Terna S p A : Monthly Report 31/05/2024

Monthly Report on the Electricity System May 2024

Monthly Report on the Electricity System

May 2024

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Monthly Report on the Electricity System

May 2024

Energy

Balance

Sheets

page 5

Electricity System

page 14

Electricity Market

page 19

In May, electricity demand was 24,698 GWh, an increase compared to the same month of the previous year (+1.9%) and down compared to May 2022 (-5.6%). There was also a drop in foreign exchange (-13.0%) compared to the same month of 2023.

In 2024, electricity demand (125,902 GWh) was higher compared to the same period in 2023 (+1.1%) but was lower compared to the cumulative figure for 2022 (-3.9%). The value of electricity demand was achieved with the same number of working days (22) and with almost the same average temperature (0.4°C) as May last year. In adjusted terms the value is unchanged. The annual trend of May 2024 (compared to May 2023) for the industrial electricity consumption index was positive (+1.4%) with raw data.

In May 2024, 32.2% of the electricity demand was met via production from Non-Renewable Energy Sources, 52.5% via Renewable Energy Sources and the remainder via foreign exchange. In May, production from Renewable Energy Sources increased (+26.5%) compared to the same month of the previous year. In 2024 the operating capacity of renewables increased by 3,015 MW. This value is 896 MW higher (+42%) compared to the same period of the previous year. In the first five months of 2024, PV operating capacity increased by 2,768 MW. During the same period of 2023 the increase was 1,853 MW, recording an increase of 915 MW (+49%). In the first five months of 2024, operating wind capacity increased by 262 MW. During the same period of 2023, the increase was 247 MW, which is an increase of 15 MW (+6%).

The May total for withdrawal programmes on the DAM was approximately € 2.1 Bn, (+15% compared to the previous month and -10% compared to May 2023).

In May 2024, the spread between average bid-up and bid-down prices on the MSD was €96/MWh, (+2% compared to the previous month and -17% compared to May 2023). Total volumes decreased compared to the previous month (-2%).

In May 2024, the spread between bid-up and bid-down prices on the Balancing Market was146 €/MWh (+5% compared to the previous

month and +1% compared to May 2023). Total volumes increased compared to the previous month (+3%).

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Monthly Report on the Electricity System

May 2024

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Monthly Report on the Electricity System

May 2024

Energy Balance Sheets

Monthly Summary and Short-Term Analysis

In May, electricity demand was 24,698 GWh, an increase compared to the same month of the previous year (+1.9%) and down compared to May 2022 (-5.6%). There was also a drop in foreign exchange (-13.0%) compared to the same month of 2023.

In 2024, electricity demand (125,902 GWh) was higher compared to the same period in 2023 (+1.1%) but was lower compared to the cumulative figure for 2022 (-3.9%).

Demand breakdown - coverage by sources

[GWh]	May 2024	May 2023 % 24/23 Jan-May 24	Jan-May 23 % 24/23

Renewable Hydro

Pumping Production(2)

Thermal

of which Biomass of which Hard Coal

Geothermal

Wind

Photovoltaic

Net Total Production

Pumping

Net Total Production for Consumption

of which RES (3) of which not RES

Import

Export

Net Foreign Exchange

Electricity demand(1)

5,586	4,145	34.7%	19,613	10,856	80.7%
171	136	25.9%	713	711	0.4%
9,299	10,890	-14.6%	55,479	67,137	-17.4%
1,277	1,201	6.3%	6,446	6,250	3.1%
245	560	-56.2%	1,568	6,805	-77.0%
442	462	-4.3%	2,230	2,218	0.5%
1,678	1,519	10.5%	11,280	10,341	9.1%
3,990	2,928	36.3%	13,450	11,474	17.2%
21,166	20,080	5.4%	102,765	102,736	0.0%
245	194	26.3%	1,019	1,015	0.4%
20,921	19,886	5.2%	101,746	101,721	0.0%
12,973	10,255	26.5%	53,019	41,139	28.9%
7,948	9,631	-17.5%	48,727	60,582	-19.6%
4,183	4,615	-9.4%	25,538	24,089	6.0%
406	275	47.6%	1,382	1,218	13.5%
3,777	4,340	-13.0%	24,156	22,871	5.6%
24,698	24,226	1.9%	125,902	124,592	1.1%

In May 2024, renewable hydroelectric production (+34.7%), photovoltaic production (+36.3%) and wind production (10.5%) were up, while thermal production was down (-14.6%) compared to the same month the previous year.

In 2024, there was a change in exports, which increased (+13.5%) compared to 2023. The trend in total net production for consumption in May was up (+5.2%) compared to the same month in 2023

1. Electricity Demand = Net Total Production for Consumption + Foreign Balance
2. Pumping production is calculated assuming theoretical efficiency during the pumping phase
3. RES Production = Renewable Hydro + Biomass + Geothermal + Wind + Photovoltaic -

Source: Terna

The value of electricity demand was achieved with the same number of working days (22) and with almost the same average temperature (0.4°C) as May last year. In adjusted terms the value is unchanged.

In the first five months of the year national demand increased by 1.1% compared to the corresponding period of 2023 (+0.2% adjusted value).

The short-term data, adjusted for seasonal, calendar and temperature effects, recorded a slight increase in May 2024 compared to April (+0.8%).

Demand - seasonality adjusted

When adjusted for seasonal, temperature and calendar effects, the figure for the period represents a slightly positive fluctuation (+0.8%)

Source: Terna

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Monthly Report on the Electricity System

May 2024

Energy Balance Sheets

IMCEI

The variation for May 2024 (compared to May 2023) was positive (+1.4%) based on the raw data; using the data adjusted for calendar differences, the change remains the same. In the first five months of the year, the index rose slightly (+0.6%).

IMCEI short-term analysis (2015 base = 100)

In May, the variation in the monthly index of Italian electricity consumption was positive, compared to May 2023

Source: Terna

The short-term data, adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects, showed an increase in the industrial electricity consumption index in May 2024 (+1.2%) compared to April.

Monthly Industrial Electrical Consumption Index - IMCEI (2015 base = 100)

When adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects, the monthly figure for May was positive compared to the previous month

Source: Terna

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Monthly Report on the Electricity System

May 2024

Energy Balance Sheets

IMSER

The annual trend of March 2024 (compared to March 2023) increased by +4.8% with raw data. In the period January-March 2024, electricity consumption in the services sector had increased overall by +5.0% compared to 2023.

Monthly Service Sector Consumption Index (basis 2019 = 100)

Source: Terna elaboration of data based on a sample of distributors

In detail, there was an increase in the following categories in March 2024: Hotels, restaurants and bars; Other services; Public Administration and Defence; Professional, scientific and technical services; Trade; Real estate; Information and communications. Meanwhile, there was a decrease in Finance and insurance; Education; Health and social care; Health services; and Transportation and storage.

In the first three months of the year 2024, the categories of Finance and insurance, Education, Health and social care, and Veterinary services decreased compared to 2023. There was an increase in all the other sectors.

IMSER sector analysis (basis 2019 = 100) - YOY change and annual cumulative contribution of the sectors

In March, the change in the monthly index of Italian electricity consumption for the services sector was positive (+4.8%) compared to March 2023

The cumulative figure for January- March 2024 was up by +5.0% compared to the same period in 2023.

Source: Terna elaboration of data based on a sample of distributors

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Monthly Report on the Electricity System

May 2024

Energy Balance Sheets

Energy Demand Mix

In May 2024, 32.2% of the electricity demand was met via production from Non- Renewable Energy Sources, 52.5% via Renewable Energy Sources and the remainder via foreign exchange.

In 2024, electricity demand was 125,902 GWh, 38.7% of which was met via production from Non-Renewable Energy Sources, 42.1% from Renewable Energy Sources and the remainder from the foreign balance.

Demand breakdown - coverage by sources

Coverage of demand from renewable sources grew from 42.3% in May 2023 to 52.5% in May 2024

In 2024 coverage of demand from non- renewables fell from 48.6% in 2023 to 38.7% in 2024

Source: Terna

2024 trend in demand breakdown and difference from 2023 and 2022

In 2024, electricity demand on the grid is higher than 2023 (+1.1%) and down compared to the cumulative figure for 2022 (-3.9%).

In 2024, energy production from renewable sources totalled 53.0 TWh, up compared to 2023 (+28.9%)

Source: Terna

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Monthly Report on the Electricity System

May 2024

Energy Balance Sheets

Details of Renewable Energy Sources

In May, production from Renewable Energy Sources increased (+26.5%) compared to the same month of the previous year. Specifically, there was an increase in renewable hydroelectric production (+34.7%), in photovoltaic production (+36.3%), and in wind production (+10.5%).

RES Production - Breakdown

In May 2024, the greater contribution of renewable energy sources to the total is attributed to renewable hydroelectric production (43.1%) and photovoltaic production (30.8%)

In 2024 the ratio of renewable hydroelectric production increased while the contribution from the other sources decreased overall compared to 2023

Source: Terna

2024 trend in net production from RES and difference from 2023

In May 2024, production from RES represented 61.3% of total net national production, an increase compared to the same month in 2023 (51.1%).

In 2024, production from RES represented 51.6% of total net national production, an increase compared to the cumulative figure for 2023 (40.0%)

Source: Terna

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Monthly Report on the Electricity System

May 2024

Energy Balance Sheets

Historical Energy Balance Sheets

In 2024, total net production allocated for consumption (101,746 GWh) met 80.8% of national electricity demand (125,902 GWh).

2024 Historical Monthly Energy Balance Sheet

[GWh]	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Total
Renewable Hydro	3,033	2,606	3,855	4,534	5,586								19,613
Pumping Production (2)	64	106	158	214	172								713
Thermal	13,496	12,178	11,128	9,378	9,299								55,479
of which Biomass	1,332	1,231	1,343	1,264	1,277								6,446
of which Hard Coal	345	467	243	268	245								1,568
Geothermal	458	432	460	438	442								2,230
Wind	2,802	2,295	2,414	2,091	1,678								11,280
Photovoltaic	1,371	1,714	2,672	3,703	3,990								13,450
Net Total Production	21,224	19,331	20,687	20,357	21,166								102,765
Pumping	92	151	226	305	245								1,019
Net Total Production for Consumption	21,132	19,180	20,461	20,052	20,921								101,746
of which RES (3)	8,995	8,278	10,743	12,029	12,973								53,019
of which not RES	12,137	10,902	9,718	8,023	7,948								48,727
Import	5,868	6,258	5,424	3,805	4,183								25,538
Export	279	145	187	365	406								1,382
Net Foreign Exchange	5,589	6,113	5,237	3,440	3,777								24,156
Electricity demand (1)	26,721	25,293	25,698	23,492	24,698								125,902

Source: Terna

In 2024, net total production remained steady compared to the same period in 2023, and peak electricity demand was reached in January, with 26,721 GWh.

The developments in the monthly balance sheet for 2023 are provided below.

2023 Historical Monthly Energy Balance Sheet

[GWh]	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr		May		Jun		Jul		Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Total
Renewable Hydro	2,053	1,530	1,604	1,524	4,145	4,878	4,402	3,884	3,546	3,269	4,125	3,284	38,244
Pumping Production (2)	135	99	172	168	136	95	104	160	100	137	129	95	1,530
Thermal	15,618	14,756	14,633	11,240	10,890	12,256	15,608	12,365	13,529	12,763	11,269	13,007	157,934
of which Biomass	1,366	1,200	1,349	1,135		1,201		1,233		1,342		1,317	1,273	1,274	1,207	1,212	15,108
of which Hard Coal	2,294	1,868	1,881	202		560		1,226		1,041		662	914	461	579	419	12,108
Geothermal	458	414	442	442	462	436	445	439	445	462	444	458	5,347
Wind	2,281	1,816	2,561	2,164	1,519	1,034	1,347	1,735	1,645	1,863	2,968	2,441	23,374
Photovoltaic	1,092	1,721	2,635	3,098	2,928	3,515	3,868	3,738	2,991	2,277	1,534	1,198	30,595
Net Total Production	21,637	20,336	22,047	18,636	20,080	22,214	25,774	22,321	22,256	20,770	20,469	20,483	257,023
Pumping	193	142	246	240	194	136	148	228	143	195	184	136	2,185
Net Total Production for Consumption	21,444	20,194	21,801	18,396	19,886	22,078	25,626	22,093	22,113	20,575	20,285	20,347	254,838
of which RES (3)	7,250	6,680	8,591	8,363	10,255	11,096	11,405	11,113	9,900	9,145	10,278	8,593	112,668
of which not RES	14,194	13,514	13,210 10,033	9,631	10,982	14,221	10,980 12,213 11,430 10,007 11,754	142,170
Import	5,080	4,943	4,445	5,006	4,615	3,546	4,651	3,657	3,908	4,987	4,810	4,924	54,572
Export	352	233	188	170	275	314	323	338	248	211	266	402	3,320
Net Foreign Exchange	4,728	4,710	4,257	4,836	4,340	3,232	4,328	3,319	3,660	4,776	4,544	4,522	51,252
Electricity demand (1)	26,172	24,904	26,058	23,232	24,226	25,310	29,954	25,412	25,773	25,351	24,829	24,869	306,090

In 2023, the month with the highest demand for electricity was July, with 29,954 GWh

Source: Terna

1. Electricity Demand = Net Total Production for Consumption + Foreign Balance
2. Pumping production is calculated assuming theoretical efficiency during the pumping phase
3. RES Production = Renewable Hydro + Biomass + Geothermal + Wind + Photovoltaic

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