After 3 sessions of decline, the Paris stock market is picking up speed again, with the CAC40 climbing back above the 7,200 mark.
Although the bullish momentum is moderating slightly, the index is closing in on its zenith of last Friday, and a further gain of 0.4% this Friday could make for a 19th week of gains (since 09/30/2022).
The CAC 40 'GR' is testing the 21,200 mark and is once again in absolute record territory, well above the 21,000 of January 5, 2022.
The CAC is led by Legrand (+5%) and Crédit Agricole (+4.5%), which published their results this morning (see below).
The Euro-Stoxx50 climbed +1.1% to 4,255 in the wake of Amsterdam, which soared +1.6%.
In early trading, it became clear that the Nasdaq's -1.8% fall on Wednesday evening had no impact, and that the common thread was the upturn in bond markets, with OATs and Bunds erasing -4.5 basis points to 2.772% and 2.312% respectively.
Wall Street reopened higher, with +0.3% on the S&P500 and +0.6% on the Dow Jones, but scores have hardly changed in the last 2 90 minutes.

What's more, Germany's rather reassuring inflation figures seem to be taking precedence over concerns about the evolution of monetary policies.

The rise in consumer prices in Germany accelerated slightly year-on-year, to 8.7% in January from 8.6% in December, according to a first estimate published this morning by Destatis, but economists were anticipating a sharper acceleration, to around 8.9% (always that string of 'less worse than expected' when the figures are nevertheless not good).

Commerzbank points out, however, that 'the national CPI has moved to a new base year, so it is not yet possible to say whether inflation has risen or fallen'.

In the USA, jobless claims rose by 13,000 in the week to January 30, to 196.000 compared with 183,000 the previous week, according to the Labor Department.

Furthermore, the four-week moving average - considered a better indicator of the underlying trend in the labor market - showed a week-on-week decline of 2,500 to 189,750.
Finally, the number of people receiving regular benefits rose by 38,000 to 1,688,000 in the week to January 23, the latest week available for this statistic.

T-Bonds eased -2.5pts to 3.6150%, but the '6-month' only erased -1pt to 4.9150% and the '1-year' remained stable at 4.87%, demonstrating that expectations are tilting in favor of rates going beyond 5.25%, while US growth would suffer a slowdown by 2024.

With the US earnings season so far proving rather disappointing, investors are on the lookout for the slightest statement from their leaders regarding the outlook for activity in 2023.

On Wednesday, the Fed chairman said that he would not rule out accelerating the pace of Fed rate hikes if strong economic indicators warranted it.

His comments, which followed the latest jobs report showing that the labor market remained under pressure, as did wages and inflation, immediately influenced rate expectations.
John Williams, the head of the New York Fed, who is closest to Wall Street, made even firmer statements about the fight against inflation and the ultimate objective of key rates... and he is closing the door on rate cuts before 2024, a scenario which investors refuse to believe in.
According to the CME Group's FedWatch barometer, the estimated probability of a 50bp rate hike at the end of the March meeting, rather than a 25bp hike, has risen from 0% to 9% in less than a week, and a 25bp hike in May now garners 60% of votes.

"There is a growing divergence between the 'hawkish' outlook of central banks and the more 'dovish' outlook of markets", worry the Neuberger Berman teams.

"Policymakers insist they will 'stay the course', while markets believe they will 'change direction'," stresses the management company.

In company news, Legrand unveils a 10.5% rise in net income, group share, to €1 billion for 2022, with an adjusted operating margin before acquisitions of 20.7% of sales, up 0.2 points on 2021.

For 2022, Crédit Agricole SA presents net income, group share, of 5.44 billion euros, down 7% on a reported basis, but up 1.3% on an underlying basis (i.e. excluding specific items).

Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield reports adjusted recurring earnings per share (ARPS) of 9.31 euros for 2022, up 34.7%, 'thanks to the performance of the shopping center business and the marked rebound in the convention and exhibition business'... but the Group will not be distributing dividends for the 2022 financial year.

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