The Paris Bourse remains close to equilibrium, with a symbolic decline of -0.1% to -0.2%, around a pivot point of 7,285 points. The Euro-Stoxx50 remains positive by a handful of points, and scores are unchanged a few minutes after Wall Street opened slightly down (Dow Jones -0.4%, S&P -0.2%).
Inflation figures in France rebounded more than expected (consumer prices in France are forecast to rise by 6.2% in February 2023, after +6% the previous month), as well as in Europe.
The context remains marked by uncertainties linked to the evolution of central banks' monetary policies: "final rate" targets have risen by +50 points compared with early January (5.60% for the FED and 4% for the ECB).

Moreover, markets have been moving without any clear direction in recent sessions: after -1.8% on Friday, Paris gained 1.5% yesterday, but for the time being is not in a position to continue this upward momentum.

After a strong start to the year, the bullish momentum has now come to a halt, and investors are asking themselves: is the pause of recent weeks only temporary, or could it be prolonged?

While the previous day's upturn suggests renewed optimism about growth, the market's recent procrastination also reflects a certain fatigue after the sharp rise at the start of the year.
And above all, over the past 4 weeks, asset allocations have largely favoured Europe, with the CAC40 gaining +3.3% and the Euro-Stoxx50 gaining +2.5%, since the performance of US indices has been almost the opposite.
The Dow Jones lost -3.3% in February, the S&P500 -2.5% and the Nasdaq -1%.

Against this backdrop, investors are keeping a close eye on statistical releases. This morning, the slowdown in growth in France was confirmed. In the fourth quarter of 2022, France's GDP growth in volume terms slowed again (+0.1% quarter-on-quarter, after +0.2% in the third quarter), according to detailed CVS-CJO data from Insee, which thus confirms its first estimate.
With imports down (-0.4%) and exports still on the rise (+0.5%), the contribution of foreign trade is positive (+0.3 points), as is that of changes in inventories (+0.2 points).
The rise in the inflation rate to 6.2% is due to the acceleration in food and services prices.
Manufactured goods prices are expected to rise year-on-year at a rate close to that of the previous month, while energy prices are expected to slow, according to Insee's provisional end-of-month estimate.
French household consumption expenditure on goods will rise sharply over one month, by 1.5% in volume terms, following a fall of 1.6% in December 2022 (revised from an initial estimate of -1.3%), according to Insee's CVS-CJO data.
This rebound is mainly due to the strong increase in energy consumption (+4%) as a result of the energy voucher scheme.

Lastly, in January 2023, producer prices in French industry accelerated over one month (+1.6% after +1%), due to the strong acceleration in those for products destined for the French market (+2.7%), while those for products destined for foreign markets declined (-1.7%).

On the bond front, the deterioration continues, with long yields flirting with their worst levels since late December and even mid-October: our OATs are +12pts at 3.178% (the worst level for 12 years, with the 2-year at 3.25%), Bunds +11pts at 2.697%, Italian BTPs +13.5pts at 4.558%, and British Gilts +11.5pts at 3.9250%.

US T-Bonds fared best with +6.1pts to 3.9830%, but the '6 months' posted 5.16% and the '1 year' 5.05%.

In company news, Casino is forecasting sales of €33.6 billion for 2022, up 10% on a reported basis and 5.2% on a comparable basis, "driven by Latin America and buoyant formats in France, in an environment marked by inflation".

On Tuesday, EDF announced the conversion of 40% of its OCEANE bonds maturing in 2024, in accordance with a request made by the French government as part of the process of renationalizing the electricity company.

AXA announced the successful sale of 100 million Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena shares, representing around 7.94% of the Italian bank's capital, at a price of 2.33 euros per share, for a total amount of 233 million euros.

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