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Projected Income Statement: Tesco
| Fiscal Period: February | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales 1 | 61,344 | 65,762 | 68,187 | 69,916 | 73,712 | 74,834 | 76,839 | 78,710 |
| Change | - | 7.2% | 3.69% | 2.54% | 5.43% | 1.52% | 2.68% | 2.43% |
| EBITDA 1 | 4,543 | 4,330 | 4,544 | 4,825 | 5,007 | 5,101 | 5,305 | 5,485 |
| Change | - | -4.69% | 4.94% | 6.18% | 3.77% | 1.87% | 4% | 3.4% |
| EBIT 1 | 2,825 | 2,630 | 2,821 | 3,128 | 3,194 | 3,252 | 3,403 | 3,547 |
| Change | - | -6.9% | 7.26% | 10.88% | 2.11% | 1.81% | 4.67% | 4.22% |
| Interest Paid 1 | -542 | -533 | -538 | -492 | -581 | -549.2 | -534 | -527 |
| Earnings before Tax (EBT) 1 | 2,033 | 1,000 | 2,277 | 2,215 | 2,403 | 2,645 | 2,810 | 2,948 |
| Change | - | -50.81% | 127.7% | -2.72% | 8.49% | 10.08% | 6.23% | 4.91% |
| Net income 1 | 1,481 | 745 | 1,736 | 1,626 | 1,787 | 1,951 | 2,103 | 2,259 |
| Change | - | -49.7% | 133.02% | -6.34% | 9.9% | 9.16% | 7.81% | 7.41% |
| Announcement Date | 4/13/22 | 4/13/23 | 4/10/24 | 4/10/25 | 4/16/26 | - | - | - |
Forecast Balance Sheet: Tesco
| Fiscal Period: February | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Debt 1 | 10,516 | 10,493 | 9,764 | 9,454 | 10,563 | 10,541 | 10,351 | 10,286 |
| Change | - | -0.22% | -6.95% | -3.17% | 11.73% | -0.21% | -1.8% | -0.63% |
| Announcement Date | 4/13/22 | 4/13/23 | 4/10/24 | 4/10/25 | 4/16/26 | - | - | - |
Cash Flow Forecast: Tesco
| Fiscal Period: February | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAPEX 1 | 949 | 971 | 1,386 | 1,539 | 1,666 | 1,597 | 1,614 | 1,635 |
| Change | - | 2.32% | 42.74% | 11.04% | 8.25% | -4.14% | 1.04% | 1.35% |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 | 2,808 | 2,751 | 2,453 | 1,383 | 2,240 | 1,874 | 1,995 | 2,131 |
| Change | - | -2.03% | -10.83% | -43.62% | 61.97% | -16.36% | 6.47% | 6.84% |
| Announcement Date | 4/13/22 | 4/13/23 | 4/10/24 | 4/10/25 | 4/16/26 | - | - | - |
Forecast Financial Ratios: Tesco
| Fiscal Period: February | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Profitability | ||||||||
| EBITDA Margin (%) | 7.41% | 6.58% | 6.66% | 6.9% | 6.79% | 6.82% | 6.9% | 6.97% |
| EBIT Margin (%) | 4.61% | 4% | 4.14% | 4.47% | 4.33% | 4.35% | 4.43% | 4.51% |
| EBT Margin (%) | 3.31% | 1.52% | 3.34% | 3.17% | 3.26% | 3.53% | 3.66% | 3.75% |
| Net margin (%) | 2.41% | 1.13% | 2.55% | 2.33% | 2.42% | 2.61% | 2.74% | 2.87% |
| FCF margin (%) | 4.58% | 4.18% | 3.6% | 1.98% | 3.04% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.71% |
| FCF / Net Income (%) | 189.6% | 369.26% | 141.3% | 85.06% | 125.35% | 96.05% | 94.85% | 94.34% |
Profitability | ||||||||
| ROA | 4.5% | 3.54% | 3.79% | 4.41% | 4.95% | 5.04% | 5.31% | 5.59% |
| ROE | 10.68% | 12.12% | 14.72% | 16.23% | 16.78% | 17.1% | 17.8% | 18.32% |
Financial Health | ||||||||
| Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) | 2.31x | 2.42x | 2.15x | 1.96x | 2.11x | 2.07x | 1.95x | 1.88x |
| Debt / Free cash flow | 3.75x | 3.81x | 3.98x | 6.84x | 4.72x | 5.63x | 5.19x | 4.83x |
Capital Intensity | ||||||||
| CAPEX / Current Assets (%) | 1.55% | 1.48% | 2.03% | 2.2% | 2.26% | 2.13% | 2.1% | 2.08% |
| CAPEX / EBITDA (%) | 20.89% | 22.42% | 30.5% | 31.9% | 33.27% | 31.31% | 30.42% | 29.82% |
| CAPEX / FCF (%) | 33.8% | 35.3% | 56.5% | 111.28% | 74.38% | 85.24% | 80.89% | 76.74% |
Items per share | ||||||||
| Cash flow per share 1 | 0.485 | 0.4975 | 0.535 | 0.4224 | 0.5913 | 0.5556 | 0.5713 | 0.6028 |
| Change | - | 2.58% | 7.54% | -21.05% | 39.99% | -6.04% | 2.84% | 5.52% |
| Dividend per Share 1 | 0.109 | 0.109 | 0.121 | 0.137 | 0.145 | 0.1569 | 0.1712 | 0.1857 |
| Change | - | 0% | 11.01% | 13.22% | 5.84% | 8.21% | 9.09% | 8.46% |
| Book Value Per Share 1 | 2.045 | 1.673 | 1.626 | 1.707 | 1.762 | 1.826 | 1.903 | 1.984 |
| Change | - | -18.21% | -2.76% | 4.94% | 3.21% | 3.66% | 4.21% | 4.25% |
| EPS 1 | 0.1964 | 0.1008 | 0.2453 | 0.2351 | 0.271 | 0.3048 | 0.3347 | 0.3652 |
| Change | - | -48.68% | 143.35% | -4.16% | 15.27% | 12.47% | 9.8% | 9.12% |
| Nbr of stocks (in thousands) | 7,574,218 | 7,268,607 | 6,968,930 | 6,696,942 | 6,355,483 | 6,231,580 | 6,231,580 | 6,231,580 |
| Announcement Date | 4/13/22 | 4/13/23 | 4/10/24 | 4/10/25 | 4/16/26 | - | - | - |
| 2027 * | 2028 * | |
|---|---|---|
| P/E | 15.8x | 14.4x |
| PBR | 2.64x | 2.53x |
| EV / Sales | 0.54x | 0.53x |
| Yield | 3.26% | 3.56% |
EPS & Dividend
Y-o-Y evolution of P/E
Year-on-year evolution of the Yield
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Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise
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