Financials Daqin Railway Co., Ltd.

Equities

601006

CNE000001NG4

Ground Freight & Logistics

End-of-day quote Shanghai S.E. Other stock markets 18:00:00 2024-04-29 EDT			5-day change	1st Jan Change
6.92 ^CNY	-1.56%		-6.99%	-4.02%

04-29	Daqin Railway's Q1 Profit Falls 17% as Revenue Slips 8%	MT
04-29	Daqin Railway's 2023 Profit Jumps 7%; Shares Fall 6%	MT

Valuation

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	122,056	96,039	95,148	99,311	110,828	121,558	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	116,418	81,465	78,817	79,100	80,850	108,651	87,361	97,125
P/E ratio	8.92 x	8.97 x	9.28 x	11 x	10.6 x	10.5 x	9.77 x	10.3 x
Yield	5.85%	7.43%	7.5%	7.19%	6.1%	5.39%	5.8%	5.4%
Capitalization / Revenue	1.53 x	1.33 x	1.21 x	1.31 x	1.37 x	1.49 x	1.43 x	1.44 x
EV / Revenue	1.46 x	1.13 x	1 x	1.04 x	1 x	1.33 x	1.03 x	1.15 x
EV / EBITDA	4.26 x	3.57 x	3.41 x	3.6 x	3.52 x	5.24 x	3.81 x	4.71 x
EV / FCF	11.8 x	7.69 x	5.12 x	8.71 x	8.06 x	-12.8 x	5.18 x	-
FCF Yield	8.46%	13%	19.5%	11.5%	12.4%	-7.83%	19.3%	-
Price to Book	1.07 x	0.79 x	0.79 x	0.79 x	0.84 x	0.82 x	0.78 x	0.79 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	14,866,791	14,866,791	14,866,897	14,866,942	15,371,394	17,566,216	-	-
Reference price ²	8.210	6.460	6.400	6.680	7.210	6.920	6.920	6.920
Announcement Date	20-04-28	21-04-26	22-04-27	23-04-26	24-04-26	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	79,917	72,322	78,682	75,758	81,020	81,712	85,049	84,695
EBITDA ¹	27,306	22,800	23,084	21,951	22,977	20,730	22,940	20,631
EBIT ¹	19,975	15,750	18,212	16,901	17,872	17,413	18,643	18,602
Operating Margin	24.99%	21.78%	23.15%	22.31%	22.06%	21.31%	21.92%	21.96%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	19,791	15,659	18,103	16,800	17,727	17,240	18,389	17,441
Net income ¹	13,669	10,896	12,181	11,196	11,930	11,622	12,299	11,874
Net margin	17.1%	15.07%	15.48%	14.78%	14.72%	14.22%	14.46%	14.02%
EPS ²	0.9200	0.7200	0.6900	0.6100	0.6800	0.6610	0.7084	0.6714
Free Cash Flow ¹	9,845	10,588	15,395	9,085	10,032	-8,506	16,850	-
FCF margin	12.32%	14.64%	19.57%	11.99%	12.38%	-10.41%	19.81%	-
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	36.05%	46.44%	66.69%	41.39%	43.66%	-	73.45%	-
FCF Conversion (Net income)	72.02%	97.18%	126.38%	81.14%	84.09%	-	137%	-
Dividend per Share ²	0.4800	0.4800	0.4800	0.4800	0.4400	0.3733	0.4016	0.3736
Announcement Date	20-04-28	21-04-26	22-04-27	23-04-26	24-04-26	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: December	2021 Q4	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 S1	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q2	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2025 Q1	2025 Q2
Net sales ¹	21,047	-	20,673	-	19,832	16,994	19,839	20,602	20,356	20,223	20,992	20,185	21,306	-	-
EBITDA ¹	-	-	6,896	-	5,699	-	-	-	-	-	3,706	8,944	3,270	-	-
EBIT	3,117	-	6,476	-	5,096	1,014	-	5,760	5,159	1,540	-	-	-	-	-
Operating Margin	14.81%	-	31.32%	-	25.7%	5.97%	-	27.96%	25.35%	7.61%	-	-	-	-	-
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	3,098	-	6,458	-	5,097	953.2	-	5,724	5,126	1,498	4,441	4,271	3,767	-	-
Net income ¹	1,928	-	4,349	7,316	3,495	385.8	3,655	3,883	3,574	818.6	3,069	2,937	2,475	-	-
Net margin	9.16%	-	21.04%	-	17.62%	2.27%	18.42%	18.85%	17.56%	4.05%	14.62%	14.55%	11.62%	-	-
EPS ²	0.1200	-	0.2300	-	0.1900	0.0200	-	0.2100	0.2000	0.0700	0.1744	0.1669	0.1406	-	-
Dividend per Share ²	0.4800	-	-	-	-	0.4800	-	-	-	-	-	-	0.3800	-	-
Announcement Date	22-04-27	22-04-27	22-08-29	22-08-29	22-10-27	23-04-26	23-04-26	23-08-28	23-10-26	24-04-26	-	-	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Net Cash position ¹	5,639	14,575	16,331	20,211	29,978	12,907	34,197	24,434
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Free Cash Flow ¹	9,845	10,588	15,395	9,085	10,032	-8,506	16,850	-
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	12.6%	9.45%	9.94%	8.9%	9.09%	7.93%	8.01%	7.49%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	9.3%	6.58%	6.25%	5.59%	-	5.83%	5.7%	5.75%
Assets ¹	146,997	165,689	194,845	200,420	-	199,525	215,769	206,512
Book Value Per Share ²	7.660	8.130	8.140	8.400	8.570	8.420	8.890	8.750
Cash Flow per Share ²	1.010	0.8400	1.270	1.080	1.100	0.8700	1.090	0.9700
Capex ¹	5,178	1,940	3,504	7,017	7,213	7,327	7,074	5,715
Capex / Sales	6.48%	2.68%	4.45%	9.26%	8.9%	8.97%	8.32%	6.75%
Announcement Date	20-04-28	21-04-26	22-04-27	23-04-26	24-04-26	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Daqin Railway Co., Ltd.

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

C-

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

OUTPERFORM

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

6.92 CNY

Average target price

7.781 CNY

Spread / Average Target

+12.45%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

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Railway Freight Operators