The Paris stock market ended the first session of the week with a modest gain of 0.44%, at 6,825 points, helped by performances from Sanofi (+3.3%), Teleperformance (+3%) and Dassault Systèmes (+2.3%), despite a geopolitical context in the Middle East that remains irresistible.

The Israeli army has announced its first armored incursions into Gaza City, and reports of firing on another front, on the Lebanese border... The only cause for relief: Iran seems (for the time being) to be holding back.

While the earnings season entered its most intense phase last week, this week promises to be another busy one for corporate quarterly results, culminating in Apple's results this Thursday evening.

At this stage, almost half of the S&P 500 companies have already published their quarterly results, and 78% of them have exceeded consensus (a classic ratio), according to data published by FactSet.

The week will also be punctuated by the meeting of the US Federal Reserve (verdict Wednesday at 8pm), which is expected to confirm its pause on rates in view of the confirmed slowdown in inflation (despite very high levels of consumption and a very resilient labor market).

The monetary policy decisions of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) tomorrow and the Bank of England (BoE) on Thursday will also be closely watched by the markets.

On the statistics front, Germany posted a -0.1% decline in Q3 GDP (Destatis CVS-CJO data) and the annual inflation rate stood at +3.8% in October 2023, its lowest level since August 2021 (also +3.8%) but down from 4.5% in September, according to the preliminary estimate from the Federal Statistics Office.

Destatis also indicates that consumer prices should remain unchanged compared with September.
In Spain, inflation came in at +3.5% in October.

The highlight of the week will be the US employment figures, excluding the agricultural sector, for the month of October, due out on Friday at 2:30 pm.

Economists expect only 190,000 new jobs to have been created last month, a marked slowdown on September's 336,000, due to the impact of the strike launched by the UAW union (an agreement has just been signed by Ford and GM which puts an end to the partial paralysis of production lines).

Investors are also keeping a close eye on bonds, where T-Bonds are hovering around 4.895% (+5pts) after breaking through 5% last week, a level not seen since 2007.

The German Bund is hovering around 2.8330% (stable) and the OAT is stagnating at 3.437% (-1Pt). Italian BTPs eased sharply (-7Pts) to 4.738%.

Oil prices extended last week's decline due to a less favorable outlook with the expected slowdown in global growth. Brent crude fell by 2.7% to $88 a barrel, WTI by -2.8% to $82.8 on the NYMEX (its October 6 low, tested on the eve of the October 7 Hamas massacre)... but the absence of further tensions in the Middle East also helped to relieve investors.
On the FOREX, the dollar fell back by -0.45% against the major currencies, while the euro rallied by +0.5% to $1.0620/euro.

In French company news, Eutelsat announced on Friday evening that it had signed a new agreement with PSSI Global Services to renew and extend its partnership for capacity on board its Eutelsat 113 West A satellite.

ArcelorMittal announced on Saturday that a tragic accident had occurred at its Kostenco coal mine in Kazakhstan, leaving 25 employees confirmed dead and 21 still missing.
The steel group also confirmed that it had entered into discussions with the Kazakh government regarding the future of ArcelorMittal Temirtau, and had recently signed a preliminary agreement for a transaction that will transfer ownership to the state: nationalization should be effective shortly, an agreement having been confirmed this morning.

After 44 days on strike, the United Auto Workers (UAW) announced on Saturday that it had reached an agreement in principle with Stellantis, enabling the owner of the Chrysler and Jeep brands to gain ground on the stock market on Monday.

Finally, Thales Alenia Space, a joint venture between Thales (67%) and Leonardo (33%), has announced that it has entered into a partnership with Space Solar to continue their collaboration on the first commercial system for producing solar energy in orbit.

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