Projected Income Statement: Thai Oil

Forecast Balance Sheet: Thai Oil

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 168,451 132,155 149,832 134,617 65,092 78,628 87,068 80,449
Change - -21.55% 13.38% -10.15% -51.65% 20.8% 10.73% -7.6%
Announcement Date 2/15/22 2/10/23 2/14/24 2/14/25 2/12/26 - - -
1THB in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Thai Oil

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 35,146 31,929 14,504 8,955 10,429 32,646 24,141 12,304
Change - -9.15% -54.58% -38.25% 16.45% 213.04% -26.05% -49.03%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 -24,642 11,322 13,584 30,399 38,380 6,509 3,888 22,070
Change - 145.94% 19.99% 123.78% 26.25% -83.04% -40.26% 467.6%
Announcement Date 2/15/22 2/10/23 2/14/24 2/14/25 2/12/26 - - -
1THB in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Thai Oil

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 8.77% 9.82% 7.96% 4.5% 4.47% 11.4% 7.97% 8.26%
EBIT Margin (%) 6.62% 8.36% 6.3% 2.76% 2.43% 10.07% 5.46% 5.65%
EBT Margin (%) 4.37% 7.94% 5.17% 2.63% 4.24% 9.01% 4.88% 4.98%
Net margin (%) 3.64% 6.17% 4.14% 2.13% 3% 7.35% 3.76% 3.83%
FCF margin (%) -7.13% 2.14% 2.89% 6.51% 9.7% 1.33% 0.91% 4.63%
FCF / Net Income (%) -195.92% 34.66% 69.87% 305.26% 323.84% 18.15% 24.27% 120.91%

Profitability

        
ROA 3.76% 8.1% 4.5% 2.4% 3.49% 8.21% 3.37% 3.68%
ROE 10.61% 23.59% 11.89% 6.05% 8.7% 19.54% 7.93% 8.48%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 5.56x 2.54x 4.01x 6.41x 3.68x 1.41x 2.56x 2.04x
Debt / Free cash flow -6.84x 11.67x 11.03x 4.43x 1.7x 12.08x 22.39x 3.65x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 10.17% 6.03% 3.09% 1.92% 2.64% 6.69% 5.67% 2.58%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 115.96% 61.39% 38.82% 42.65% 58.97% 58.66% 71.1% 31.21%
CAPEX / FCF (%) -142.62% 282.02% 106.77% 29.46% 27.17% 501.56% 620.85% 55.75%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 5.152 20.69 12.57 17.62 21.85 19.47 11.06 16.7
Change - 301.61% -39.24% 40.11% 24.02% -10.9% -43.2% 51.06%
Dividend per Share 1 2.6 4 3.4 1.9 1.8 4.76 2.824 3.779
Change - 53.85% -15% -44.12% -5.26% 164.43% -40.68% 33.85%
Book Value Per Share 1 59.25 67.4 74.12 73.17 76.98 93.65 97.76 105.1
Change - 13.74% 9.97% -1.28% 5.2% 21.66% 4.39% 7.56%
EPS 1 6.17 15.63 8.7 4.46 6.53 16.35 6.941 7.909
Change - 153.32% -44.34% -48.74% 46.41% 150.43% -57.55% 13.94%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 2,040,028 2,233,836 2,233,836 2,233,836 2,233,836 2,233,836 2,233,836 2,233,836
Announcement Date 2/15/22 2/10/23 2/14/24 2/14/25 2/12/26 - - -
1THB
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E 3.91x 9.22x
PBR 0.68x 0.65x
EV / Sales 0.45x 0.54x
Yield 7.44% 4.41%

EPS & Dividend



Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

 

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
-
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts
19
Last Close Price
64.00THB
Average target price
67.20THB
Spread / Average Target
+5.00%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise