Projected Income Statement: Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited

Forecast Balance Sheet: Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 -14,303 -17,580 -19,232 -17,937 -12,823 -13,857 -15,437 -15,361
Change - -22.91% -9.4% 6.73% 28.51% -8.06% -11.4% 0.49%
Announcement Date 3/28/22 3/22/23 3/26/24 3/30/25 3/26/26 - - -
1CNY in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 1,602 1,738 895.4 1,941 2,105 1,413 1,464 1,407
Change - 8.49% -48.48% 116.82% 8.46% -32.9% 3.61% -3.9%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 4,441 3,141 1,882 3,213 2,487 4,252 4,488 4,721
Change - -29.28% -40.07% 70.72% -22.6% 70.95% 5.55% 5.2%
Announcement Date 3/28/22 3/22/23 3/26/24 3/30/25 3/26/26 - - -
1CNY in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 18.39% 18.89% 20.23% 21.85% 22.99% 21.3% 21.61% 22.02%
EBIT Margin (%) 14.77% 15.54% 16.9% 18.18% 19.15% 18.05% 18.53% 18.97%
EBT Margin (%) 14.85% 15.56% 16.93% 18.3% 19.37% 19.68% 20.14% 20.51%
Net margin (%) 10.46% 11.53% 12.58% 13.52% 14.13% 14.45% 14.83% 15.15%
FCF margin (%) 14.72% 9.76% 5.55% 10% 7.66% 12.84% 13.21% 13.53%
FCF / Net Income (%) 140.75% 84.64% 44.1% 73.96% 54.21% 88.8% 89.09% 89.27%

Profitability

        
ROA 7.17% 7.66% 8.57% 8.63% 8.86% 8.82% 8.88% 8.9%
ROE 14.47% 15.3% 16.12% 15.38% 15.5% 14.86% 14.86% 14.86%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) - - - - - - - -
Debt / Free cash flow - - - - - - - -

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 5.31% 5.4% 2.64% 6.04% 6.48% 4.27% 4.31% 4.03%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 28.88% 28.59% 13.04% 27.64% 28.21% 20.02% 19.94% 18.3%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 36.07% 55.34% 47.57% 60.41% 84.66% 33.23% 32.62% 29.79%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 3.26 3.576 2.036 3.778 3.366 4.328 4.71 4.85
Change - 9.7% -43.07% 85.58% -10.9% 28.55% 8.82% 2.98%
Dividend per Share 1 1.1 1.8 2 2.2 2.35 2.445 2.627 2.693
Change - 63.64% 11.11% 10% 6.82% 4.03% 7.47% 2.49%
Book Value Per Share 1 16.86 18.69 20.12 21.3 22.47 23.62 25.46 26.14
Change - 10.84% 7.67% 5.87% 5.47% 5.12% 7.8% 2.68%
EPS 1 2.324 2.728 3.132 3.187 3.363 3.509 3.717 3.846
Change - 17.38% 14.81% 1.76% 5.52% 4.33% 5.94% 3.46%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 1,364,355 1,364,233 1,364,197 1,364,197 1,364,195 1,364,195 1,364,195 1,364,195
Announcement Date 3/28/22 3/22/23 3/26/24 3/30/25 3/26/26 - - -
1CNY
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E 15.2x 14.4x
PBR 2.27x 2.1x
EV / Sales 1.49x 1.4x
Yield 4.57% 4.91%

EPS & Dividend

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
-
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
BUY
Number of Analysts
21
Last Close Price
53.50CNY
Average target price
72.16CNY
Spread / Average Target
+34.88%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise

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