The day after another 0.5% rise to 7,370 points, the Paris Bourse (+0.1%) seems to be marking time with half an hour to go before the close.

The morning had been promising, with the CAC40 climbing back above 7,400 (the ex-zenith of June 30) and looking set for a 5/5 rise and a cumulative gain of +4%, erasing the -3.9% of the previous week... a rise now down to 3.8%.


But the 6th consecutive upward session (the best bullish run since January 11-18) seems compromised by Total Energies' -3% decline and Wall Street's hesitancy, which is erasing its initial gains (the S&P500 is back to flat, the Nasdaq down from +0.5 to +0.25%).

The surprise is that volumes (1.15 billion euros) are not only comparable to those of the previous day, but also slightly higher than the average for the previous 4 sessions on this semi-holiday July 14th: buyers seem to be on board.

The Euro-Stoxx50 gained a little over 0.3% to 4,405, but lost contact with 4,410: it will not break an all-time closing record this Friday, unless there is a last-minute surge.

US export stocks are supported by a still-weak Dollar, which is still giving up a few more fractions (the Euro is testing 1.1230, the $-Index is sinking below the 100 threshold, with a new annual low recorded at 99.60).
On the bond front, stable OATs and Bunds posted +1Pt at 3.0300% and 2.47%.
US T-Bonds rallied +4Pts to 3.80% despite a -0.2% drop in US import prices, following a 0.4% fall in May, while export prices fell by 0.9% last month, after a 1.9% drop the previous month.
The Labor Department reports that, over the last 12 months, US import prices fell by 6.1% on a reported basis (-1.4% excluding petroleum products), while export prices contracted by 12% (-12.4% excluding agricultural products) in June.

The main "fact of the day" was the publication of quarterly reports by several US stock market heavyweights, including banks JPMorgan Chase, Citi and Wells Fargo.
A bad surprise for Citigroup: second-quarter earnings down -36% (to $2.6 bn vs. $4.55 bn in Q2 2022), trading revenues down -13% and investment banking revenues down -24%.
The US bank's net income fell to $2.92 billion (€2.60 billion), or $1.33 per share, in the period from March to June, compared with $4.55 billion

On the other hand, the world's no. 1, JP-Morgan, heavily involved in the FED bailout of regional banks, posted a +67% rise in net income to $14.4 billion ($8.64 billion in Q2 2022), despite a 27% increase in provisions for credit losses to $2.9 billion.
Revenues were up 8% to $41.3 billion compared with Q1 2023.
Blackrock reported a 25% rise in earnings (to $9.28 per share), boosted by gains in its investment funds and growing ETF activity.

Note that food group PepsiCo and Delta Airlines both raised their annual targets on Thursday, on the occasion of their second-quarter releases.

The Labor Department reports that US import prices fell by 0.2% in June, following a 0.4% drop in May, while export prices fell by 0.9% last month, after a 1.9% drop the previous month.

Nevertheless, over the last 12 months, US import prices fell by 6.1% on a reported basis (-1.4% excluding petroleum products), while export prices contracted by 12% (-12.4% excluding agricultural products) in June.

'The weakness of June's US CPI seems to have given investors renewed hope that inflation could return to normal levels without the economy slowing down too much, if at all', Capital Economics also pointed out.
The latest figure of the day and of the week is surprising in its strength: US consumer confidence improved sharply in July, according to the index calculated by the University of Michigan (UMich), which came in at 72.6 in a preliminary estimate, compared with 64.4 for the previous month, well above the 66 anticipated by many economists.

Note the sharp rise in consumer "sentiment" both on their current situation (77.5 vs. 69 in June) and on their outlook (69.4 vs. 61.5 in June).

On the value front in Paris, Vallourec (+3.6%) announced that it expects gross operating income (EBITDA) and overall cash generation for the second quarter of 2023 to be higher than its previous forecasts, as well as a significant reduction in net debt.

Air France-KLM reports that it has signed a definitive agreement with Apollo Global Management for a €500 million quasi-equity financing of Air France's engineering and maintenance components (MRO) business.

Delta Air Lines has announced an order for a further 12 A220-300s, bringing the airline's total firm A220 order to 131 aircraft - 45 A220-100s and 86 A220-300s. Delta has ordered the A220 five times, and is now the world's largest A220 customer and operator.

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