Yves Sanquer

Rates: equity markets shrug off high yields

The current tension in bond yields reflects the return of growth prospects combined with inflation that appears to be under control. However, this situation should not be allowed to worsen, as it will weigh on equity market performance at some point.

May 19, 2025 at 09:14 am

Currencies: Moody's not helping the dollar's cause

The surprise downgrade of the US debt rating by Moody's at the end of last week took the financial markets by surprise and is weighing on the greenback, which is struggling against almost all G10 currencies.

May 19, 2025 at 09:08 am

Rates: what are swap spreads?

Despite attempts to defuse the various current crises over reciprocal tariffs on the one hand and the potential dismissal of the Fed chairman on the other, the bond markets are not so easily appeased. Like Saint Thomas, they only believe what they see.

April 28, 2025 at 09:00 am

Rates: The ECB stays the course

Unsurprisingly, the European Central Bank has lowered its key interest rates amid weak growth and a tariff policy whose impact is still unclear.

April 23, 2025 at 09:09 am

Currencies: Major maneuvers

The sometimes contradictory statements coming from the Trump administration are fueling the current uncertainty and continuing to weigh on the dollar while keeping rates high.

April 23, 2025 at 08:50 am

Currencies: A turnaround

A few weeks ago, we invited you to take a look at the US 10-year curve to anticipate changes in the dollar. But there you have it! That was before Liberation Day and the subsequent reversals that pushed the dollar out the door.

April 14, 2025 at 10:01 am

Rates: Is anyone in charge?

The suspense lasted most of last week before Donald Trump granted a 90-day grace period to all his trading partners - except China - which dared to retaliate. "Shocking", as their English cousins would say.

April 14, 2025 at 09:03 am

Currencies: Follow the rates

To fully understand currency movements, it is sometimes useful to refer to the evolution of bond yields, as part of the carry trade. The correlation between the dollar and the U.S. 10-year bond is a case in point.

March 31, 2025 at 09:50 am

Rates: it's getting tiresome

Fluctuations in bond yields illustrate the difficulties facing investors. On the one hand, fears about growth argue in favor of easing rates. On the other, the risk of a new wave of inflation against the backdrop of the trade war would push the Fed to keep its key rates high for a long time to come.

March 31, 2025 at 09:02 am

Rates: Powell adopts the dovish attitude

Sometimes it doesn't take much to be happy. Not because the Fed has a clear vision to share, but rather because it has avoided the words that traditionally anger investors: out-of-control inflation, risk of recession or worse - rate hikes.

March 24, 2025 at 06:58 am

Currencies: Waiting for the Fed

This week, all eyes will be on the next meeting of the US Federal Reserve, scheduled for Wednesday. In the meantime, forex traders are loading their guns, and are ready to fire with all barrels.

March 17, 2025 at 10:29 am

Rates: Inflation eases but uncertainties remain

The publication of encouraging statistics on US inflation is not expected to alter the current policy of the Federal Reserve, which is due to meet on Wednesday. Investors are still betting on a status quo, with rates holding steady at 4.50%.

March 17, 2025 at 06:45 am

Rates: High tensions in Europe as defense budgets increase

Every cloud has a silver lining. After deluding themselves for over 50 years, Europeans seem to be discovering, to their horror, that they will have to provide for their own defense rather than rely on American aid via NATO. Interest-rate markets are tightening in the face of financing needs.

March 11, 2025 at 07:00 am

Currencies: The euro withstands Trump's attacks well

The trade war with Europe has been declared. Until now, the old continent had escaped the wrath of the American president, but now he has set the record straight, announcing his intention to tax European products by up to 25%.

March 03, 2025 at 05:51 am

Rates: Fears of an economic slowdown

For several months, bond yields have been rising on fears of a rapid return to inflation in the United States. In fact, Scott Bessent of the Treasury has declared that lowering the US 10-year is a priority, reassuring investors about the government's ability to cut public spending.

March 03, 2025 at 05:47 am

Rates: Financials benefit from steepening

As an investor in US individual stocks, you'll no doubt have noticed that since the start of the year, the 7 magnificence has lost some of its lustre, as has the technology sector as a whole. On the other hand, financials have set a string of records. What's that got to do with rates? Answer below.

February 24, 2025 at 05:41 am

Currencies: Fears of stagflation

The narrative surrounding the US economy is slowly shifting from a soft landing to possible stagflation. While the Trump trade was supposed to make room for small caps and the dollar, we have to admit that this scenario is struggling to materialize.

February 24, 2025 at 05:34 am

Rates: No further cuts in sight

The release of a rising consumer price index provided further evidence that the Fed intends to pause its rate-cutting cycle. Moreover, Jerome Powell took advantage of his Senate hearing to hammer home the point.

February 17, 2025 at 05:30 am

Currencies: A little more effort

The recent actions of the White House now seem to have only a limited effect on the dollar's trend. While the dollar is still benefiting from a favorable environment (high interest rates, tariffs), its upward momentum has waned considerably. The tipping point is near.

February 17, 2025 at 05:24 am

Currencies: Tariffs, again

The dollar continues to move in step with President Trump's tweets on the introduction - and scale - of tariffs with his main trading partners. At the moment, this massive negotiating weapon has not yet done too much damage. But for how long?

February 10, 2025 at 05:30 am

Interest rates: A wind of optimism

Two weeks ago, Deepseek threw a spanner in the works by proposing an open-source generative AI. But has the Chinese application really reshuffled the deck? The game is far from over.

February 10, 2025 at 04:17 am