By Kirk Maltais
--Wheat for September delivery rose 2.2% to $6.60 1/2 a bushel, on the Chicago Board of Trade on Tuesday, with heavy rains in wheat-growing areas leading to delays of the winter wheat harvest.
--Soybeans for November delivery rose 1.1% to $13.60 1/4 a bushel.
--Corn for December delivery rose 0.4% to $5.01 1/2 a bushel.
HIGHLIGHTS
Water Logged: Stress on winter wheat crops in the Southern Plains was the main factor supporting wheat futures today. "Heavy rains in Oklahoma, Nebraska and Kansas have not only delayed the harvest and caused an outbreak of disease, but the accompanying storms with hail and high winds have apparently damaged some soon to be harvested hard red winter wheat," said Joel Karlin of Ocean State Research.
Good, Not Great: Yesterday's crop progress report from the USDA showed some upticks in the amount of U.S. row crop acreage in good or excellent condition - but not enough to make traders think that crops are on their way to recovery. Corn was the leader, with the amount of acres in good or excellent condition rising by 4 points to 55%. Soybeans rose by one point to 51% good or excellent, and winter wheat was unchanged at 40% good or excellent. Spring wheat fell 1 point to 47%. Traders stay tentative ahead of tomorrow's WASDE report, with future weather uncertain.
INSIGHT
Growing Interest: Grain traders have increased their exposure to agricultural futures ahead of tomorrow's WASDE report - with the big changes made by the USDA in last month's planted acreage report amplifying trader interest. Through July 7, open interest in agriculture was roughly $292.9 billion, up 1% from the previous week, said JPMorgan Global Commodities Research in a note. This pushes agricultural open interest off of year-lows seen last week, with traders questioning what changes the USDA may make. "It is unclear whether the USDA will revise U.S. yields in this installment or wait for the traditional on field observations in August," said the firm.
Behind Pace: Corn futures may be in for a surge in upcoming sessions as Brazil - the main competitor to U.S. grain exports - experiences a dampened crop harvest. Only 27% of the country's second-crop corn harvest has been completed, which is down 14 points from last year's pace, said Brazilian agricultural consultancy AgRural.
Breaking Records: The amount of wheat being exported out of Russia in July could land anywhere from 3.7 million metric tons to 4.1 million tons, trumping the monthly average of 2.8 million tons, according to research firm SovEcon. This July may break the record for the month, which was set in 2018 at 3.8 million tons. Driving the strong demand is favorable pricing for Russian wheat, which is going for $20 a ton less than wheat from France, according to SovEcon. Plentiful Russian wheat may grow in importance as the supply of wheat in competing countries like the U.S. grows thinner amid adverse weather conditions.
AHEAD
--The EIA will release its weekly ethanol production and stocks report at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.
--The USDA will release its world supply and demand estimates report at noon ET Wednesday.
--Conagra Brands will release its fiscal 4Q earnings report at 7:30 a.m. ET Thursday
--The USDA will release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. ET Thursday.
Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
07-11-23 1554ET
