Analysis: Interest Rates

Interest rates: Has the risk of recession been definitively averted?

In 2022, all the media and the majority of economists were predicting the imminent onset of recession in the US, due to a particularly rapid cycle of monetary tightening. Nearly two years later, with...

Rates: To infinity and beyond

Thanks Buzz. The breach of the 4.60% mark on the US 10-year yield puts paid to our long-term scenario of an intermediate recovery before a new downward salvo. It's time to update all this and take...

In the Market: Economic surprises are messing with the market's favorite recession predictor

A bond market anomaly that has reliably predicted a U.S. recession in the past may normalize this year in a highly unusual manner. It's a worry for markets. The market signal, called a...

US bond price slide puts buyers to the test: McGeever

The latest figures showing the surprising - some would say alarming - durability of U.S. inflation are also re-focusing the spotlight on the source and strength of demand for U.S. Treasuries. ...

Interest rates: Want more?

Bond yields are approaching critical levels, which it would be wise not to overshoot if you want to keep the equity markets on track. In the meantime, if you want to know when the Fed will cut rates,...

Analysis-US bond bulls lean into latest selloff despite inflation scare

A sharp selloff in U.S. bonds so far in April is prompting some investors to consider allocating more funds to the asset class to lock in higher yields ahead of interest rate cuts by the Federal...

Rate: What a difference a week makes

The canary isn't dead yet, but he's already in respiratory distress. Doctor Benton, do we intubate or wait?

Rates: A lethal lack of harmony?

Last week, central bankers, especially in the US, made a series of outbursts that somewhat blurred their rhetoric and sowed doubts in the minds of investors. The high level of inflation now seems ...

US bond manager PIMCO sees Fed rate cuts midyear, but gradual easing

The Federal Reserve is likely to start cutting interest rates midyear but the easing cycle will be more gradual in the United States than in other developed markets, U.S. bond giant PIMCO said on...

Rates: Managing expectations

We were eagerly awaiting Friday to get the latest data about US inflation.

Interest rates: Closing the gap!

At the end of a busy week of central bank meetings of all kinds, the main thing to remember is that the US Federal Reserve played the tune expected by most investors. The program includes a first rate...

Interest rates: Knock-knock, it's inflation!

Intoxicated by the rise in equity markets and promises of future rate cuts, we thought we'd done away with inflation for good. But then, like a hiccup, inflation came back to bite investors in the...

Inverted yield curve no longer reliable recession flag, strategists say

A key indicator of an oncoming recession implied by the U.S. bond market is no longer reliable, according to nearly two-thirds of strategists polled by Reuters....

Rates: Thanks Jerome!

Jerome Powell's speech to the U.S. Senate removed any doubt as to what to do next. The ECB followed suit, suggesting that inflation was on the right track. Markets applauded as bond yields eased.

Rates : One indicator chases another

Inflation is a bit like investment: it's not always easy to follow through. As proof of this, last Thursday's publication of the US Household Personal Spending Index did not confirm the information...

Rates: Japan still moribund

If, for you, Japan is synonymous with technology, Geishas and Toyota, you'll be disappointed by what follows. If, on the other hand, you're interested in the monetary mechanisms of one of the world's...

Interest rates: The first cracks start to appear

The stock market rally underway since October was fueled not only by the productivity gains generated by AI, but also by the return of inflation towards 2%. While the first pillar is still holding...

Rates: Waiting for the CPI

If you were away from markets last week, rest assured that you didn't miss much. In the absence of major events and after the central banks, investors have had little in the way of crisp statistics to...

Rates: The Fed turns a blind eye (and everyone laughs)

Unsurprisingly, the Fed kept its key rates unchanged at 5.50%. The real question, however, was whether investors were right to anticipate six rate cuts this year, with the first move in March. The...