Analysis: Interest Rates

Rate: Summer hot flashes

After an exhausting end of July/beginning of August in more ways than one, the past week has sounded like a call for calm. Admittedly, investors have not had many economic indicators to sink their...

But what's going on?

It had been a promising summer, with falling inflation and the prospect of the US Federal Reserve lowering the cost of borrowing for the first time. But then, lo and behold, recessionary fears reared...

US bond rally overdone but Fed should have cut rates in July, BlackRock manager says

NEW YORK, Aug 5 - A recent U.S. Treasuries rally, fueled by expectations of significantly lower interest rates, is overdone as the economy's resilience may make it unnecessary for the...

U.S. Treasury futures in unchartered waters as Fed cuts loom: McGeever

As the first U.S. interest rate cut in this cycle draws closer, long and short positions in the Treasury futures market, and overnight repo lending volumes, have never been higher. And...

Rate: Light the fire!

Sometimes all it takes is a small spark to light the fuse. Between a better-than-expected CPI, a rather dovish Jerome Powell and the anti-China rhetoric of the White House candidates, the financial...

US Treasury futures positions at extremes: McGeever

Investor positioning in U.S. Treasury futures is stretching to extreme - and in some cases, record - levels that are likely to revive concerns about potential liquidity and stability risks in...

Rates: Thank you Mr. CPI!

Investors of all stripes were eagerly awaiting this, and we can only conclude that they were not disappointed. Last Thursday's US consumer price data rekindled speculation of a first rate cut in...

Bond market re-focus on US elections throws wrench into 2024 rally hopes

A recalibration of how the U.S. presidential election plays out is causing bond investors to bet yields stay higher for longer as November approaches. Yields have risen sharply after...

MORNING BID ASIA-Market mood bright, liquidity light

A look at the day ahead in Asian markets. World and U.S. stocks at record highs, a UK general election and Japanese asset prices stretched to historical levels - there's a lot for...

Interest rates : Understanding the yield curve

A new feature is now available on Marketscreener.com, so today we take a closer look at the yield curve. Even if you're only invested in equities, it's always useful to look at the other side of the...

Rates: Big moves

The Fed isn't the only thing in the life of a stock market investor. From time to time, it's a good idea to look outside the box, to take the temperature of the world.

Interest rates: The double effect returns

Between the Fed meeting on the one hand and the French situation on the other, a lot is happening in the world of rates. These two events have a strong impact on the bond market, which is always on...

Rates: Christine draws faster than Jerome

Unsurprisingly, the European Central Bank cut its key rates by 25 basis points, joining the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of Canada. For its part, the Fed is likely to take its time, even if it is...

High bond yields should prompt reversal of 60/40 portfolio, says PIMCO

The prospect of bond yields remaining high for long should prompt a reversal of the typical 60/40 portfolio that holds 60% in stocks and 40% in bonds, U.S. bond giant asset manager PIMCO said on...

Rates: Which rate cut?

While the timing of the first rate cut is still a matter of debate within the financial community, rates traders have long since revised their plans in the light of macroeconomic data and the...

Interest rates: A goldilocks scenario that never lasts forever

Since October 2022, stock markets have embarked on a narrow path that leaves little room for doubt. Four pillars explain the current movement: inflation on a downward slope, a return to accommodative...

Interest rates: Has the risk of recession been definitively averted?

In 2022, all the media and the majority of economists were predicting the imminent onset of recession in the US, due to a particularly rapid cycle of monetary tightening. Nearly two years later, with...

Rates: To infinity and beyond

Thanks Buzz. The breach of the 4.60% mark on the US 10-year yield puts paid to our long-term scenario of an intermediate recovery before a new downward salvo. It's time to update all this and take...

In the Market: Economic surprises are messing with the market's favorite recession predictor

A bond market anomaly that has reliably predicted a U.S. recession in the past may normalize this year in a highly unusual manner. It's a worry for markets. The market signal, called a...