By Kirk Maltais


-Wheat for May delivery fell 2.2% to $5.51 3/4 a bushel, on the Chicago Board of Trade on Tuesday, with Russian exports continuing to pressure global wheat prices down.

-Corn for May delivery fell 1% to $4.25 3/4 a bushel.

-Soybeans for May delivery fell 0.5% to $11.48 3/4 a bushel.


HIGHLIGHTS


Lagging Pace: Lower export estimates were the main pressure source for wheat, ahead of Friday's WASDE report that's expected to cut U.S. estimates while confirming a higher outlook for exports out of competing nations like Russia and Ukraine. "Some are wondering if the USDA may cut its 725 million bushels export estimate on Friday," said Naomi Blohm of Total Farm Marketing in a note.

Retracing Steps: The most-active CBOT wheat contract fell below $5.50 a bushel today--the first time in just over 5 months the contract has dropped that low. Tough export competition is the main issue, but also impacting wheat was a better outlook for weather in the U.S. and elsewhere that indicate better crops globally and will likely keep prices cheap, said Joel Karlin of Ocean State Research.


INSIGHT


Open Question: In the longer-term, traders are expecting prices to continue on a recent uptrend that started late last month. One reason is a question about Brazil's weather. "There is still uncertainty in the market about the weather in central Brazil with little rain in the forecast," said Tomm Pfitzenmaier of Summit Commodity Brokerage in a note. "That is not a big problem at this moment, but will become critical after mid-March when their crop will begin pollinating." This concern is resulting in a risk premium being added to futures, although that was not evident today.

Friday Fate: USDA South American figures have been consistently higher than those forecast by groups like Conab, leading traders to anticipate the USDA making a big cut in this week's report. Analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal are expecting Brazilian corn production to fall 1.6 million metric tons, with soybean production down 3.5 million tons. The ultimate impact the report may have on CBOT futures may prove to be minimal, said Doug Bergman of RCM Alternatives in a note. "The March USDA report is not typically a big market mover as more focus goes into the stocks and planting intentions report at the end of the month," he said.

It's Not All Bad: Farmer attitudes surrounding the upcoming growing year is improving, according to the latest farmer sentiment survey posted by the partnership of Purdue University and the CME Group. Farmers appear less worried about higher interest rates, and anticipate a better financial future. However, some farmers are still concerned about the financial performance of their farms, amid both high input costs and lower crop prices.


AHEAD


-The EIA will release its weekly ethanol production and stocks report at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.

-The USDA will release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. ET Thursday.

-The USDA will release its monthly World Supply and Demand Estimates report at noon ET Friday.

-The CFTC will release its weekly Commitment of Traders report at 3:30 p.m. ET Friday.


Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

03-05-24 1508ET