Capital Markets Update
- Federal Elections Outlook
- Rights Issue Considerations
- Illustrative NTA & FFO Accretion Scenarios
September 20, 2021
German Federal Election: Polls Suggest A Tight Race
Based on most recent polls several combinations are possible and a clear winner combination with an obvious mandate to form the new government looks unlikely.
Current min/max polling results (based on eight leading pollsters (%))
30 | 27 | ||||||||||||||||
25 | 25 | ||||||||||||||||
25 | Not | ||||||||||||||||
20 | considered/ | ||||||||||||||||
not eligible for | |||||||||||||||||
20 | |||||||||||||||||
17 | a coalition | ||||||||||||||||
15 | 13 | ||||||||||||||||
15 | 12 | ||||||||||||||||
10 | 9 | ||||||||||||||||
11 | |||||||||||||||||
10 | |||||||||||||||||
7 | |||||||||||||||||
5 | |||||||||||||||||
6 | 6 | ||||||||||||||||
0 | |||||||||||||||||
CDU/CSU SPD Greens | FDP The Left AfD | Other | |||||||||||||||
(Liberals) |
Source:https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/as of Sep. 17, 2021
Possible coalitions (based on simple averages across eight leading pollsters (%))
"Germany" | 22 | 26 | 11 |
"Traffic Light" | 26 | 16 | 11 |
"Jamaica" | 22 | 16 | 11 |
"R2G" | 26 | 16 | 6 |
ca. 46% votes
needed for a
majority (est.)
Page 2
What to Expect After the Election
- As polls indicate a tight race it seems likely that the election results will not deliver a clear outcome and different coalitions will be possible.
- Any coalition will require substantial consensus, and it is impossible to predict what concessions will be made by which party and on which issue.
- The very strict hardline positions laid out in the various manifestos will most likely be diluted in coalition negotiations as parties are forced to find consensus and common ground.
-
In light of (i) the consensual view across party lines to combat climate change and reduce CO2 and (ii) the high ratio of retail landlords (65%) there seems to be a factual need for housing policy to remain sufficiently balanced in order to increase much needed CO2 reduction efforts and also to leave enough
"breathing room" for private owners.
Page 3
Investments, Modernization, and Climate Protection
Consensus on Need to Reduce CO2 but Different Ways to Get There
CDU/CSU | SPD | The Greens | FDP (Liberals) | The Left |
• Climate neutrality | • Climate neutrality no | • 100% renewable | • Deregulation to | • Climate neutrality |
until 2045 | later than 2045 | energy by 2035 | accelerate energy | until 2035 |
• Tax incentives for | • Subsidies for | • Increase | turnaround | • Introduce climate |
modernization | modernization | modernization rate | • Implement | protection as a |
investments | investments and | • Reduce | environmental | government target in |
• Strengthen landlord- | urban quarter | modernization | policies free from | Germany's Basic Law |
to-tenant electricity | developments | allowance | ideology | • Increase energy |
models | • Achieve CO2 | (€1.50/sqm) | • Support a lively and | efficient |
• Support innovative | neutrality in the real | • Refurbishments to be | innovative start-up | modernization rate |
research including | estate sector | neutral to warm | culture | by a factor of 3x |
electrolyzers, fuel | • Use CO2 tax to | rents via "1/3 model" | • Comprehensive | • Refurbishments to be |
cells, hydrogen | incentivize energy- | with equal burden | reform of energy- | neutral to warm |
technology, | efficient | sharing between | related taxes and | rents |
photovoltaics, and | modernizations | tenant, landlord and | fees | • Support landlord-to- |
innovation centers | among home owners | tax payer | tenant electricity | |
• Support landlord-to- | • Subsidy programs | models | ||
tenant electricity | and tax incentives | |||
models | for owners | |||
• Expand renewable | • Distribution along | |||
energy and increase | energy efficiency | |||
energy efficiency | classes | |||
• Make Germany the | • Increase CO2 tax to | |||
leader in hydrogen | €60 by 2023 (instead | |||
technology | of 2025) | |||
• Support innovative | • Simplify and support | |||
forms of renewable | landlord-to-tenant | |||
energy generation | electricity models | |||
• Include Paris Climate | ||||
Agreement Targets | ||||
in Germany's Basic | ||||
law | ||||
Sources: Parties' manifestos and "First 100 Days Action Plans"
Page 4
Rental Regulation
Differences Even Within Individual Parties
CDU/CSU | SPD | The Greens | FDP (Liberals) | The Left |
• Measures to increase | • Round table for | • Limit regular rent | • Abolish the 10% rent | • Enable rent freeze |
supply instead of | affordable housing | increases to 2% p.a. | cap on relettings | legislation anywhere |
additional regulation | with all relevant | • Ensure wide use of | (Mietpreisbremse) | in Germany |
(sufficient new | stakeholders | qualified Mietspiegel | • Expropriation and | • Rent increase |
supply considered to | • Rent increase in line | as firm legal basis for | regulation lead to | moratorium in tight |
be the best form of | with inflation | rent increases | less supply and are | housing markets |
tenant protection) | • Temporary | • Continue and | not a solution | • End "share deal |
moratorium on rent | enforce 10% rent | • Increase supply | abuse" | |
increases in tight | cap on relettings | through deregulation | ||
housing markets | (Mietpreisbremse) | |||
• Continue 10% rent | • Allow for federal | |||
cap on relettings | legislation to | |||
(Mietpreisbremse) | implement rent | |||
• Increase look-back | ceilings | |||
period for Mietspiegel | • Increase look-back | |||
to 8 yeas | period for Mietspiegel | |||
to 20 years | ||||
• End "share deal | ||||
abuse" | ||||
Sources: Parties' manifestos and "First 100 Days Action Plans"
Page 5
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Vonovia SE published this content on 20 September 2021 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 20 September 2021 07:11:07 UTC.