Nutrien : Q1 2024 Earnings Release

News Release

NYSE, TSX: NTR

May 8, 2024 - all amounts are in US dollars except as otherwise noted

Nutrien Reports First Quarter 2024 Results

• First quarter results supported by strong grower demand for crop inputs, increased potash shipments to key global markets, higher fertilizer operating rates and lower costs.
• Maintaining full-year 2024 Retail adjusted EBITDA and fertilizer sales volume guidance ranges.

SASKATOON, Saskatchewan - Nutrien Ltd. (TSX and NYSE: NTR) announced today its first quarter 2024 results, with net earnings of $165 million ($0.32 diluted net earnings per share). First quarter 2024 adjusted EBITDA1 was $1.1 billion and adjusted net earnings per share1 was $0.46.

"We continued to see strong crop input demand, a normalization of product margins for our North American Retail business and increased global potash shipments in the first quarter. Our results highlighted the capabilities of our flexible, low-cost production assets and downstream distribution network to efficiently supply our customers' needs," commented Ken Seitz, Nutrien's President and CEO.

"We expect growth in Retail earnings and fertilizer sales volumes compared to the prior year and have maintained our 2024 guidance ranges. Our focus remains on strengthening our capability to serve growers and enhancing our core businesses to improve the quality of our earnings and free cash flow," added Mr. Seitz.

Highlights2:

• Generated net earnings of $165 million and adjusted EBITDA of $1.1 billion in the first quarter of 2024, down from the same period in 2023 primarily due to lower net fertilizer selling prices. This was partially offset by increased Retail earnings, higher fertilizer sales volumes and lower natural gas costs.
• Nutrien Ag Solutions ("Retail") adjusted EBITDA increased to $77 million in the first quarter of 2024 primarily due to higher gross margin for crop nutrients and crop protection products supported by strong grower demand and a normalization of product margins in North America.
• Potash adjusted EBITDA declined to $530 million in the first quarter of 2024 due to lower net selling prices, which more than offset higher sales volumes. We increased potash production, supported by continued advancement of mine automation initiatives, and reduced our controllable cash cost of product manufactured per tonne.
• Nitrogen adjusted EBITDA declined to $464 million in the first quarter of 2024 due to lower net selling prices for all major nitrogen products, which more than offset higher sales volumes and lower natural gas costs. Ammonia production increased in the first quarter, driven by higher utilization rates in Trinidad.
• Initiated a process to divest our Retail assets in Argentina, Chile, and Uruguay to provide greater focus on our core Retail businesses and enhance the quality of earnings and free cash flow.

1. This is a non-GAAP financial measure. See the "Non-GAAP Financial Measures" section.
2. Our discussion of highlights set out on this page is a comparison of the results for the three months ended March 31, 2024 to the results for the three months ended March 31, 2023, unless otherwise noted.

1

Management's Discussion and Analysis

The following management's discussion and analysis ("MD&A") is the responsibility of management and is dated as of May 8, 2024. The Board of Directors ("Board") of Nutrien carries out its responsibility for review of this disclosure principally through its Audit Committee, composed entirely of independent directors. The Audit Committee reviews and, prior to its publication, approves this disclosure pursuant to the authority delegated to it by the Board. The term "Nutrien" refers to Nutrien Ltd. and the terms "we", "us", "our", "Nutrien" and "the Company" refer to Nutrien and, as applicable, Nutrien and its direct and indirect subsidiaries on a consolidated basis. Additional information relating to Nutrien (which, except as otherwise noted, is not incorporated by reference herein), including our annual report dated February 22, 2024 ("2023 Annual Report"), which includes our annual audited consolidated financial statements and MD&A, and our annual information form dated February 22, 2024, each for the year ended December 31, 2023, can be found on SEDAR+ at www.sedarplus.ca and on EDGAR at www.sec.gov. No update is provided to the disclosure in our 2023 annual MD&A except for material information since the date of our annual MD&A. The Company is a foreign private issuer under the rules and regulations of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC").

This MD&A is based on and should be read in conjunction with the Company's unaudited interim condensed consolidated financial statements as at and for the three months ended March 31, 2024 ("interim financial statements") based on International Financial Reporting Standards ("IFRS") as issued by the International Accounting Standards Board and prepared in accordance with International Accounting Standard ("IAS") 34 "Interim Financial Reporting", unless otherwise noted. This MD&A contains certain non-GAAP financial measures and ratios and forward-looking statements, which are described in the "Non-GAAP Financial Measures" and the "Forward-Looking Statements" sections, respectively.

Market Outlook and Guidance

Agriculture and Retail Markets

• We expect US corn plantings of approximately 90 million acres in 2024 and soybean plantings of approximately 87 million acres. US planting progress is in line with historical average levels and fertilizer application rates have been strong. Wet weather has recently delayed planting progress and fertilizer application in the Corn Belt.
• Brazilian growers are finalizing their soybean harvest, and favorable weather conditions resulted in safrinha corn planted area exceeding initial expectations. Soybean margins are expected to improve from the compressed levels in 2023 and support growth in planted acreage and crop input demand in the second half of 2024.
• Australian soil moisture conditions vary regionally but remain supportive for this upcoming growing season and the Indian monsoon is projected to produce average to above-average precipitation, supporting yield potential and grower demand for crop inputs.

Crop Nutrient Markets

• Global potash supply and demand has been relatively balanced as increased shipments have been required to meet historically strong demand in the first quarter. We have maintained our 2024 full-year potash shipment forecast of 68 to 71 million tonnes.
• We are seeing strong potash demand in North America for the spring application season as channel inventories were tight to start 2024. Potash demand in Southeast Asia has been supported by lower inventory levels compared to the prior year and favorable economics for key crops such as oil palm and rice. China's potash imports remained strong in the first quarter of 2024 supported by a step-change in domestic consumption but are expected to decline on a full-year basis compared to the record levels in 2023.
• Global nitrogen markets have fluctuated in 2024 driven by seasonal buying patterns, production outages and uncertainty over Chinese urea export restrictions and India's urea import requirements. The US nitrogen supply and demand balance remains relatively tight, in particular for ammonia and UAN, with net nitrogen imports down 21 percent on a fertilizer year basis compared to the historical average.
• Phosphate fertilizer prices remained firm through the first quarter of 2024 due to strong demand in the Northern Hemisphere, supportive Indian DAP purchases, Chinese export restrictions and production outages. Prices have softened in the second quarter driven primarily by lower seasonal demand.

2

Financial and Operational Guidance

• We are maintaining our Retail adjusted EBITDA and fertilizer sales volume guidance ranges as market fundamentals and operational performance have been in line with our previous expectations.
• Retail adjusted EBITDA guidance of $1.65 to $1.85 billion reflects expectations for increased crop nutrient sales volumes and margins for our North American business in the first half of 2024 and improved crop input margins in Brazil during the second half of the year. Guidance assumes a full year of earnings from our Retail assets in Argentina, Chile and Uruguay.
• Potash sales volumes guidance of 13.0 to 13.8 million tonnes assumes a more even split between first and second half volumes compared to the prior year. Nitrogen sales volumes guidance of 10.6 to 11.2 million tonnes assumes higher operating rates at our North American and Trinidad plants and growth in sales of upgraded products such as urea and nitrogen solutions.
• Effective tax rate on adjusted earnings guidance was lowered primarily due to a change to our expected geographic mix of earnings.

All guidance numbers, including those noted above are outlined in the table below. Refer to page 65 of Nutrien's 2023 Annual Report for related assumptions and sensitivities.

	2024 Guidance Ranges 1 as of
	May 8, 2024		February 21, 2024
(billions of US dollars, except as otherwise noted)	Low	High	Low	High
Retail adjusted EBITDA	1.65	1.85	1.65	1.85
Potash sales volumes (million tonnes) 2	13.0	13.8	13.0	13.8
Nitrogen sales volumes (million tonnes) 2	10.6	11.2	10.6	11.2
Phosphate sales volumes (million tonnes) 2	2.6	2.8	2.6	2.8
Depreciation and amortization	2.2	2.3	2.2	2.3
Finance costs	0.75	0.85	0.75	0.85
Effective tax rate on adjusted earnings (%)	23.0	25.0	24.0	26.0
Capital expenditures 3	2.2	2.3	2.2	2.3

1 See the "Forward-Looking Statements" section.

2 Manufactured product only.

3 Comprised of sustaining capital expenditures, investing capital expenditures and mine development and pre-stripping capital expenditures which are supplementary financial measures. See the "Other Financial Measures" section.

3

Consolidated Results

	Three Months Ended March 31
(millions of US dollars, except as otherwise noted)	2024	2023	% Change
Sales	5,389	6,107	(12)
Gross margin	1,537	1,913	(20)
Expenses	1,118	974	15
Net earnings	165	576	(71)
Adjusted EBITDA 1	1,055	1,421	(26)
Diluted net earnings per share	0.32	1.14	(72)
Adjusted net earnings per share 1	0.46	1.11	(59)

1 This is a non-GAAP financial measure. See the "Non-GAAP Financial Measures" section.

Net earnings and adjusted EBITDA decreased in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, primarily due to lower net fertilizer selling prices. This was partially offset by increased Retail earnings, higher fertilizer sales volumes and lower natural gas costs. Expenses increased mainly due to higher foreign exchange losses primarily from our Retail - South America region in the first quarter of 2024 and an $80 million gain recognized in the first quarter of 2023 due to post-retirement benefit plan amendments.

Segment Results

Our discussion of segment results set out on the following pages is a comparison of the results for the three months ended March 31, 2024 to the results for the three months ended March 31, 2023, unless otherwise noted.

Nutrien Ag Solutions ("Retail")

	Three Months Ended March 31
(millions of US dollars, except as otherwise noted)	2024	2023	% Change
Sales	3,308	3,422	(3)
Cost of goods sold	2,561	2,807	(9)
Gross margin	747	615	21
Adjusted EBITDA 1	77	(34)	n/m

1 See Note 2 to the interim financial statements.

• Retail adjusted EBITDA increased in the first quarter of 2024 primarily due to higher gross margin for crop nutrients and crop protection products supported by strong grower demand and a normalization of product margins in North America. Gross margin of our proprietary products increased in the first quarter driven primarily by our crop nutritional and biostimulant product lines, as we continued to expand our differentiated product offering and manufacturing capacity.

4

	Three Months Ended March 31
	Sales			Gross Margin
(millions of US dollars)	2024		2023		2024		2023
Crop nutrients	1,309		1,335		254		141
Crop protection products	1,114		1,154		234		208
Seed	485		507		59		72
Services and other	156		148		125		118
Merchandise	200		246		31		44
Nutrien Financial	66		57		66		57
Nutrien Financial elimination	(22)		(25)	(22)		(25)
Total	3,308		3,422		747		615

• Crop nutrients sales decreased in the first quarter of 2024 due to lower selling prices, partially offset by higher sales volumes across all regions. Gross margin increased in the first quarter due to higher per-tonne margins and higher sales volumes resulting from a more typical start to spring applications in the US compared to 2023.
• Crop protection products sales were lower in the first quarter of 2024 primarily due to lower selling prices. Gross margin increased compared to the first quarter of 2023, which was impacted by the sell through of higher cost inventory.
• Seed sales and gross margin decreased in the first quarter of 2024 primarily due to lower sales volumes and competitive market prices in the US, as growers delayed crop selection decisions in some regions.
• Nutrien Financial sales and gross margin increased in the first quarter of 2024 due to higher financing offering rates and expanded program participation from growers in the US and Australia.

Supplemental Data		Three Months Ended March 31
	Gross Margin	% of Product Line 1
(millions of US dollars, except as otherwise noted)	2024	2023		2024		2023
Proprietary products
Crop nutrients	70	54		28		38
Crop protection products	83	74		36		36
Seed	17	30		29		42
Merchandise	3	3		9		6
Total	173	161		23		26

1 Represents percentage of proprietary product margins over total product line gross margin.

	Sales Volumes	Gross Margin / Tonne
	(tonnes - thousands)	(US dollars)
	2024	2023		2024	2023
Crop nutrients
North America	1,464	1,195		139	94
International	918	845		55	35
Total	2,382	2,040		106	69

(percentages)	March 31, 2024	December 31, 2023
Financial performance measures 1, 2
	Cash operating coverage ratio	66	68
	Adjusted average working capital to sales	19	19
	Adjusted average working capital to sales excluding Nutrien Financial	nil	1
	Nutrien Financial adjusted net interest margin	5.2	5.2
1	Rolling four quarters.
2	These are non-GAAP financial measures. See the "Non-GAAP Financial Measures" section.

5

Potash

	Three Months Ended March 31
(millions of US dollars, except as otherwise noted)	2024	2023	% Change
Net sales	813	1,002	(19)
Cost of goods sold	358	305	17
Gross margin	455	697	(35)
Adjusted EBITDA 1	530	676	(22)

1 See Note 2 to the interim financial statements.

• Potash adjusted EBITDA declined in the first quarter of 2024 due to lower net selling prices, which more than offset higher sales volumes. We increased potash production in the first quarter, supported by continued advancement of mine automation initiatives, which helped to meet customer demand and reduced our controllable cash cost of product manufactured1 to $56 per tonne.

	Three Months Ended
Manufactured product	March 31
($ / tonne, except as otherwise noted)	2024		2023
Sales volumes (tonnes - thousands)
North America	1,307		854
Offshore	2,106		1,782
Total sales volumes	3,413		2,636
Net selling price
North America	310		401
Offshore	193		370
Average selling price	238		380
Cost of goods sold	105		115
Gross margin	133		265
Depreciation and amortization	43		37
Gross margin excluding depreciation and amortization 1	176		302

1 This is a non-GAAP financial measure. See the "Non-GAAP Financial Measures" section.

• Sales volumes increased in North America in the first quarter of 2024 due to low channel inventory and more normal buying behaviors compared to the same period in 2023. Offshore sales volumes were higher compared to the same period in the prior year driven by increased demand in major offshore markets.
• Net selling price per tonne decreased in the first quarter of 2024 due to a decline in benchmark prices compared to the strong prices in the first quarter of 2023.
• Cost of goods sold per tonne decreased in the first quarter of 2024 mainly due to higher production volumes and lower royalties.

Supplemental Data	Three Months Ended
	March 31
	2024		2023
Production volumes (tonnes - thousands)	3,565		3,088
Potash controllable cash cost of product manufactured per tonne 1	56		62
Canpotex sales by market (percentage of sales volumes)
Latin America	32		35
Other Asian markets 2	33		38
China	20		12
India	3		2
Other markets	12		13
Total	100		100

1. This is a non-GAAP financial measure. See the "Non-GAAP Financial Measures" section.
2. All Asian markets except China and India.

6

Nitrogen

	Three Months Ended March 31
(millions of US dollars, except as otherwise noted)	2024	2023	% Change
Net sales	911	1,312	(31)
Cost of goods sold	604	771	(22)
Gross margin	307	541	(43)
Adjusted EBITDA 1	464	676	(31)

1 See Note 2 to the interim financial statements.

• Nitrogen adjusted EBITDA declined in the first quarter of 2024 due to lower net selling prices for all major nitrogen products, which more than offset higher sales volumes and lower natural gas costs. Ammonia production increased in the first quarter supporting product mix optimization and increased downstream urea and UAN production.

	Three Months Ended
Manufactured product	March 31
($ / tonne, except as otherwise noted)	2024		2023
Sales volumes (tonnes - thousands)
Ammonia	517		534
Urea and ESN®	775		747
Solutions, nitrates and sulfates	1,215		1,076
Total sales volumes	2,507		2,357
Net selling price
Ammonia	403		721
Urea and ESN®	432		617
Solutions, nitrates and sulfates	226		310
Average net selling price	326		500
Cost of goods sold	207		275
Gross margin	119		225
Depreciation and amortization	54		57
Gross margin excluding depreciation and amortization 1	173		282

1 This is a non-GAAP financial measure. See the "Non-GAAP Financial Measures" section.

• Sales volumes were higher in the first quarter of 2024 primarily due to higher urea and UAN production and strong fertilizer demand, partially offset by lower ammonia sales due to product mix optimization.
• Net selling price per tonne was lower in the first quarter of 2024 for all major nitrogen products primarily due to weaker benchmark prices resulting from lower energy prices in key nitrogen producing regions.
• Cost of goods sold per tonne decreased in the first quarter of 2024 mainly due to lower natural gas costs.

	Three Months Ended
Supplemental Data	March 31
	2024		2023
Sales volumes (tonnes - thousands)
Fertilizer	1,423		1,248
Industrial and feed	1,084		1,109
Production volumes (tonnes - thousands)
Ammonia production - total 1	1,452		1,431
Ammonia production - adjusted 1, 2	1,018		1,037
Ammonia operating rate (%) 2	92		95
Natural gas costs (US dollars per MMBtu)
Overall natural gas cost excluding realized derivative impact	3.16		4.85
Realized derivative impact 3	0.04		-
Overall natural gas cost	3.20		4.85

1. All figures are provided on a gross production basis in thousands of product tonnes.
2. Excludes Trinidad and Joffre.
3. Includes realized derivative impacts recorded as part of cost of goods sold or other income and expenses. Refer to Note 3 to the interim financial statements.

7

Phosphate

	Three Months Ended March 31
(millions of US dollars, except as otherwise noted)	2024	2023	% Change
Net sales	437	514	(15)
Cost of goods sold	372	427	(13)
Gross margin	65	87	(25)
Adjusted EBITDA 1	121	137	(12)

1 See Note 2 to the interim financial statements.

• Phosphate adjusted EBITDA decreased in the first quarter of 2024 primarily due to lower net selling prices, partially offset by higher sales volumes and lower ammonia and sulfur input costs. Production increased in the first quarter due to improved reliability at our Aurora plant.

	Three Months Ended
Manufactured product	March 31
($ / tonne, except as otherwise noted)	2024		2023
Sales volumes (tonnes - thousands)
Fertilizer	447		388
Industrial and feed	173		160
Total sales volumes	620		548
Net selling price
Fertilizer	627		682
Industrial and feed	848		1,136
Average net selling price	689		814
Cost of goods sold	580		651
Gross margin	109		163
Depreciation and amortization	113		122
Gross margin excluding depreciation and amortization 1	222		285

1 This is a non-GAAP financial measure. See the "Non-GAAP Financial Measures" section.

• Sales volumes increased in the first quarter of 2024 due to higher production and strong demand across fertilizer, industrial and feed products.
• Net selling price per tonne decreased in the first quarter of 2024 due to lower fertilizer benchmark prices and lower industrial and feed net selling prices which reflect the typical lag in price realizations relative to benchmark prices.
• Cost of goods sold per tonne decreased in the first quarter of 2024 mainly due to lower ammonia and sulfur input costs.

Supplemental Data	Three Months Ended
	March 31
	2024		2023
Production volumes (P2O5 tonnes - thousands)	352		341
P2O5 operating rate (%)	83		81

8

Corporate and Others and Eliminations

	Three Months Ended March 31
(millions of US dollars, except as otherwise noted)	2024	2023	% Change
Corporate and Others
Selling expenses (recovery)	(2)	(2)	-
General and administrative expenses	89	84	6
Share-based compensation expense	6	15	(60)
Other expenses (income)	97	(81)	n/m
Adjusted EBITDA 1	(101)	(13)	677
Eliminations
Gross margin	(37)	(27)	37
Adjusted EBITDA 1	(36)	(21)	71

1 See Note 2 to the interim financial statements.

• Other expenses (income) was an expense in the first quarter of 2024 compared to income in the same period in 2023 due to higher foreign exchange losses primarily from our Retail - South America region in the first quarter of 2024 and an $80 million gain recognized in the first quarter of 2023 due to post-retirement benefit plan amendments.

Finance Costs, Income Taxes and Other Comprehensive (Loss) Income

	Three Months Ended March 31
(millions of US dollars, except as otherwise noted)	2024	2023	% Change
Finance costs	179	170	5
Income tax expense	75	193	(61)
Actual effective tax rate including discrete items (%)	31	25	24
Other comprehensive (loss) income	(102)	2	n/m

• Income tax expense was lower in the first quarter of 2024 primarily as a result of lower earnings compared to the same period in 2023. We did not record the tax benefit on South America losses in the first quarter of 2024 as the recognition criteria to record deferred tax assets was not met. This resulted in a higher effective tax rate for the first quarter of 2024.
• Other comprehensive (loss) income was a loss in the first quarter of 2024 primarily driven by changes in the currency translation of our Retail foreign operations primarily due to depreciation of Australian and Canadian currencies relative to the US dollar.

Liquidity and Capital Resources

Sources and Uses of Liquidity

We continued to manage our capital in accordance with our capital allocation strategy. We believe that our internally generated cash flow, supplemented by available borrowings under new or existing financing sources, if necessary, will be sufficient to meet our anticipated capital expenditures, planned growth and development activities, and other cash requirements for the foreseeable future. Refer to the "Capital Structure and Management" section for details on our existing long-term debt and credit facilities.

Sources and Uses of Cash

	Three Months Ended March 31
(millions of US dollars, except as otherwise noted)	2024	2023	% Change
Cash used in operating activities	(487)	(858)	(43)
Cash used in investing activities	(494)	(694)	(29)
Cash provided by financing activities	548	2,129	(74)
Cash used for dividends and share repurchases 1	(261)	(1,143)	(77)

1 This is a supplementary financial measure. See the "Other Financial Measures" section.

9

Cash used in operating	• Reduced cash outflow in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023 due to a
activities	decrease in income taxes paid and other working capital movements. Typically, in the first quarter
	of the year, we have lower cash payments to our suppliers and have lower cash receipts from our
	grower customers as our receivables build during the planting and application season. In the first
	quarter of 2023, we experienced global supply chain challenges and higher benchmark prices
	compared to the first quarter of 2024, resulting in higher than usual payments to our suppliers
	offsetting the higher receivables we collected from our customers.
Cash used in investing	• Lower in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023 due to lower capital
activities	expenditures and fewer business acquisitions.
Cash provided by	• Lower in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023 due to the issuance of
financing activities	$1,500 million of senior notes in the first quarter of 2023.
	• The proceeds from our short-term debt decreased by $947 million compared to the first quarter of
	2023; however, we also did not repurchase any shares in the first quarter of 2024.
Cash used for dividends	• Lower in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023 as we did not repurchase
and share repurchases	any shares in the first quarter of 2024, compared to $897 million of share repurchases in the first
	quarter of 2023.

Financial Condition Review

The following is a comparison of balance sheet categories that are considered material:

	As at
(millions of US dollars, except as otherwise noted)	March 31, 2024	December 31, 2023	$ Change	% Change
Assets
Cash and cash equivalents	496		941	(445)	(47)
Receivables	5,561		5,398	163	3
Inventories	8,188		6,336	1,852	29
Prepaid expenses and other current assets	905		1,495	(590)	(39)
Property, plant and equipment	22,410		22,461	(51)	-
Liabilities and Equity
Short-term debt	2,835		1,815	1,020	56
Payables and accrued charges	9,431		9,467	(36)	-
Retained earnings	11,423		11,531	(108)	(1)

• Explanations for changes in Cash and cash equivalents are in the "Sources and Uses of Cash" section.
• Receivables remained consistent as the increase in receivables due to the seasonality of our Retail sales was offset by faster collection of our Potash receivables.
• Inventories increased due to the seasonality of our Retail segment and the larger portion of its operations in North America. Our inventory levels build up in the last quarter of the year and peaks in the first quarter of the year, while we draw inventories in the succeeding quarters.
• Prepaid expenses and other current assets decreased due to Retail taking delivery of prepaid inventories in preparation for the spring planting and application seasons in North America.
• Property, plant and equipment decreased due to depreciation more than offsetting capital expenditures in the first quarter of 2024.
• Short-termdebt increased due to higher drawdowns on our credit facilities based on our working capital requirements driven by the seasonality of our business.
• Payables and accrued charges remained consistent, as we have higher customer prepayment balances which were partially offset by lower costs to purchase and produce our inventories and lower capital expenditures accruals.
• Retained earnings decreased as dividends declared exceeded net earnings.

10