ECOPETROL S.A. |
End-of-day quote
Other stock markets
|
5-day change | 1st Jan Change | ||
| 2,260 COP | +0.22% |
|
-1.74% | -3.42% |
| 04-29 | Ecopetrol S.A. Announces Management Changes | CI |
| 04-23 | Colombia predicts $10 billion in foreign investment from Europe this year-minister | RE |
Valuation
| Fiscal Period: December | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capitalization 1 | 136,301,843 | 92,306,980 | 110,603,909 | 99,502,401 | 96,213,066 | 92,923,730 | - | - |
| Enterprise Value (EV) 1 | 165,841,206 | 131,760,980 | 189,487,781 | 198,074,055 | 96,213,066 | 177,353,351 | 174,708,378 | 167,211,572 |
| P/E ratio | 10.3 x | 58.2 x | 6.63 x | 3.15 x | - | 4.45 x | 4.01 x | 3.98 x |
| Yield | 5.43% | 0.76% | 9.03% | 20.1% | - | 14.2% | 14.3% | 16.8% |
| Capitalization / Revenue | 1.92 x | 1.85 x | 1.21 x | 0.62 x | 0.67 x | 0.68 x | 0.69 x | 0.71 x |
| EV / Revenue | 2.34 x | 2.63 x | 2.07 x | 1.24 x | 0.67 x | 1.3 x | 1.31 x | 1.28 x |
| EV / EBITDA | 5.33 x | 7.82 x | 4.52 x | 2.63 x | 1.58 x | 3.06 x | 3.1 x | 3.11 x |
| EV / FCF | 11.9 x | -71.6 x | 19.6 x | 12.8 x | - | 8.1 x | 6.85 x | 7.21 x |
| FCF Yield | 8.38% | -1.4% | 5.11% | 7.83% | - | 12.3% | 14.6% | 13.9% |
| Price to Book | - | - | 1.54 x | 1.15 x | - | 0.99 x | - | - |
| Nbr of stocks (in thousands) | 41,116,695 | 41,116,695 | 41,116,695 | 41,116,695 | 41,116,695 | 41,116,695 | - | - |
| Reference price 2 | 3,315 | 2,245 | 2,690 | 2,420 | 2,340 | 2,260 | 2,260 | 2,260 |
| Announcement Date | 20-02-26 | 21-02-23 | 22-03-01 | 23-02-28 | 24-02-29 | - | - | - |
1COP in Million2COP
Estimates
Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)
| Fiscal Period: December | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales 1 | 70,846,769 | 50,027,000 | 91,744,000 | 159,474,000 | 143,079,000 | 135,970,805 | 133,764,182 | 130,875,624 |
| EBITDA 1 | 31,108,000 | 16,840,000 | 41,967,000 | 75,244,000 | 60,718,000 | 57,952,635 | 56,293,361 | 53,768,977 |
| EBIT 1 | 22,163,000 | 7,633,000 | 29,594,000 | 60,381,000 | 43,746,000 | 44,657,520 | 42,077,244 | 38,944,841 |
| Operating Margin | 31.28% | 15.26% | 32.26% | 37.86% | 30.57% | 32.84% | 31.46% | 29.76% |
| Earnings before Tax (EBT) 1 | 19,099,000 | 4,710,000 | 26,322,000 | 54,026,000 | 36,788,000 | 35,530,427 | 38,413,441 | 41,467,508 |
| Net income 1 | 13,251,000 | 1,688,000 | 16,695,000 | 33,406,000 | 19,062,000 | 16,003,436 | 15,985,374 | 14,463,161 |
| Net margin | 18.7% | 3.37% | 18.2% | 20.95% | 13.32% | 11.77% | 11.95% | 11.05% |
| EPS 2 | 322.3 | 38.60 | 406.0 | 768.7 | - | 507.5 | 564.0 | 567.4 |
| Free Cash Flow 1 | 13,900,915 | -1,839,000 | 9,685,405 | 15,504,000 | - | 21,889,759 | 25,507,448 | 23,191,061 |
| FCF margin | 19.62% | -3.68% | 10.56% | 9.72% | - | 16.1% | 19.07% | 17.72% |
| FCF Conversion (EBITDA) | 44.69% | - | 23.08% | 20.6% | - | 37.77% | 45.31% | 43.13% |
| FCF Conversion (Net income) | 104.9% | - | 58.01% | 46.41% | - | 136.78% | 159.57% | 160.35% |
| Dividend per Share 2 | 180.0 | 17.00 | 243.0 | 487.0 | - | 321.3 | 322.4 | 379.5 |
| Announcement Date | 20-02-26 | 21-02-23 | 22-03-01 | 23-02-28 | 24-02-29 | - | - | - |
1COP in Million2COP
Estimates
Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)
| Fiscal Period: December | 2021 Q3 | 2021 Q4 | 2022 Q1 | 2022 Q2 | 2022 Q3 | 2022 Q4 | 2023 Q1 | 2023 Q2 | 2023 Q3 | 2023 Q4 | 2024 Q1 | 2024 Q2 | 2024 Q3 | 2024 Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales 1 | 23,333,000 | 31,761,000 | 32,473,000 | 43,885,000 | 43,438,336 | 39,678,000 | 38,853,579 | 34,300,183 | 35,130,000 | 34,794,000 | 32,998,712 | 34,550,055 | 34,817,033 | 34,260,872 |
| EBITDA 1 | 10,371,000 | 13,981,000 | 15,896,000 | 22,211,000 | 21,142,000 | 15,996,000 | 17,842,000 | 14,585,000 | 16,038,000 | 12,251,000 | 13,517,357 | 14,052,000 | 14,909,000 | 14,014,000 |
| EBIT 1 | 7,104,000 | 10,423,000 | 12,530,000 | 18,608,000 | 17,222,000 | 12,016,000 | 13,721,000 | 10,499,000 | 11,816,000 | 7,700,000 | 10,672,248 | 11,333,016 | 11,459,990 | 10,318,615 |
| Operating Margin | 30.45% | 32.82% | 38.59% | 42.4% | 39.65% | 30.28% | 35.31% | 30.61% | 33.64% | 22.13% | 32.34% | 32.8% | 32.91% | 30.12% |
| Earnings before Tax (EBT) 1 | 6,518,000 | 9,106,000 | - | - | 15,587,000 | 10,377,000 | 12,557,000 | - | - | 4,326,000 | 9,042,000 | 9,363,000 | 10,602,000 | 9,421,000 |
| Net income 1 | 3,807,000 | 6,077,000 | 6,573,000 | 10,470,000 | 9,513,000 | 6,851,000 | 5,660,000 | 4,087,000 | 5,086,000 | 4,228,000 | 4,897,255 | 5,011,485 | 5,416,156 | 4,972,243 |
| Net margin | 16.32% | 19.13% | 20.24% | 23.86% | 21.9% | 17.27% | 14.57% | 11.92% | 14.48% | 12.15% | 14.84% | 14.5% | 15.56% | 14.51% |
| EPS 2 | 92.60 | 147.8 | - | 254.6 | 231.4 | 122.8 | 137.7 | 99.40 | 123.7 | - | 119.7 | 127.4 | 133.7 | 120.3 |
| Dividend per Share | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Announcement Date | 21-11-09 | 22-03-01 | 22-05-11 | 22-08-03 | 22-11-08 | 23-02-28 | 23-05-10 | 23-08-08 | 23-11-07 | 24-02-29 | - | - | - | - |
1COP in Million2COP
Estimates
Balance Sheet Analysis
| Fiscal Period: December | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Debt 1 | 29,539,363 | 39,454,000 | 78,883,872 | 98,571,654 | - | 84,429,621 | 81,784,648 | 74,287,842 |
| Net Cash position 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) | 0.9496 x | 2.343 x | 1.88 x | 1.31 x | - | 1.457 x | 1.453 x | 1.382 x |
| Free Cash Flow 1 | 13,900,915 | -1,839,000 | 9,685,405 | 15,504,000 | - | 21,889,759 | 25,507,449 | 23,191,061 |
| ROE (net income / shareholders' equity) | 24.2% | 3.11% | 27% | 43.2% | - | 22.9% | 21.8% | 19.4% |
| ROA (Net income/ Total Assets) | 10.3% | 1.23% | 8.7% | 12.3% | - | 7.93% | 8.41% | 8.24% |
| Assets 1 | 129,262,159 | 137,436,900 | 191,837,016 | 272,608,575 | - | 201,757,890 | 190,075,785 | 175,502,505 |
| Book Value Per Share 2 | - | - | 1,745 | 2,095 | - | 2,285 | - | - |
| Cash Flow per Share 2 | 674.0 | 223.0 | 548.0 | 881.0 | - | 1,764 | - | - |
| Capex 1 | 13,810,852 | 11,026,000 | 12,850,616 | 20,731,000 | - | 22,142,497 | 21,407,510 | 19,858,581 |
| Capex / Sales | 19.49% | 22.04% | 14.01% | 13% | - | 16.28% | 16% | 15.17% |
| Announcement Date | 20-02-26 | 21-02-23 | 22-03-01 | 23-02-28 | 24-02-29 | - | - | - |
1COP in Million2COP
Estimates
EPS & Dividend
Year-on-year evolution of the PER
Year-on-year evolution of the Yield
Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA
Trading Rating
Investor Rating
ESG Refinitiv
B+
Sell
Buy
Mean consensus
HOLD
Number of Analysts
8
Last Close Price
2,260
COP
Average target price
2,633
COP
Spread / Average Target
+16.50%
EPS Revisions
| 1st Jan change | Capi. | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.42% | 23.79B | |
| +7.43% | 295B | |
| +5.31% | 143B | |
| +56.15% | 128B | |
| +17.61% | 79.7B | |
| +7.50% | 74.72B | |
| +19.90% | 63B | |
| +7.84% | 57.08B | |
| +10.20% | 48.78B | |
| +29.93% | 35.94B |
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