The Paris Bourse (-0.05%) remains hesitant with 40 minutes to go, oscillating between red and green (thanks to a slight easing in interest rates).

Wall Street is also hesitating, with the Dow Jones at -0.2% and the S&P500 at +0.1%, as US job creation once again belies the most optimistic forecasts.
After a mild consolidation episode this morning, the CAC40 returned to equilibrium, but is still trailing the other European markets, which are opting more decisively for the upside, with +0.5% on the E-Stoxx50 (at 4,300) and the DAX40 (+0.6% at 15,660).660).
A sort of transatlantic communicating vessels phenomenon (liquidity flows) has been eclipsing all other micro or macroeconomic considerations (all economic logic has been laminated), for the past 4 months, inexorably and in total contradiction with a level of risk-free rates (well above that of equities), which is tending towards 4% in Europe and 5.50% in the USA.

US indices reacted negatively yesterday to statements by the Fed Chairman, who reaffirmed the institution's hawkish stance the previous day: he will reiterate these remarks this Wednesday before the US Senate.
During his hearing before the Senate Banking Committee, Jerome Powell confirmed that rates would go higher than expected at the beginning of the year, and would be maintained at a high level for a fairly long period in order to counter inflation.
According to the CME FedWatch barometer, bets on a 50 basis point hike are now in the majority, winning 73.5% of the votes versus 31.4% before Powell's speech.

The latest economic indicators show that inflationary pressures are more persistent than expected, but also that the job market is robust, with the unemployment rate at its lowest level since 1969, and that household consumption is holding up well.

In this respect, the US private sector created more jobs (20% more) than expected in February, according to ADP's monthly survey.

ADP counted 242,000 jobs created last month, whereas economists surveyed by Reuters were expecting an average of 200,000.

The firm also revised upwards its January estimates, which now show 119,000 jobs created, compared with 106,000 initially.

Thomas Barkin, a member of the FED and president of the Richmond office said - even before the ADP survey was published - that "the US labor market is proving incredibly resilient".

In the Eurozone, fourth-quarter seasonally-adjusted GDP remained stable, but fell by 0.1% in the EU compared with the previous quarter, according to an estimate published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.
In the third quarter of 2022, GDP had risen by 0.4% in both the eurozone and the EU.

Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally-adjusted GDP rose by 1.8% in the eurozone and 1.7% in the EU in Q4 2022, after +2.4% in the eurozone and +2.6% in the EU in Q3 2022.

Production of goods manufactured in Germany rose by 3.5% on a seasonally-adjusted basis, following a decline of 2.4% (revised figure vs. -3.1% on a preliminary basis) in December, according to figures from the Federal Statistics Office.

This afternoon, market participants will be watching a new speech by the Fed Chairman, this time scheduled to appear before the House Financial Services Committee.

On the currency markets, traders' reaction to Powell's comments was quite spectacular, with the dollar suddenly rising against the euro, which fell back to 1.0535.

On the interest-rate front, sovereign bond yields eased a little after the sharp jolts seen at the start of the week: our OATs erased -7.3pts to 3.1200%, Bunds -7pts to 2.625% (but the '1 year' posted 3.367% and the '2 year' peaked at 3.35%), Italian BTPs -12pts to 4.417%.

The yield on ten-year Treasuries eases by -5pts to around 3.925%, while the '2-year' remains unchanged at 5.01% and the '6-month' peaks at 5.27% (while the '30-year' is at 3.853%): we are witnessing the most radical inversion of the yield curve in 40 years.

On the stock side, Thales announced adjusted net income, Group share up +14% to ME 1,556 compared with 2021. Consolidated net income, Group share stands at 1,121 ME, up +3% on 2021.

Casino announces that it has begun studying a new project to sell part of its stake in Assaí for around 600 million dollars, which could, if necessary, be increased depending on market conditions.

Eurazeo's net income, Group share (+4.8%) stands at 595 ME in 2022, compared with 1,525 ME in 2021. Management confirms that it intends to double its assets under management to E60bn in 5 years' time, and to increase its EBITDA margin to 35-40% in the medium term.

Euroapi's disappointing results have led to a 22% plunge and a retracement of its IPO price of E12.42 a year ago.


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