PERNOD RICARD : Oddo BHF slightly reduces its target
June 26, 2024 at 05:26 am
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Oddo BHF maintains its 'neutral' rating on Pernod Ricard shares, with a price target lowered from €150 to €145.
The broker highlights the fact that the return to growth in the US and China is regularly postponed.
This theme is crucial to triggering a recovery at group level and renewed market interest in the stock, hence our cautious attitude despite our conviction in the quality of its fundamentals", says Oddo BHF, which does not expect a return to growth in the US (20% of group sales) before the end of the year.
Oddo BHF therefore considers the consensus forecast for 24/25 organic sales growth (+4.3%) to be "optimistic", and is forecasting +3.6%, with a gradual recovery over the course of the year.
We consider it unlikely that a rerating will take place until this consensus adjustment has been made, and especially as long as visibility on China and the US remains weak in the short term", concludes the broker.
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Pernod Ricard is the world's No. 2 in the production and marketing of Premium and Prestige spirits and wines. Net sales break down by family of products as follows:
- spirits and champagnes of strategic international brands (63.4%): Absolut (12.7 million cases sold in 2022/23), Jameson (10.7 million), Ballantine's (8.8 million), Chivas Regal (5.1 million), Malibu (4.7 million), Ricard (4.4 million), Havana Club (4.3 million), Beefeater (3.7 million), Martell (2.4 million), The Glenlivet (1.6 million), Mumm (0.6 million), Royal Salute (0.3 million) and Perrier-Jouët (0.3 million);
- local strategic brands' spirits (17.7%): Seagram's, Kahlua, Olmeca, Seagram's Gin, Ramazzotti, Imperial, Pastis 51 and Clan Campbell brands, etc.;
- speciality brand's craft spirits (6.2%): Italicus, Lillet, Pernod, Suze, Augier, Malfy, Jefferson's, Powers and Redbreast brands, etc.;
- strategic wines (3.9%): Jacob's Creek, Kenwood, Brancott Estate, Campo Viejo, Church Road, George, St Hugo, Stoneleigh, Ysios and Wyndham brands;
- other (8.8%).
At the end of June 2023, the group has 96 production sites worldwide.
Net sales are distributed geographically as follows: Europe (28.5%), Americas (28.7%) and other (42.8%).
PERNOD RICARD 
