The Paris Bourse was stable this morning, around 7387 points, helped by the automotive sector with +1.7% for Renault and +1.4% for Stellantis.

Caution remains the order of the day two days ahead of the release of US employment figures, which are likely to provide valuable clues as to the Fed's future rate-cutting timetable.

Investors are still betting on a forthcoming rate cut in the US, even though Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated last Friday that there is still a long way to go before inflation is brought down to around 2%.

However, they are hesitant about the timing of the Fed's next move, and are eagerly awaiting Friday's release of the monthly report on job creation in the USA to try to guess the central bank's intentions.

For the time being, the markets are counting on a 55% probability of a Fed rate cut in March, according to the CME Group's FedWatch barometer.

The ADP survey, published two days before the official employment figures, will therefore be closely watched by investors in the early afternoon to refine their judgement.

Other indicators due later in the day include the US trade balance and productivity figures for the third quarter.

Investors are hoping that all these statistics will bolster the prospect of a soft landing for the US economy and a rapid fall in the cost of credit.

In Europe, industrial orders in Germany should confirm the recessionary spiral threatening the country, while retail sales in the eurozone should show that households are finding it hard to recover from the inflationary shock.

But beyond today's announcements, it is above all Friday's employment figures that will count.

After November's good performance, markets should continue to catch their breath while waiting for a clearer picture, which seems to rule out big positions.

The interest-rate market, for its part, experienced a wave of euphoria, with dizzying spreads reaching -10 points for ten-year paper, which fell to 4.17%, an almost three-month low.

Buyers of Treasuries already seem convinced that hiring will begin to reflect an economic slowdown, which will reinforce the Fed's intention to 'pivot' and cut rates as early as March.

Despite long rates continuing to fall sharply, the dollar continues to show strength, notably against the euro, which is retreating to around 1.0790.

Oil prices continue to show their heaviness, with Brent crude nibbling 0.2% this morning towards $77.1 a barrel, confirming the cautious positioning of institutional investors and traders on black gold.

In their "shock" forecasts for 2024, Saxo Banque analysts yesterday mentioned a possible spike in oil prices to $150 a barrel by mid-year, due to stronger-than-expected demand.

In news from French companies, Sopra Steria reports that it has won two major contracts, worth a total of £369 million, from National Savings and Investments (NS&I), the British public savings bank best known for its Premium Bonds.

Orpea announces the launch of a capital increase with cancellation of the pre-emptive subscription right, reserved for the Caisse des Dépôts et Consignations, MAIF, CNP Assurances and MACSF Epargne Retraite consortium, and with a priority subscription right granted to existing shareholders.
This €1.16 billion capital increase will result in the issue of 65,173,064,696 new shares at a unit price of €0.0178.

Finally, Nokia and Orange announced on Wednesday that they had achieved 800Gbps throughput on the Dunant transatlantic cable, which links France and the United States over a distance of some 6,600 km.

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