Projected Income Statement: Santos Limited

Forecast Balance Sheet: Santos Limited

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 5,073 3,450 4,264 4,891 5,764 4,550 4,003 3,401
Change - -31.99% 23.59% 14.7% 17.85% -21.06% -12.02% -15.04%
Announcement Date 2/15/22 2/21/23 2/20/24 2/18/25 1/21/26 - - -
1USD in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Santos Limited

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 1,103 1,707 2,625 2,401 2,403 1,798 1,939 1,741
Change - 54.76% 53.78% -8.53% 0.08% -25.17% 7.84% -10.24%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 1,169 2,851 2,128 449 757 1,581 2,384 2,463
Change - 143.88% -25.36% -78.9% 68.6% 108.9% 50.75% 3.33%
Announcement Date 2/15/22 2/21/23 2/20/24 2/18/25 1/21/26 - - -
1USD in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Santos Limited

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 56.84% 70.58% 67.87% 67.59% 67.67% 68.27% 71.75% 70.13%
EBIT Margin (%) 30.47% 48.15% 35.24% 37.41% 31.87% 36.17% 39.52% 37.68%
EBT Margin (%) 25.57% 37.84% 30.89% 32.5% 24.09% 30.37% 35.81% 34.8%
Net margin (%) 13.96% 27.11% 24.04% 22.75% 16.56% 21.25% 24.58% 23.25%
FCF margin (%) 24.8% 36.6% 36.14% 8.34% 15.33% 23.45% 33.43% 35.3%
FCF / Net Income (%) 177.66% 134.99% 150.28% 36.68% 92.54% 110.37% 135.98% 151.82%

Profitability

        
ROA 3.97% 8.36% 4.86% 4.04% 2.99% 5.76% 6.68% 6.5%
ROE 9.08% 17.3% 9.45% 7.8% 5.76% 9.28% 9.86% 9.08%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 1.89x 0.63x 1.07x 1.34x 1.72x 0.99x 0.78x 0.7x
Debt / Free cash flow 4.34x 1.21x 2x 10.89x 7.61x 2.88x 1.68x 1.38x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 23.4% 21.91% 44.57% 44.62% 48.65% 26.66% 27.19% 24.94%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 41.17% 31.05% 65.67% 66.02% 71.9% 39.06% 37.89% 35.57%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 94.35% 59.87% 123.36% 534.74% 317.44% 113.7% 81.34% 70.66%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 1.056 1.355 0.9945 0.876 0.8646 1.026 1.329 1.334
Change - 28.24% -26.6% -11.92% -1.3% 18.63% 29.61% 0.33%
Dividend per Share 1 0.14 0.151 0.262 0.233 0.237 0.3237 0.4031 0.3863
Change - 7.86% 73.51% -11.07% 1.72% 36.57% 24.53% -4.15%
Book Value Per Share 1 4.03 4.48 4.703 4.776 4.834 5.066 5.116 5.174
Change - 11.17% 4.99% 1.54% 1.23% 4.79% 0.98% 1.15%
EPS 1 0.306 0.628 0.432 0.376 0.251 0.4683 0.5175 0.5167
Change - 105.23% -31.21% -12.96% -33.24% 86.59% 10.5% -0.15%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 3,379,649 3,303,215 3,238,575 3,239,501 3,239,897 3,239,476 3,239,476 3,239,476
Announcement Date 2/15/22 2/21/23 2/20/24 2/18/25 1/21/26 - - -
1USD
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E 13.2x 11.9x
PBR 1.22x 1.2x
EV / Sales 3.63x 3.36x
Yield 5.25% 6.54%

EPS & Dividend



Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

 

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
A
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
BUY
Number of Analysts
13
Last Close Price
6.161USD
Average target price
6.519USD
Spread / Average Target
+5.80%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise

-40%: Exceptional extension
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