Projected Income Statement: Thai Oil

Forecast Balance Sheet: Thai Oil

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 168,451 132,155 149,832 134,617 65,092 90,475 98,668 89,073
Change - -21.55% 13.38% -10.15% -51.65% 39% 9.06% -9.72%
Announcement Date 2/15/22 2/10/23 2/14/24 2/14/25 2/12/26 - - -
1THB in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Thai Oil

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 35,146 31,929 14,504 8,955 10,429 35,249 24,167 11,673
Change - -9.15% -54.58% -38.25% 16.45% 238% -31.44% -51.7%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 -24,642 11,322 13,584 30,399 38,380 -21,953 -3,946 15,914
Change - 145.94% 19.99% 123.78% 26.25% -157.2% 82.03% 503.33%
Announcement Date 2/15/22 2/10/23 2/14/24 2/14/25 2/12/26 - - -
1THB in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Thai Oil

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 8.77% 9.82% 7.96% 4.5% 4.47% 6.95% 7.18% 7.35%
EBIT Margin (%) 6.62% 8.36% 6.3% 2.76% 2.43% 5.8% 4.88% 4.98%
EBT Margin (%) 4.37% 7.94% 5.17% 2.63% 4.24% 5.35% 4.24% 4.24%
Net margin (%) 3.64% 6.17% 4.14% 2.13% 3% 4.36% 3.34% 3.21%
FCF margin (%) -7.13% 2.14% 2.89% 6.51% 9.7% -5.02% -0.93% 3.22%
FCF / Net Income (%) -195.92% 34.66% 69.87% 305.26% 323.84% -115.11% -27.69% 100.31%

Profitability

        
ROA 3.76% 8.1% 4.5% 2.4% 3.49% 4.51% 3.09% 3.82%
ROE 10.61% 23.59% 11.89% 6.05% 8.7% 10.09% 6.87% 7.75%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 5.56x 2.54x 4.01x 6.41x 3.68x 2.97x 3.22x 2.45x
Debt / Free cash flow -6.84x 11.67x 11.03x 4.43x 1.7x -4.12x -25.01x 5.6x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 10.17% 6.03% 3.09% 1.92% 2.64% 8.05% 5.67% 2.36%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 115.96% 61.39% 38.82% 42.65% 58.97% 115.78% 78.94% 32.1%
CAPEX / FCF (%) -142.62% 282.02% 106.77% 29.46% 27.17% -160.56% -612.52% 73.35%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 5.152 20.69 12.57 17.62 21.85 8.672 9.442 12.31
Change - 301.61% -39.24% 40.11% 24.02% -60.31% 8.89% 30.36%
Dividend per Share 1 2.6 4 3.4 1.9 1.8 2.487 2.248 2.828
Change - 53.85% -15% -44.12% -5.26% 38.19% -9.64% 25.84%
Book Value Per Share 1 59.25 67.4 74.12 73.17 76.98 86.69 89.21 92.03
Change - 13.74% 9.97% -1.28% 5.2% 12.62% 2.91% 3.16%
EPS 1 6.17 15.63 8.7 4.46 6.53 8.504 6.069 7.093
Change - 153.32% -44.34% -48.74% 46.41% 30.23% -28.63% 16.87%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 2,040,028 2,233,836 2,233,836 2,233,836 2,233,836 2,233,836 2,233,836 2,233,836
Announcement Date 2/15/22 2/10/23 2/14/24 2/14/25 2/12/26 - - -
1THB
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E Ratio 5.17x 7.25x
PBR 0.51x 0.49x
EV / Sales 0.43x 0.46x
Yield 5.65% 5.11%

EPS & Dividend

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
-
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts
18
Last Close Price
44.00THB
Average target price
52.66THB
Spread / Average Target
+19.69%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise

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