After hovering around equilibrium throughout the morning, the CAC40 took off at midday and ended the session with a gain of 1.86%, at 7141 points, a performance that enabled it to make up for much of the previous day's decline (-2.9%).

The Paris index was buoyed by a rebound in banking stocks, with Societe Generale up 2.3% and BNP Paribas up 3.1%.

At 1:30 p.m., investors took note of a slowdown in price rises in the United States in February, which reached their lowest level for almost two years, according to official statistics.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.4% month-on-month, following a 0.5% increase in January, announced the Department of Labor.

Year-on-year, the CPI is up 6%, its lowest level since September 2021, compared with 6.4% in January.

These figures are perfectly in line with economists' expectations, who were forecasting an average monthly rise of 0.4% in the CPI index, and 6% on an annual basis.

Conversely, the core CPI benefited from a decline in prices for used cars and healthcare services, but came in at 5.5%, in line with analysts' forecasts, who noted that this was the lowest level since December 2021....still in the context of a 'base effect' (for consumers, their purchasing power is still seriously challenged).

Inflation has therefore not said its last word, but the markets seem to think that a major tipping point has just occurred, and that the Fed has no choice but to limit, or even postpone, its interest rate hike program in order to avoid any 'systemic' risk.

According to the CME's FedWatch barometer, market participants rate the probability of a status quo from the Fed next week at 47%, with the probability of a 25bp hike at 53% (and expectations of a +50bp hike down to zero).

Strategists agree, however, that markets are unlikely to calm down any time soon.

The CBOE Volatility Index, often dubbed the 'fear barometer', which measures expectations of fluctuations in the S&P 500, rose again yesterday to reach new highs since last autumn, before falling back by -7% to 23.60.

The surge in volatility that accompanied the SVB affair could therefore be a harbinger of further tremors to come.

In its latest annual report, Credit Suisse acknowledged that it had identified "significant weaknesses" in the internal control of its financial statements for the years 2021 and 2022.

The bond markets, which had recorded a quite simply historic rise the previous day (and short rates easing to levels not seen in 401 years), saw yields ease back a little, with +14Pts on our OATs to 2.945%, +16Pts on Bunds to 2.442%, and +13Pts on Spanish 'Bonos' (to 3.51%), which did not slip, despite the higher-than-expected level of inflation in Spain.
Note a +15Pts rise in the yield on US T-Bonds to 3.665%, which seems to belie Wall Street's somewhat 'hedonistic' reading of CPI.

The Dollar recovers +0.3% to 1.0700/E

In company news, Vivendi enters into exclusive negotiations with the IMI group, a subsidiary of CMI, for the sale of 100% of the capital of Editis. Vivendi announces that it has received several offers for the sale of the entire share capital of Editis.

Icade and Primonial Reim have signed an exclusive agreement for the purchase of Icade's stake in Icade Santé. The total value of Icade's stake in Foncière Santé is estimated at €2.6 billion, based on NTA NAV at December 31, 2022.

Finally, Carrefour announces the opening in April of its new virtual store on the Rakuten marketplace. This partnership will enable Carrefour to integrate Rakuten's affiliate program.


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