Projected Income Statement: Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited

Forecast Balance Sheet: Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited

Fiscal Period: December 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Net Debt 1 -17,722 -14,303 -17,580 -19,232 -17,937 -19,108 -20,282 -20,976
Change - 19.29% -22.91% -9.4% 6.73% -6.53% -6.14% -3.42%
Announcement Date 3/5/21 3/28/22 3/22/23 3/26/24 3/30/25 - - -
1CNY in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited

Fiscal Period: December 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
CAPEX 1 1,275 1,602 1,738 895.4 1,941 1,465 1,376 1,388
Change - 25.67% 8.49% -48.48% 116.82% -24.55% -6.04% 0.88%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 3,679 4,441 3,141 1,882 3,213 3,971 4,583 4,918
Change - 20.73% -29.28% -40.07% 70.72% 23.57% 15.42% 7.3%
Announcement Date 3/5/21 3/28/22 3/22/23 3/26/24 3/30/25 - - -
1CNY in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited

Fiscal Period: December 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 15.75% 18.39% 18.89% 20.23% 21.85% 20.9% 21.42% 22.07%
EBIT Margin (%) 11.71% 14.77% 15.54% 16.9% 18.18% 17.25% 18.15% 18.77%
EBT Margin (%) 11.67% 14.85% 15.56% 16.93% 18.3% 19.35% 20.18% 20.94%
Net margin (%) 7.93% 10.46% 11.53% 12.58% 13.52% 14.32% 14.87% 15.4%
FCF margin (%) 13.25% 14.72% 9.76% 5.55% 10% 12.11% 13.57% 14.13%
FCF / Net Income (%) 167.11% 140.75% 84.64% 44.1% 73.96% 84.53% 91.3% 91.75%

Profitability

        
ROA 5.58% 7.17% 7.66% 8.57% 8.63% 8.96% 9.2% 9.31%
ROE 11.13% 14.47% 15.3% 16.12% 15.38% 15.52% 15.95% 16%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) - - - - - - - -
Debt / Free cash flow - - - - - - - -

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 4.59% 5.31% 5.4% 2.64% 6.04% 4.47% 4.08% 3.99%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 29.15% 28.88% 28.59% 13.04% 27.64% 21.37% 19.03% 18.07%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 34.65% 36.07% 55.34% 47.57% 60.41% 36.89% 30.03% 28.23%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 3.631 3.26 3.576 2.036 3.778 4.03 4.888 4.657
Change - -10.22% 9.7% -43.07% 85.58% 6.65% 21.31% -4.73%
Dividend per Share 1 0.75 1.1 1.8 2 2.2 2.395 2.534 2.695
Change - 46.67% 63.64% 11.11% 10% 8.86% 5.81% 6.33%
Book Value Per Share 1 15.12 16.86 18.69 20.12 21.3 21.93 23.34 24.81
Change - 11.51% 10.84% 7.67% 5.87% 2.94% 6.42% 6.34%
EPS 1 1.629 2.324 2.728 3.132 3.187 3.444 3.673 3.916
Change - 42.66% 17.38% 14.81% 1.76% 8.07% 6.63% 6.62%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 1,364,183 1,364,355 1,364,233 1,364,197 1,364,197 1,364,195 1,364,195 1,364,195
Announcement Date 3/5/21 3/28/22 3/22/23 3/26/24 3/30/25 - - -
1CNY
Estimates
2025 *2026 *
P/E ratio 18.1x 16.9x
PBR 2.84x 2.67x
EV / Sales 1.68x 1.6x
Yield 3.85% 4.07%
More valuation ratios * Estimated data

EPS & Dividend

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
-
Quality
-
ESG MSCI
-
More Ratings
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
BUY
Number of Analysts
26
Last Close Price
62.20CNY
Average target price
76.92CNY
Spread / Average Target
+23.66%
Consensus

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise

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