Company Valuation: Greggs plc

Data adjusted to current consolidation scope
Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Market Cap 1 3,342 2,387 2,673 2,801 1,708 2,068 - -
Change - -28.59% 12% 4.77% -39.02% 21.06% - -
Enterprise Value (EV) 1 3,427 2,497 2,798 3,091 2,112 2,479 2,469 2,450
Change - -27.15% 12.06% 10.48% -31.67% 17.36% -0.39% -0.77%
P/E 28.8x 20.1x 18.9x 18.4x 14.1x 16x 15.5x 14.6x
PBR 7.9x 5.41x 5.08x 4.96x - 3x 2.76x 2.56x
PEG - 7.18x 1x 2.46x -0.7x 2.62x 5x 2.2x
Capitalization / Revenue 2.72x 1.58x 1.48x 1.39x 0.79x 0.9x 0.85x 0.8x
EV / Revenue 2.79x 1.65x 1.55x 1.53x 0.98x 1.08x 1.01x 0.94x
EV / EBITDA 13.2x 9.25x 9.43x 9.22x 6.07x 6.6x 6.2x 5.76x
EV / EBIT 22.4x 16.2x 16.3x 15.8x 11.3x 12.7x 12.2x 11.4x
EV / FCF 14.8x 16.8x 24.8x 44.2x 40.9x 24.3x 18x 16.4x
FCF Yield 6.75% 5.94% 4.03% 2.26% 2.44% 4.12% 5.55% 6.1%
Dividend per Share 2 0.57 0.59 0.62 0.69 0.69 0.6953 0.7081 0.7302
Rate of return 1.73% 2.5% 2.35% 2.5% 4.1% 3.43% 3.49% 3.6%
EPS 2 1.143 1.175 1.392 1.496 1.193 1.266 1.305 1.392
Distribution rate 49.9% 50.2% 44.5% 46.1% 57.8% 54.9% 54.3% 52.5%
Net sales 1 1,230 1,513 1,810 2,014 2,151 2,301 2,446 2,599
EBITDA 1 260.6 269.9 296.7 335.3 348.1 375.7 398.2 425.5
EBIT 1 153.2 154.4 171.7 195.3 187.5 195.6 201.7 215.6
Net income 1 117.5 120.3 142.5 153.4 122.2 129.8 133.8 141.7
Net Debt 1 84.6 109.7 124.3 289.8 404 411 401.3 382.3
Reference price 2 32.94 23.58 26.36 27.60 16.83 20.28 20.28 20.28
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 101,470 101,224 101,415 101,480 101,480 101,955 - -
Announcement Date 3/8/22 3/7/23 3/5/24 3/4/25 3/3/26 - - -
1GBP in Million2GBP
Estimates

P/E, Detailed evolution



P/E (N) EV / Sales (N) EV / EBITDA (N) Dividend Yield (N) Capi.($)
18.29x7.28x13.16x3.2% 166B
41.74x3.4x22.15x2.64% 109B
22.28x1.14x11.17x2.5% 50.07B
28.29x3.5x19.81x-.--% 40.34B
15.7x5.44x16.26x2.19% 37.59B
15.96x3.76x11.7x3.61% 24.93B
17.37x1.79x10.8x3.32% 22.15B
30.13x0.94x12.23x0.87% 14.35B
13.81x0.99x6.46x2.91% 13.89B
Average 22.62x 3.14x 13.75x 2.36% 53.07B
Weighted average by Cap. 24.75x 4.48x 15.40x 2.6%

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Historical PBR trend

Evolution Enterprise Value / Sales

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA



Year-on-year evolution of the Yield