Somewhat disturbingly, an ECB press release devoid of any surprises seems to have reassured the markets, which wiped out 80% of their lunchtime losses.

The ECB is maintaining its main deposit rate for the second time at 4%, noting that the disinflation trend is continuing and rates are sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation back to the 2% target.

However, recent statements by Christine Lagarde - and her main lieutenants - make it clear that the ECB remains vigilant with regard to the price-wage spiral, that it considers expectations of rate cuts to be premature, that it remains 'data dependent' and will only modify the cost of money once the FED has acted first ('rather this summer than in the spring': the ECB could wait until July).
As today's press release was very short and did not contain any original announcements, the markets found cause for hope in the disappearance of a recurring phrase: "domestic inflationary pressures remain".
On the economic front: the job market remains robust, with unemployment at its lowest level for 20 years, growth is virtually nil but could pick up again if demand picks up... but conflicts (Ukraine, Israel, Yemen) pose risks for global activity... and transport prices.
The current inflation rate remains close to 3.4% in 'Core', but has reached 4% in 'Services'.

This would explain the rebound of the CAC40 from -0.6% to -0.2% (from 7,411 to 7,441) and of the Euro-Stoxx50 (from -0.4% to -0.15%).

On the figures front, US real GDP (gross domestic product) growth for the fourth quarter of 2023 came in +1% and +1.3% above expectations, at +3.3% annualized, according to a first-ever estimate from the Commerce Department.

Growth in the world's leading economy is easing off from the roaring 4.9% seen in the third quarter.
The increase in the fourth quarter was mainly due to growth in consumer spending and exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased", says the Commerce Department.
Weekly jobless claims are up by +25,000:
The Labor Department reports 214,000 new claimants.

The four-week moving average - more representative of the underlying trend - came in at 202,250 this week, down by 1,500 on the previous week's revised average.

Lastly, the number of people receiving regular benefits rose by 27,000 to 1,833,000 in the week to January 8, the most recent period available for this statistic.

Let's take a look at the figures published in Europe: the business climate in France is stable compared with December 2023, according to the Insee synthetic indicator, which remains at 98, a level slightly below its long-term average (100).

Still on the statistics front, the business climate in Germany deteriorated in January, confirming the recessionary dynamic in which Europe's leading economy is evolving, according to the monthly survey published on Thursday by the Ifo institute.

The Ifo index - calculated from a sample of some 9,000 companies - came out at 85.2 this month, compared with 86.3 in December, while economists were on average expecting a slight improvement to 86.6.

On the currency markets, the euro gained +0.1% to 1.0900 against the greenback.
On the bond front, Bunds and OATs eased slightly by -3pts to 2.305% and 2.8020%, while Italian BTPs shed -3.5pts to 3.858%.

In French company news, STMicroelectronics (-1.8%) reported net income for the last quarter of 2023 down 13.8% to $1.08 billion, or $1.14 per share, with an operating margin of 23.9%, compared with 29.1% for the same period last year.

Publicis Groupe (+2.4%) reports anticipated net income growth of 4.2% to 13.1 billion euros for 2023, with organic growth of +6.3%, above its target range of +5.5-6% raised last October.

Finally, TotalEnergies announces that it has been selected, along with its partner Corio Generation, for their offshore wind project Attentive Energy Two for a 20-year contract to supply 1.34 GW of renewable electricity to the US state of New Jersey.


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