Europe's main stock markets are expected to open lower on Friday, following in the footsteps of Wall Street and Asian markets, amid renewed concerns about inflation, the economy and interest rates.

Early indications suggest that Frankfurt's Dax will lose 0.75% at opening, London's FTSE 100 0.38% and the EuroStoxx 50 index 0.56%.

Short-term US bond yields are trading at an almost one-month high, with the two-year, the most sensitive to changes in interest rate and inflation expectations, hitting its highest since January 6 at 4.514% on Thursday.

"Is inflation calming down? That's really the central question for this year," asked Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin. In his view, the slowdown seen so far is mainly due to falling goods prices.

Macro-economic concerns have been at the heart of the market's questions since the publication of monthly job creation figures in the USA, which came in well above expectations. Statistics on weekly jobless claims in the USA, published on Thursday, failed to reassure, as the four-week moving average showed a fall to 189,250 from 191,750 previously. This confirms the dynamism of the job market as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) seeks to curb demand to curb inflation.

The Chief Executive Officer of JPMorgan Chase, the leading US bank, said it was premature to claim victory in the fight against inflation, estimating that Fed interest rates could rise above 5% if high prices persist. Monthly US consumer price figures will be published next Tuesday.

In Europe, where the same questions about inflation, economic conditions and interest rates are fuelling debate, investors will be watching this Friday for the first estimate of British gross domestic product (GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2022. The Reuters consensus forecasts zero growth quarter-on-quarter and a slowdown to 0.4% year-on-year, following a contraction of 0.3% quarter-on-quarter and an expansion of 1.9% year-on-year in the third quarter.

L'Oréal reported like-for-like sales growth of 8.1% in the fourth quarter, slightly slower than in the previous three months, as solid demand in the United States and Europe helped offset the impact of disruptions due to COVID-19 in China.

A WALL STREET

The New York Stock Exchange finished lower on Thursday, with the rise in US Treasury yields overshadowing strong corporate results and weighing on initial gains linked to renewed optimism about Fed policy.

The Dow Jones index gave up 0.73%, or 249.13 points, to 33,699.88 points.

The broader S&P-500 lost 36.36 points, or 0.88%, to 4,081.50.

The Nasdaq Composite was down 120.94 points (1.02%) at 11,789.58.

ASIA

On the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the Nikkei index ended up 0.31% at 27,670.98 points, while the broader Topix index advanced 0.1% to 1,986.96 points.

In China, the Shanghai SSE Composite gave up 0.3% and the CSI 300 shed 0.58%.

The MSCI index of Asian and Pacific stocks (excluding Japan) contracted by 0.91% and is set to post a weekly loss of 1.36, following a 1.16% decline the previous week.

On the statistics front, producer prices in China fell more than expected in January, with the PPI index down 0.8% year-on-year, following a 0.7% decline the previous month. The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 2.1% year-on-year, following a 1.8% increase in December.

CHANGES

The dollar index, which measures fluctuations in the greenback against a basket of reference currencies, rose by 0.097%, closing in on its highest level since January 6, reached on Tuesday at 103.96 points.

The euro fell by 0.12% to $1.0723.

RATES

The yield on ten-year US Treasury bonds was stable in Tokyo trading on Friday, standing at 3.67%, while the two-year yield was trading at 4.49%, after rising sharply the previous day.

OIL

Oil prices retreated slightly on Friday but were heading for a weekly gain, as the market continued to oscillate between fears of a recession in the United States and hopes of a strong upturn in demand in China.

Brent crude gave up 0.12% to $84.40 a barrel, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) 0.26% to $77.86.

(Written by Claude Chendjou, edited by Nicolas Delame)

by Claude Chendjou