Financials Glencore plc Mexican S.E.

Equities

GLEN N

JE00B4T3BW64

Diversified Mining

End-of-day quote Mexican S.E. Other stock markets 18:00:00 2024-01-29 EST			5-day change	1st Jan Change
89.89 ^MXN	-0.89%		-.--%	-25.71%

07-16	FTSE 100 knocked lower by declines in commodities, luxury	RE
07-16	Miners, utilities and Burberry hurt FTSE 100	AN

Valuation

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	41,176	42,124	66,427	85,268	73,132	72,193	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	76,320	77,552	97,827	112,122	103,448	105,873	101,256	97,251
P/E ratio	-104 x	-22.8 x	13.3 x	5.02 x	17.7 x	13.7 x	10.1 x	9.96 x
Yield	6.41%	-	5.13%	6.59%	2.16%	2.23%	3.3%	3.56%
Capitalization / Revenue	0.19 x	0.3 x	0.33 x	0.33 x	0.34 x	0.33 x	0.33 x	0.33 x
EV / Revenue	0.35 x	0.54 x	0.48 x	0.44 x	0.47 x	0.48 x	0.46 x	0.45 x
EV / EBITDA	6.58 x	6.71 x	4.59 x	3.29 x	6.05 x	6.28 x	5.3 x	5.14 x
EV / FCF	19 x	-61.7 x	18.7 x	11.8 x	15.8 x	16.9 x	13.9 x	12.2 x
FCF Yield	5.26%	-1.62%	5.36%	8.46%	6.33%	5.9%	7.22%	8.23%
Price to Book	1.06 x	1.12 x	1.81 x	1.9 x	1.68 x	1.64 x	1.49 x	1.34 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	13,194,320	13,221,312	13,094,998	12,762,238	12,169,709	12,153,411	-	-
Reference price ²	3.121	3.186	5.073	6.681	6.009	5.941	5.941	5.941
Announcement Date	20-02-18	21-02-16	22-02-15	23-02-15	24-02-21	-	-	-

¹USD in Million²USD

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	215,111	142,338	203,751	255,984	217,829	219,842	220,348	217,570
EBITDA ¹	11,601	11,560	21,323	34,060	17,102	16,862	19,099	18,912
EBIT ¹	4,151	4,416	14,495	26,657	10,392	9,706	11,804	11,435
Operating Margin	1.93%	3.1%	7.11%	10.41%	4.77%	4.41%	5.36%	5.26%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	-888	-5,116	7,375	22,879	5,417	7,328	10,177	10,303
Net income ¹	-404	-1,903	4,974	17,320	4,280	5,133	7,055	7,131
Net margin	-0.19%	-1.34%	2.44%	6.77%	1.96%	2.33%	3.2%	3.28%
EPS ²	-0.0300	-0.1400	0.3800	1.330	0.3400	0.4343	0.5882	0.5962
Free Cash Flow ¹	4,017	-1,257	5,242	9,482	6,552	6,248	7,307	8,004
FCF margin	1.87%	-0.88%	2.57%	3.7%	3.01%	2.84%	3.32%	3.68%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	34.63%	-	24.58%	27.84%	38.31%	37.06%	38.26%	42.32%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	-	-	105.39%	54.75%	153.08%	121.73%	103.57%	112.24%
Dividend per Share ²	0.2000	-	0.2600	0.4400	0.1300	0.1325	0.1959	0.2116
Announcement Date	20-02-18	21-02-16	22-02-15	23-02-15	24-02-21	-	-	-

¹USD in Million²USD

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019 S2	2020 S1	2020 S2	2021 S1	2021 S2	2022 S1	2022 S2	2023 S1	2023 S2	2024 S1	2024 S2	2025 S1	2025 S2
Net sales ¹	108,013	70,961	71,377	93,805	109,946	134,435	121,549	107,415	110,414	103,961	107,556	101,975	-
EBITDA	-	4,833	6,727	8,654	12,669	18,918	15,142	9,397	7,705	-	-	-	-
EBIT ¹	-	1,472	2,944	5,305	9,190	15,415	11,242	6,305	4,087	4,781	5,588	4,790	-
Operating Margin	-	2.07%	4.12%	5.66%	8.36%	11.47%	9.25%	5.87%	3.7%	4.6%	5.2%	4.7%	-
Earnings before Tax (EBT)	-	-5,175	59	2,014	5,361	16,012	6,867	5,999	-	-	-	-	-
Net income ¹	-	-2,600	697	1,277	3,697	12,085	5,235	4,568	-	1,935	-	-	-
Net margin	-	-3.66%	0.98%	1.36%	3.36%	8.99%	4.31%	4.25%	-	1.86%	-	-	-
EPS ²	-0.0500	-0.2000	0.0600	0.1000	0.2800	0.9200	0.4100	0.3600	-	0.1600	0.2400	0.2800	0.3000
Dividend per Share	0.1000	-	-	0.0800	0.1600	-	0.2200	-	-	-	-	-	-
Announcement Date	20-02-18	20-08-06	21-02-16	21-08-05	22-02-15	22-08-04	23-02-15	23-08-08	24-02-21	-	-	-	-

¹USD in Million²USD

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	35,144	35,428	31,400	26,854	30,316	33,680	29,063	25,058
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	3.029 x	3.065 x	1.473 x	0.7884 x	1.773 x	1.997 x	1.522 x	1.325 x
Free Cash Flow ¹	4,017	-1,257	5,242	9,482	6,552	6,248	7,307	8,004
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	5.68%	-4.89%	23.5%	42.3%	14.4%	11.8%	15.2%	15.3%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	1.85%	-1.57%	7.43%	14.5%	5.22%	3.86%	6.12%	6.04%
Assets ¹	-21,860	121,041	66,913	119,289	81,936	132,871	115,200	118,155
Book Value Per Share ²	2.940	2.850	2.800	3.520	3.570	3.620	3.980	4.420
Cash Flow per Share ²	0.6300	0.2000	0.6600	1.040	0.8800	0.8900	1.030	1.010
Capex ¹	4,712	3,921	3,618	4,177	4,484	5,395	5,750	5,602
Capex / Sales	2.19%	2.75%	1.78%	1.63%	2.06%	2.45%	2.61%	2.58%
Announcement Date	20-02-18	21-02-16	22-02-15	23-02-15	24-02-21	-	-	-

¹USD in Million²USD

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Glencore plc

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

OUTPERFORM

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

5.941 USD

Average target price

6.754 USD

Spread / Average Target

+13.69%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

Sector Integrated Mining

	1st Jan change	Capi.
BHP GROUP LIMITED	-15.29%	147B
RIO TINTO PLC	-13.20%	111B
GRUPO MÉXICO, S.A.B. DE C.V.	+12.93%	46.83B
SAUDI ARABIAN MINING COMPANY (MA'ADEN)	-7.52%	44.12B
ANGLO AMERICAN PLC	+15.45%	36.29B
HINDUSTAN ZINC LIMITED	+108.07%	33.46B
TECK RESOURCES LIMITED	+18.62%	25.79B
VEDANTA LIMITED	+76.17%	20.22B
IVANHOE MINES LTD.	+49.26%	19.25B

Integrated Mining