The "3 Witches" session is in gray mode, with the CAC40 slowly slipping into negative territory (-0.35% to 7,375, i.e. around -1% weekly).
The Paris Bourse got off to a good start in this technical session, with a gain of +0.5% on Friday morning, and a test of the 7.445.

The CAC40 looked set to finish unchanged at the end of a week marked by a spectacular reversal in expectations of monetary easing favoured by investors since the end of November. The CAC40 index fell back below 7,390pts (breaking out of the 7,400/7,470 corridor which has been in place since January 3) and once again seems to be validating a bearish scenario.
But it is the only one to be in the red for the time being, since the E-Stoxx50 remains stable at 4,455 and has a 0.3% margin over its short-term support.
Wall Street reopens on a slightly positive note: the Nasdaq-100 (+0.5%) beats a new all-time record above 17,060, the S&P500 gains +0.2% (stable on the week) and comes within 10pts of the 4,800 mark.800.
It's the ideal scenario for these '3 Witches' to conclude at Wall Street's zenith, with the Nasdaq and S&P500 even gaining between +1.5% and +2% compared with the '4 Witches' of December 15.

The resilience of the market is truly remarkable, as since the start of the week, the world's leading monetary policymakers have taken turns to push back the market's timetable on the dates of the first rate cuts and the extent of the easing to be expected.

On Wednesday, market participants had to digest a hawkish speech by Christine Lagarde, who suggested that a rate cut would be "likely" in June.


These statements led to a sharp downward revision of rate expectations, particularly across the Atlantic where, according to CME's FedWatch barometer, traders now estimate that only 53.8% of them expect a rate cut in March, compared with 76.9% a week ago.

All these doubts didn't prevent the US equity markets from returning to the top yesterday, with a 0.5% rise for the Dow Jones and a 1.5% gain for the Nasdaq-100, which broke a double all-time record, both intraday and at the close (in contact with 17,000), boosted by the strength of semiconductor manufacturers (+3.3% for the SOXX index on Thursday evening).

This is simply a classic technical repositioning after the negative sessions at the start of the week", moderates one analyst.

Bond markets have fallen sharply this week, and there's no sign of a rebound this Friday: the US '10-yr' is still down +1.1Pt at 4.16500%, or +25Pts over the past week, and the worst weekly performer since mid-October 2023, the '2-yr' remains stuck at 4.37%, or almost +30Pts over the week.
In Europe, Bunds and OATs are stuck on their highest levels of the week at 2.31% and 2.83% respectively.

We may see a small technical rebound with the publication of new US economic indicators if they are not too robust: old home sales and the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index.
On the currency front, the Dollar loses back what it had gained the previous day, i.e. -0.1% to 103.40.
The Euro remains unchanged at $1.0875, while oil per barrel climbs 0.4% to $79.3 in London.
On the earnings front, investors will take note of the financial statements of oil and gas group SLB and insurer Travelers, before the season gets into full swing next week with the releases of numerous heavyweights such as J&J, Netflix, Tesla and Intel.

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