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Vivaldi faces a final exam, with three major dossiers still pending: Engie, pensions and tax reform. Immediately, Prime Minister Alexander De Croo (Open Vld) has to work hard, after the small success of his budget audit, to maintain the image that Vivaldi "still works. For certainly in the negotiations with the French energy giant, things are squeaking and creaking: the deadline was originally set for mid-March, but this has in the meantime generously passed. Everything revolves around money: at what amount will Engie get the bill for the cleanup capped? For the Greens it is a vital dossier, but do they have a grip on the negotiations? In addition, starting this week, the conversation about tax reforms begins. Finance Minister Vincent Van Peteghem (cd&v) set the stakes high, proposing a total tax shift of 6 billion. Last year, when it was decided by all of Vivaldi to implement this tax reform, the amount was much lower. But liberals, greens and socialists are already at loggerheads over how to implement the shift. In any case, pensions will follow first: a breakthrough is still needed there too, under pressure from Europe.

In the news: When white smoke about Engie?

The details: "The dossier is in a state of flux, but we are not going to be backed into a corner," is what the Greens are saying. There, there is annoyance with coalition colleagues, who want a deal quickly.

  • "Of course Engie also wants a deal. They have every interest in it. No more uncertainty about the bill. And suppose suddenly see that this bill is historically underestimated, what does that give for the stock price?" Senior sources within Vivaldi are confident of it: it is moving at the French energy giant.
  • Earlier, positive news also came from the Sixteen: for example, at a farewell dinner the last week of March, for Etienne Davignon at the prestigious Brussels Hotel Solvay, a high-level "breakthrough" was also said to have been achieved, with the Engie top. And for the prime minister, it is pretty clear, in terms of the order for the files until the summer: first Engie, then pensions and finally tax reform.
  • At the same time, there is the painful fact that the Easter vacations are over and there is still no agreement with the French. However, that was first scheduled for the end of 2022, but that failed. Then was supposed to be , but that deadline was not met either.
  • That the dossier is leading to tensions within Vivaldi should come as no surprise: , both and the MR. Green and Ecolo already had to swallow that Doel 4 and Tihange 3 remain open, but in the negotiations with Engie, they do not want to bend over the counter demand made by Engie. The French want certainty about the final price of the nuclear power plants: a ceiling on the cost of waste disposal and demolition of the plants, is what they demand. Double swallow, then, for the Greens, who have always said that "the polluter would pay."
  • That exercise is a dance of billions, with enormous impact in the future. Energy Minister Tinne Van der Straeten (Green) herself used amounts up to 41 billion euros, while it was leaked from Paris that Engie wanted to go up to a maximum of 20 billion. Among the Greens, exasperation has been high in recent months, about "party chairmen who want to organize a quick sell-out now just to have a quick deal anyway." A clear sneer at Georges-Louis Bouchez (MR).
  • "Engie has made profits from nuclear power for decades. There is no way that the waste bill, which we have been warning about for forty years, would then go to the taxpayer. Not today and not to my daughters' generation either," Green president Jeremie Vaneeckhout made the case, yesterday on VTM.
  • But within Vivaldi, people are also pushing against it. After all, does Groen have a grip on the dossier? ", that dossier lies entirely with the prime minister," says a blue source. When soon the powder vapor rises, and the inevitable agreement becomes visible, this discussion will also erupt: who really negotiated, with the French? And who can take the feathers in their cap?

Starting shot: This week, talks on tax reform begin. There were preliminary skirmishes in the media.

  • "A seven out of ten," Melissa Depraetere, the group leader of Vooruit in the Chamber, gives Vivaldi, as a report, in The Sunday. But a huge sneer immediately followed: "Without MR Chairman Georges-Louis Bouchez, the seven would have been a nine. Of that I am sure. He creates amateurism in the team. , to the point of being moronic."
  • And right away, Vooruit set things straight, about what they still expect around fiscal reform. It must come, "if necessary we will tie Bouchez to a tree." In doing so, the strong emphasized "taxing large wealth more." This can be done through "rental income, or income from shares," said Depraetere, who also immediately came up with an old socialist hobbyhorse: the asset register, which "must provide a good overview of assets."
  • That May 1 is coming is clear: the bidding on the left is big. For Vaneeckhout also spoke of "," in his interview on VTM Sunday. A weekend earlier, PS Deputy Prime Minister Pierre-Yves Dermagne had drawn another line: any new effort by the federal government will have to talk "about a higher , about tax on shares, about taxes on the liquidation bonus when a company is dissolved."
  • On the right, it was impossible to avoid reactions. On the Seventh Day, Alexia Bertrand (Open Vld) was allowed to prove that her blood colors dark blue: "If you have 54 percent government spending, you absolutely must cut spending. That's like if a doctor had a patient with bleeding and then just gave you more blood, without stopping the blood loss. That's absurd."
  • For once, Bertrand also defended her former party leader Bouchez: "He was an ally in the last budget audit." According to her, it would be better for PS president Paul Magnette and Vooruit president Conner Rousseau "to have a picnic together under an oak tree of wisdom, to talk about the reforms."
  • That Depraetere himself, by the way, admitted that "more could be achieved with Bart De Wever's N-VA than with Bouchez's MR," prompted the latter to hack yet again at "a new left-wing nationalist axis," which he christened the "New Forward Alliance. "Dividing the country and spending money that isn't there.... The binder of the N-VA-PS alliance," he stated. Not an immediately calm climate, then, as talks begin between the cabinets at the technical level, on

The gist: Actually, such a tax reform should "only" amount to 900 million. Van Peteghem bet high, to land a little lower.

  • That you should not teach the entourage of Deputy Prime Minister Vincent Van Peteghem (cd&v) anything about communication is clear. While nothing has actually been achieved yet in terms of tax reform, the Finance Minister already has the image of a specialist in his field, who absolutely wants this reform.
  • Before the Easter vacations, Van Peteghem explained his plans to the press and coalition partners. The plans included a total of 6 billion euros in "shift", new taxes, but also, and above all, new .
  • Only, in the plans that all of Vivaldi knocked on the door, at the 2023 budget preparation in the fall of '22, there was a . For the notifications of the decisions speak of "a net effort not less than the amount needed to eliminate the remaining portion of the Special Social Security Contribution (BBSZ)."
  • That BBSZ is an old tax, dating back to the time of Jean-Luc Dehaene (cd&v), and which Van Peteghem has already partially abolished: already 300 million has been done. That leaves some room of 900 million euros left, to be abolished. In other words, a tax shift of 900 million, that's what all the partners of Vivaldi agreed on, in October.
  • That is far less than the 6 billion that Van Peteghem put in. But among other things, the last budget audit already took away some proposals on the revenue side from his 6 billion: they have already been deployed to get the budget a bit more in order anyway. It is not hard to predict that, given the huge ideological divisions and the elections that are not far away anymore, it will soon be a much smaller end result. That is allowed, if you have bet very high.
  • "Above all, our proposal makes it clear that it really can be done, if people really want it," the Van Peteghem administration finely noted.

Also noted: There is also a lot to say about pensions. Like early retirement, which doesn't work.

  • The second big dossier left for Vivaldi remains the first that was also white smoke at the time: . At its launch in October 2020, the Socialists were triumphant, having brought in 1,500 euros of net pensions. Three years later, that trophy remains intact, and the PS still wonders why they would give anything off now, on that front.
  • But at the same time, there is pressure from Europe: they want any new pension reform to be at least budget neutral. And that relative to 2020. That means there would have to be a correction (i.e. savings) of .
  • Politically, that's unachievable, but the pressure to do "something" anyway is and remains huge. Because over the vacations came fresh warnings, including from the , which warned about the European budget rules, which will be back in place starting next year. By 2026, the deficit must be below 3 percent of GDP again, but even in the most optimistic scenario, that means savings of as much as 12 billion euros: the deficit now sits at 5.1 percent of GDP.
  • At the same time, pension reform advocates do have some ammunition. For example, this morning Professor Stijn Baert (UGent) came to explain in just about every media outlet that the current early retirement scheme, renamed SWT, does not work. There is hardly any re-employment of older workers, which was nevertheless the intention: barely 0.62 percent return to work, according to . Or put another way: in practice, SWT is simply the early retirement of old.
  • These figures come as no surprise: even union boss , with the very simple message that he stopped working. Only after immense criticism did he adjust that, but Baert's figures actually prove him right: everyone who takes SWT as an arrangement de facto quits and in practice retires.
  • In this way, the spotlight is once again very much on this regulation, which prevents older people from staying in work: a condition for achieving an employment rate of 80 percent, as in the Netherlands, Germany and the Scandinavian countries. Then people will inevitably have to work longer. Only: politically that is an absolute taboo for PS and Ecolo.

Just write in your calendar: June 9, 2024 is the "mother of all elections.

  • So it's still over a year until the 2024 elections: presumably we won't go to the polls until Sunday, June 9. In doing so, Belgium aligns the date with the European elections, which will more than likely be held on that day.
  • So the regional elections, those of the Flemish, Walloon and Brussels parliaments, plus the French community, will also fall on that date. And if the federal government no longer falls, and no one assumes that yet, federal voting will also be held on that day.
  • It is immediately relatively late, in June, before the summer vacation of '24. That immediately reinforces the suspicion that little will be possible in those summer months, before voting for municipal elections in October '24 then. Certainly large cities, such as Antwerp, could well be "linked" to regional government formation.
  • Incidentally, Groen is now lobbying Education Minister Ben Weyts (N-VA) not to drop exams on Monday, June 10, if voting takes place the Sunday before.
  • Weyts, himself a graduate in political science after studying for no less than nine years, already knows what it means as a student to learn to plan. The question is whether he will impose a calendar on universities, colleges and high schools.

Who will be the successor: Björn Rzoska is leaving. Who will Green push forward now?

  • For insiders, it was not entirely a surprise: the group leader of Groen in the Flemish Parliament, wing. He is no longer a candidate as a member of the Flemish Parliament, and wants to return to his hometown of Lokeren. Although there he is far from sure of a place in the city council: Groen is now in opposition.
  • But Rzoska's period in national politics is over: he has completed two terms, and had to ask for an exception. But other talent is emerging in East Flanders, soon to draw the list: for example, Mieke Schauvliege from Aalter has already made a positive impression several times this legislature;
  • Moreover, Rzoska also explicitly sniffed at other political initiatives, which were discussed among fellow elected members in the informality of the Flemish Parliament: this was not appreciated in his own party.
  • Moreover, Rzoska was and is convinced that Green should be a policy party, not a whip, that only pops in opposition. That position several times put him diametrically opposed to the party chairman, long-time Meyrem Almaci. Against her he also lost presidential elections, and when she announced her retirement in 2022, Rzoska didn't step into the race either. "He was completely fused with his function, the incarnate group leader, that was no longer healthy either," one made the harsh analysis, internally about Rzoska.
  • Because even the current party leadership is (at least not openly) eager to draw in coalitions, certainly not at the Flemish level where Rzoska played his role, with N-VA.
  • Criticism from Young Green about "too old, white people" at the top made it clear that a ministerial post would never be in the cards for Rzoska anyway.
  • The question now is who will succeed him for the remainder of the year. It would "make sense" to look for people with experience, so as not to have any lead time, according to a green source. Two names stand out then: has been group leader before, as has Meyrem Almaci. Question is whether either of them makes sense to still do it: certainly Alamci sought the lee before, after her intense period as chairwoman.
  • That makes that a "new" name is not out of the question: earlier last week s name was already put forward in the press. The question is whether she can go from being a professional parliamentarian to being an all-rounder as a group leader.

Noted: Woke is a stayer, even for '24.

  • For weeks now, the book 'About Woke' by Bart De Wever (N-VA) is now at one in the top of best-selling non-fiction in Flanders. It shows that the theme is very much alive, even though a lot of parties and politicians look at the debate with horror, and warn for the .S., where it is a hot political topic.
  • Last week already showed that in Flanders too, the theme will be hard to imagine away from the electoral battle that will follow in 2024. Because apart from the outburst from "Jong Groen", about too many "old white men in the party leadership", which brought MP Dieter Van Besien (Groen) into the closet, there was also a lot of fuss about the appointment of Dalilla Hermans as "route coordinator" for the candidacy of Bruges as European Capital of Culture in 2030.
  • Hermans has to try to make Bruges the capital of culture within six years. Bruges, by the way, started this process rather late: in Brussels and Ghent, among others, this candidacy has been underway for much longer: in the capital, for example, Hadja Lahbib (MR) was the driving force before she became Minister of Foreign Affairs.
  • But in Bruges it led to fierce criticism from the opposition parties Vlaams Belang and N-VA in the city council, which in turn prompted De Standaard to run a sharp article on "the bidding" between the two Flemish-national parties over woke. "Remarkable how much drool is flowing, after Doctor Pavlov tinkled the little bell," one already at N-VA headquarters makes the analysis about that reaction in the newspapers, seeing the former AVV-VVK newspaper as the exponent of woke press.
  • Then De Wever and entered a debate on Terzake about woke, with Hermans refusing to come to the VRT studios, due to previous bad experiences with the public broadcaster. There De Wever lashed out sharply. "If you ask us whether we think that is the right person to lead a connecting culture project, I say 'no.' If someone in this studio were to say, 'Look, blacks have always been on the wrong side of history, have brought calamity and destruction everywhere, while whites have transcended themselves and can be proud,' such a person might still qualify for nothing. Substitute the terms white and black, and you would literally have a quote from Mrs. Hermans."
  • In itself, De Wever's hefty assertion can hardly be surprising: for some time now, De Wever has been touring Flemish universities with his lecture, and his book itself leaves little room for interpretation: woke, according to him, makes the break with universalism, belief in progression and equality thinking. "Every leftist should be horrified by it," he stated several times, explicitly seeking debate with the left. Not coincidentally, he even went to the Dutch TV studios of the NOS last week to engage in the debate.
  • But the left in Flanders is, for now, rejecting that duel, which is De Wever's dream: not coincidentally, even in De Zondag last weekend, Vooruit figurehead Depraetere barely addressed questions about woke. For Rousseau there is strategically "nothing to be gained", only Groen seems willing to enter the fray, but struggles with its own tone of voice: Young Groen is/was already too radical.
  • Striking at the same time: it was precisely CD&V that went on the counterattack last week. In itself not immediately a position that seems coherent, after weeks of profiling about 'la Flandre profonde' and the 'forgotten Fleming', , before, during and after the nitrogen crisis in the Flemish government. "Can you want to be BBB at the same time, as well as grab profile in the woke discussion?", a cd&v minister quietly wondered last week, after seeing Bruges mayor Dirk de Fauw (cd&v) get right behind Hermans.
  • And also cd&v minister Benjamin Dalle, himself of course with a constituency in Brussels, thus did enter the fray with De Wever. Only there, too, the main argument was "that the woke discussion distracts from issues that really matter, such as climate change or the cost of aging." It suggests that the other center parties, Socialists, Liberals and Christian Democrats, are going to struggle with that woke for some time to come.
  • On the right flank, at least as important for N-VA, after 'migration' with Theo Francken, a second front with Vlaams Belang has been opened by De Wever: with his booklet, he offers a kind of guide to his own party members not to leave the field open to the inevitable Belang.
  • There, too, a Dutch lesson plays a role in the background: the most recent elections there showed at least as much the , if not alert to the themes of the moment.
  • Vlaams Belang showed great sensitivity to this. For example, European Parliament member Tom Vandendriessche (Vlaams Belang) vehemently wanted to emphasize that his conference on woke, which he held in the European Parliament at the beginning of this month, "had already been planned since October 2022." They certainly don't want to let De Wever snatch the theme away from them, as evidenced also by the vehement reactions in Bruges of Flemish Parliament member Stefaan Sintobin (Vlaams Belang) to Hermans.

Noted (2): No, Hilde Crevits (cd&v) is not gone.

  • "By the way, reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated," writer Mark Twain once stated. Hilde , after whole analyses appeared last weeks about her possible governorship in West Flanders, about her 'exit' to a European list ánd about a possible career at the Constitutional Court, where her candidacy would be "prepared", by adjusting the rules of the game a bit.
  • It fits with earlier comments, from CD&V headquarters, that they still wanted Crevits' votes, but that after that it would be over with the West Flemish figurehead. Those unfortunate statements led to some internal rumblings at the time.
  • So for the 55-year-old from Torhout, this is the moment to make it felt that it is not over at all. "I would like the opportunity to continue the work on Welfare," she stated explicitly on the Seventh Day yesterday. And, she also hinted there, about the speculation surrounding a coalition of N-VA and Vooruit, that "we need a third partner for a majority." For Crevits, such a coalition, with socialists and N-VA and cd&v neatly in the middle, was always the preferred combination, by the way. Her ties with Vooruit, by the way, are good.
  • With her retirement from the Flemish government, speculation about an early departure went to a head. But two consecutive polls show that the most popular figurehead at cd&v . "Everyone is exactly concerned with her future? But bon, better this way than having them all write you off," was heard in her entourage.

To follow: A favorable investigation into the profit margin Bpost is capturing on the newspaper contract remains the condition for renewing the contract.

  • Last weekend, following recent revelations from , the opposition called for the current contract to be put "on hold," and for to be recovered from the public company. N-VA MP Michael Freilich calculated that that is the cost the Belgian government overpaid, due to the manipulation of the contract to bus newspapers. By the way, he wants hearings soon to question the current president of Bpost, PS'er Audrey Hanard, in the Chamber.
  • For Bpost, the consequences are severe: the audit actually shows in black and white what the investigation by the BMA, the competition watchdog, is also looking at, namely that the contract was rigged. This is evidenced by .
  • Those involved left a trail of emails and messages. Eventually, this convinced competitor PPP not to bid for the contract. Immediately, stock market analysts calculated that the fines for Bpost could be particularly high: the BMA can demand up to 10 percent of turnover as a fine.
  • The same applies to DPG Media and Mediahuis, whose turnover last year was EUR 1.8 billion and EUR 1.2 billion, respectively: the fines for them, too, could therefore easily amount to tens of millions.
  • Certainly DPG Media finds itself in difficult papers: De Tijd revealed this weekend that there was even a meeting with Christian Van Thillo, the big boss, along with finance director Piet Vroman and operations director Rudy Bertels, with the Bpost top. Officially it was about the takeover of Alidpress, in reality it was about the press conference, the newspaper writes.
  • Questions to create transparency are rebuffed by the spokesperson at DPG Media: "As you probably already know, we continue to cooperate in every way possible with the 's investigation and give them full disclosure. We are now awaiting the results of that investigation. In the meantime, we will not respond to additional questions and therefore we are not prejudging the issues."
  • A striking attitude, for those who draw the parallel with the problems that and his dealings with staff. There, there was no mention of an official judicial investigation, let alone taxpayer harm and a potential 180 million euro penalty for the company. For days DPG publications continued on that case at Studio 100, not a word about its own top people in its own media.
  • At the same time, it is heard within the Vivaldi coalition that the new press concession really won't just happen. Under pressure from the PS, which absolutely wants to keep the jobs at Bpost, that concession has already been extended. But, at the same time, they agreed to have an investigation conducted into the net margin Bpost has on that contract. Because several former Bpost executives pointed out that the net impact on the company was huge: Bpost kept on the contract, year after year, they claimed.
  • Senior sources within the government now confirm that there will be two investigations: an external auditor and the Court of Audit will conduct an audit. "Only if this shows that everything is in order will the contract be renewed," they confirm.

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