Projected Income Statement: Afya Limited

Forecast Balance Sheet: Afya Limited

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 626 1,622 2,122 2,262 1,995 1,337 1,549 1,508
Change - 159.11% 30.83% 6.6% -11.8% -32.97% 15.86% -2.65%
Announcement Date 3/31/22 3/22/23 3/14/24 3/13/25 3/12/26 - - -
1BRL in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Afya Limited

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 276.8 297 245.4 392.6 364 392.1 395 407.9
Change - 7.31% -17.37% 59.97% -7.29% 7.72% 0.74% 3.27%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 354.1 546.9 798.2 1,040 1,168 1,251 1,153 1,218
Change - 54.46% 45.96% 30.3% 12.26% 7.15% -7.83% 5.64%
Announcement Date 3/31/22 3/22/23 3/14/24 3/13/25 3/12/26 - - -
1BRL in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Afya Limited

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 43.9% 41.3% 40.53% 44.05% 45.45% 43.1% 42.76% 42.58%
EBIT Margin (%) 34.93% 32.45% 26.67% 33.96% 35.35% 33.3% 32.59% 32.71%
EBT Margin (%) 15.9% 18.4% 14.94% 20.47% 23.29% 23.77% 24.55% 24.83%
Net margin (%) 12.99% 16.04% 13.43% 19.11% 20.35% 19.91% 20.85% 21.4%
FCF margin (%) 20.59% 23.48% 27.75% 31.48% 31.58% 31.45% 27.13% 27.14%
FCF / Net Income (%) 158.54% 146.39% 206.61% 164.69% 155.17% 157.96% 130.08% 126.78%

Profitability

        
ROA 7.5% 7.56% 8% 10% 9.92% 8.45% 8.35% 8.86%
ROE 14.71% 16.79% 17.39% 20.86% 19.77% 16.75% 17.72% 18.62%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 0.83x 1.69x 1.82x 1.55x 1.19x 0.78x 0.85x 0.79x
Debt / Free cash flow 1.77x 2.97x 2.66x 2.18x 1.71x 1.07x 1.34x 1.24x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 16.1% 12.75% 8.53% 11.88% 9.85% 9.86% 9.29% 9.09%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 36.67% 30.88% 21.05% 26.97% 21.66% 22.87% 21.73% 21.34%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 78.18% 54.31% 30.75% 37.75% 31.18% 31.34% 34.26% 33.49%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 6.704 9.307 11.54 15.72 16.78 10.98 12.32 -
Change - 38.83% 23.94% 36.25% 6.77% -34.55% 12.19% -
Dividend per Share 1 - - - - 3.447 3.225 5.213 10.2
Change - - - - - -6.43% 61.64% 95.68%
Book Value Per Share 1 31.6 35.41 39.81 46.84 53.63 59.37 61.09 59.02
Change - 12.05% 12.42% 17.67% 14.48% 10.71% 2.9% -3.39%
EPS 1 2.37 4.12 4.27 6.93 8.24 8.753 9.764 10.63
Change - 73.84% 3.64% 62.3% 18.9% 6.23% 11.55% 8.89%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 92,902 89,937 89,812 90,230 90,698 88,478 88,478 88,478
Announcement Date 3/31/22 3/22/23 3/14/24 3/13/25 3/12/26 - - -
1BRL
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E 8.04x 7.2x
PBR 1.18x 1.15x
EV / Sales 1.9x 1.83x
Yield 4.59% 7.41%

EPS & Dividend



Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

 

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
-
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
UNDERPERFORM
Number of Analysts
9
Last Close Price
70.34BRL
Average target price
87.61BRL
Spread / Average Target
+24.55%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise

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