Projected Income Statement: Diageo plc

Forecast Balance Sheet: Diageo plc

Fiscal Period: June 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Net Debt 1 16,657 19,195 20,371 21,548 19,991 17,480 15,701 14,633
Change - 15.24% 6.13% 5.78% -7.23% -12.56% -10.18% -6.8%
Announcement Date 7/28/22 8/1/23 7/30/24 8/5/25 8/6/26 - - -
1USD in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Diageo plc

Fiscal Period: June 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
CAPEX 1 1,330 1,504 1,510 1,549 1,181 1,223 1,185 1,250
Change - 13.02% 0.42% 2.58% -23.76% 3.55% -3.08% 5.43%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 3,442 3,511 2,595 2,748 3,211 2,749 3,518 3,755
Change - 2% -26.08% 5.9% 16.85% -14.38% 27.98% 6.72%
Announcement Date 7/28/22 8/1/23 7/30/24 8/5/25 8/6/26 - - -
1USD in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Diageo plc

Fiscal Period: June 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 36.4% 35.76% 34.72% 32.82% 33.85% 33.73% 34.17% 35.46%
EBIT Margin (%) 31.04% 30.7% 29.33% 28.17% 28.93% 29.36% 30.05% 31.23%
EBT Margin (%) 28.39% 27.67% 26.94% 17.47% 13.05% 25.84% 28.24% 29.33%
Net margin (%) 21.03% 21.82% 19.09% 11.63% 8.84% 18.13% 20.26% 21.12%
FCF margin (%) 18.37% 16.1% 12.8% 13.57% 16.35% 14.36% 18.11% 18.79%
FCF / Net Income (%) 87.35% 73.78% 67.05% 116.74% 184.86% 79.19% 89.38% 88.98%

Profitability

        
ROA 10.28% 10.26% 8.88% 7.7% 7.65% 7.88% 7.89% 8.24%
ROE 47.91% 47.39% 40.35% 34.54% 33.49% 29.99% 26.3% 25.39%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 2.44x 2.46x 2.89x 3.24x 3.01x 2.71x 2.36x 2.07x
Debt / Free cash flow 4.84x 5.47x 7.85x 7.84x 6.23x 6.36x 4.46x 3.9x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 7.1% 6.9% 7.45% 7.65% 6.01% 6.39% 6.1% 6.25%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 19.5% 19.28% 21.46% 23.31% 17.76% 18.93% 17.85% 17.64%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 38.65% 42.83% 58.19% 56.37% 36.78% 44.48% 33.69% 33.28%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 2.053 1.697 1.833 1.929 1.969 1.798 2.052 2.173
Change - -17.33% 8.05% 5.19% 2.07% -8.66% 14.12% 5.9%
Dividend per Share 1 0.9239 1.019 1.035 1.035 - 0.5524 0.5866 0.631
Change - 10.34% 1.51% 0% - - 6.2% 7.56%
Book Value Per Share 1 4.151 4.394 4.491 4.991 4.888 5.718 7.093 7.98
Change - 5.84% 2.21% 11.14% -2.06% 16.98% 24.04% 12.51%
EPS 1 1.694 2.095 1.728 1.057 0.779 1.609 1.786 1.936
Change - 23.65% -17.52% -38.83% -26.3% 106.5% 11.03% 8.37%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 2,278,906 2,245,879 2,219,979 2,222,295 2,223,723 2,224,397 2,224,397 2,224,397
Announcement Date 7/28/22 8/1/23 7/30/24 8/5/25 8/6/26 - - -
1USD
Estimates
2027 *2028 *
P/E 14.7x 13.2x
PBR 4.14x 3.34x
EV / Sales 3.66x 3.52x
Yield 2.33% 2.48%

EPS & Dividend

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
-
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts
23
Last Close Price
23.66USD
Average target price
26.78USD
Spread / Average Target
+13.18%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise