The Paris Bourse began the session slightly lower on Monday morning, amid a wait-and-see attitude a few hours before the start of the U.S. primary elections and as the results season is set to continue. The CAC 40 index fell by 0.3% to 7,440 points.

After Friday's bank hors d'oeuvres, earnings season will continue on Wall Street this week, monopolizing investors' attention in the absence of any major economic events.

Fourth-quarter earnings releases are generating particular anticipation due to the high valuation of the S&P 500, which is trading at 19.5 times expected earnings, compared with a ten-year average of 17.6.

The CAC 40 index gained 0.6% last week to close in on the important 7500-point mark, a welcome technical signal after a complicated start to the year so far.

The market was supported, among other things, by the good form of the Tokyo Stock Exchange, which gained 6% last week, driven by investors' expectations of an exit from deflation in the Archipelago.

In the USA, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs will publish their accounts on Tuesday, followed the next day by Alcoa and then by oil services group SLB on Friday.

The economic agenda promises to be quieter, with the highlight being retail sales figures for December, which will gauge the health of consumer spending in the USA.

This statistic is particularly eagerly awaited, having exceeded expectations in November, which is encouraging given that household consumption accounts for two-thirds of US GDP.

Between October and November 2023, seasonally-adjusted industrial production fell by 0.3% in the eurozone and by 0.2% in the EU, according to Eurostat, following declines of 0.7% and 0.5% respectively between September and October.

In the eurozone, production of durable consumer goods fell by 2%, while production of non-durable consumer goods rose by 1.2%.

The start of the electoral process for November's presidential campaign will be another point of attention for the markets.

Iowa's Republican primary takes place today, while this small Midwestern state is currently being swept by a snowstorm.

Analysts point out that this state has a 90% white and predominantly evangelical population, making it a good barometer for the Republicans.

'Barring any last-minute surprises, all the polls indicate that Trump is in a position to win the Republican nomination', stresses Christopher Dembik, investment strategy advisor at Pictet AM.

Uncertainty surrounding the timing of the Fed's first rate cut could also continue to generate volatility, while the latest inflation data argue for a delay.

Markets are currently banking on a 70% chance of a first easing in March, followed by two further rate cuts in May and June, expectations which some analysts consider too aggressive.

Only the next Federal Reserve meeting, scheduled for the end of the month, will provide some visibility on the future evolution of monetary policy.

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