(Alliance News) - Milan opened Thursday's session higher, bringing the point bar to the 34,300 area. The day's anticipation is all for the ECB, although trading floors are not expecting any surprises on rates and are instead waiting for the words of number one Lagarde to get some additional clues on the path of the cost of money.

"Markets expect a wait-and-see ECB at tomorrow's meeting. Instead, the probability of a decline in September is estimated at 75 percent," Francesco Castelli, head of Fixed Income at Banor Capital, told Alliance News exclusively.

According to the expert, there are "three circumstances that could favor this solution: in June, Lagarde made it clear that the easing path would not be linear - "bumpy road." Moreover, the June downturn had also coincided with the release of updated economic projections, which happens every two meetings."

"Postponing everything until September would make a lot of sense because Lagarde, once again, may need updated data before finding consensus between 'hawks' and 'doves,'" Castelli added.

"Third, the probability of a Fed downturn has greatly increased in recent weeks. While not explicitly admitting it, the ECB knows that a solo downturn risks depressing the euro, importing inflation," he concluded.

The FTSE Mib, thus, is rising 0.1 percent to 34,400 points.

Among the smaller listings last night, the Mid-Cap is giving up 0.1 percent to 48,427.09, the Small-Cap is in the green by 0.1 percent to 29,426.91, and Italy Growth is just below par at 8,119.67.

In Europe, London's FTSE 100 is advancing 0.8 percent, Paris' CAC 40 is up 0.1 percent, and Frankfurt's DAX 40 is giving up 0.1 percent.

On the Mib, good start for Eni, which moves ahead 1.5% to EUR14.34 per share. Of note, the company and Kazakhstan's state-owned KazMunayGas - KMG announced Tuesday the start of construction of a 250 MW renewable sources and gas hybrid power plant at Zhanaozen in Kazakhstan's Mangystau region.

Strength also on Iveco, which advances 1.2% to EUR11.40 per share, rearing its head again after two bearish sessions.

Banco BPM -- up 0.4 percent -- announced Wednesday the final results of the offer to repurchase its EUR400.0 million perpetual bond. At the expiration of the offer, the total nominal amount of existing securities was EUR179.5 million, and Banco BPM made the repurchase at the same time as issuing a new EUR400.0 million euro-denominated fixed-rate reset Additional Tier 1 perpetual bond.

Stellantis sales -- up 1.1 percent -- in June rose slightly in Europe, underperforming the European market, where registrations grew 4.3 percent year-on-year to nearly 1.1 million units. As data from ACEA, the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association, showed Thursday, the merged giant of PSA Groupe and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles posted a 0.4 percent increase over June 2023, but market share fell to 17.3 percent in June from 18.0 percent a year earlier.

In contrast, Nexi advanced 0.3 percent to EUR5.89 per share. Dutsche Bank raised its target price to EUR6.50 from EUR5.80, with a "hold" recommendation.

Leonardo, however, is moving just below par, with price at EUR22.80 per share. Worth mentioning that on the stock Goldman Sachs raised the target price to EUR23.50 from EUR23.80 previously.

On the Mid-Cap, strength on Webuild, which is up 2.9 percent to EUR2.22 per share, following eve's 1.5 percent decline.

For Fincantieri, on the other hand, the rise is 1.5 percent, in its third bullish session.

Ascopiave -- in the green by 0.2 percent -- reported Wednesday that between July 10 and 16 it bought 36,524 shares at an average price of EUR2.3835 for a total value of EUR87,056.75. As a result of these purchases, Ascopiave holds 17.9 million shares or 7.7 percent of the share capital.

At the back of the pack, among the many bearers, Piovan is giving up 1.2 percent, closing the listing at EUR12.25 and following up on the eve's 0.4 percent decline.

On the Small-Cap, Giglio Group - once again bullish in double digits before going to auction - on Wednesday announced the launch of OMNIA. The new advanced technology platform, based on artificial intelligence, represents the innovative merger and evolution of Giglio Group's two proprietary platforms Flex and Nimbus, and offers an integrated end-to-end approach to managing both the physical and online buying process, from the initial order stage to final delivery.

Conafi, on the other hand, advances 8.2 percent. The stock-which has been missing the ex-dividend since 2021-bounces after three sessions closed among the bearish.

Good buying also on Fiera Milano, which moves up 2.2 percent heading for its third bullish daily candle. The stock, since the beginning of 2024, has increased its market cap by more than 49 percent.

Avio, on the other hand, is giving up 1.4 percent after two sessions ended in the green.

On Italy Growth, EdiliziAcrobatica -- ahead 8.3 percent before going into a volatility auction -- reported Thursday that the number of contracts signed in the first half of the year rose 40 percent to 16,107 from 11,500 in the same period of 2023. The number of customers also increased by nearly 59 percent from June 30, 2023.

Askoll Eva advances 3.7 percent, after two sessions closed in ross at EUR0.227. The stock on the MarketScreenr platform expresses a target price of EUR0.28, thus being underpriced by about 28%.

Circle--flat at EUR7.82--reported Thursday that Magellan Circle Italia, a company part of the Circle group and a leader in transport, mobility, logistics, environmental and circular economy consulting, has signed a two-year contract worth about EUR140,000 with a client in the port sector for the technical and financial management of six European projects.

Prisms, also unchanged at EUR0.069, reported-between July 9 and July 15-it received payments on account of future capital increase of more than EUR300,000, including EUR150,000 from Tender Capital and the remainder from other qualified investors.

In the U.S. on Wednesday, Wall Street closed lower: the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.6 percent, but the S&P 500 fell 1.4 percent and the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.8 percent.

In Asia, the Nikkei gave up 2.4 percent, the Shanghai Composite picked up 0.5 percent, and the Hang Seng is picking up 0.4 percent.

Among currencies, the euro changed hands to USD1.0929 from USD1.0930 in Wednesday's European stock close while the pound is worth USD1.3000 against USD1.3007 last night.

Among commodities, Brent crude trades at USD85.58 per barrel from USD84.83 per barrel at Wednesday's close. Gold, on the other hand, trades at USD2,472.31 an ounce from USD2,470.984 an ounce Tuesday night.

Thursday's calendar sees as its main event the ECB communication at 1415 CEST, followed half an hour later by Christine Lagarde's lecture.

In the morning, from the Eurozone, focus on construction sector output, due out at 1100 CEST, while in the US, at 1430 CEST, last week's jobless claims data will be known.

Gas stocks numbers in the States will be released at 1630 CEST while the day will close with the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, released at 2230 CEST.

Among the companies in the stock market, results from Arterra Bioscience, Dotstay, Eligo and Sesa are expected.

By Maurizio Carta, Alliance News reporter

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