Date 2/3/22 2/1/23 2/1/24 1/30/25 1/29/26 - - -
1SEK in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Axfood AB

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 3,842 2,593 1,946 1,539 1,730 2,202 1,873 2,393
Change - -32.51% -24.95% -20.91% 12.41% 27.31% -14.96% 27.76%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 2,765 3,334 3,861 3,920 5,021 3,907 4,930 4,791
Change - 20.58% 15.81% 1.53% 28.09% -22.19% 26.21% -2.83%
Announcement Date 2/3/22 2/1/23 2/1/24 1/30/25 1/29/26 - - -
1SEK in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Axfood AB

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 8.81% 7.78% 7.82% 7.93% 8.58% 8.74% 8.88% 8.87%
EBIT Margin (%) 4.65% 4.39% 4.44% 4.08% 4.14% 4.19% 4.36% 4.39%
EBT Margin (%) 4.46% 3.99% 3.74% 3.43% 3.4% 3.55% 3.8% 3.86%
Net margin (%) 3.71% 3.21% 2.91% 2.61% 2.62% 2.79% 2.99% 3.04%
FCF margin (%) 4.78% 4.54% 4.76% 4.66% 5.63% 4.29% 5.21% 4.89%
FCF / Net Income (%) 128.6% 141.27% 163.81% 178.83% 214.66% 153.76% 173.96% 160.87%

Profitability

        
ROA 10.11% 9.02% 8.04% 6.7% - - - -
ROE 46.32% 40.8% 35% 31.47% 32.13% 32.88% 34.5% 32.82%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 1.5x 1.57x 1.47x 2.23x 1.91x 1.84x 1.67x 1.57x
Debt / Free cash flow 2.76x 2.69x 2.42x 3.79x 2.91x 3.76x 2.85x 2.86x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 6.64% 3.53% 2.4% 1.83% 1.94% 2.42% 1.98% 2.44%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 75.29% 45.36% 30.67% 23.09% 22.62% 27.65% 22.27% 27.52%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 138.95% 77.77% 50.4% 39.26% 34.46% 56.38% 37.99% 49.95%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 21.87 27.69 26.78 25.18 31.14 24.86 25.88 26.71
Change - 26.62% -3.29% -5.99% 23.67% -20.16% 4.1% 3.23%
Dividend per Share 1 7.75 8.15 8.5 8.75 9 9.479 9.993 10.39
Change - 5.16% 4.29% 2.94% 2.86% 5.32% 5.43% 4%
Book Value Per Share 1 23.59 30.62 31.72 32.53 34.77 35.75 39.71 43.84
Change - 29.79% 3.56% 2.56% 6.9% 2.8% 11.08% 10.4%
EPS 1 10.24 10.99 10.87 10.11 10.79 11.58 12.93 13.6
Change - 7.32% -1.09% -6.99% 6.73% 7.35% 11.59% 5.25%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 209,105 215,805 215,778 215,745 215,922 215,884 215,884 215,884
Announcement Date 2/3/22 2/1/23 2/1/24 1/30/25 1/29/26 - - -
1SEK
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E 21.1x 18.9x
PBR 6.83x 6.15x
EV / Sales 0.74x 0.7x
Yield 3.88% 4.09%

EPS & Dividend



Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

 

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
-
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts
7
Last Close Price
244.10SEK
Average target price
254.17SEK
Spread / Average Target
+4.12%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise