Financials ConocoPhillips

Equities

COP

US20825C1045

Oil & Gas Exploration and Production

Real-time Estimate Cboe BZX Other stock markets 09:30:48 2024-09-12 EDT			5-day change	1st Jan Change
102.87 ^USD	+0.29%		-5.52%	-11.63%

09-11	Wolfe Research Adjusts Price Target on ConocoPhillips to $135 From $144	MT
09-10	Piper Sandler Adjusts Price Target on ConocoPhillips to $135 From $145	MT

Projected Income Statement: ConocoPhillips

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	36,670	19,256	48,349	82,156	58,574	59,278	60,980	60,192
Change	-	-47.49%	151.09%	69.92%	-28.7%	1.2%	2.87%	-1.29%
EBITDA ¹	17,189	4,180	21,698	36,675	25,727	25,403	28,828	28,086
Change	-	-75.68%	419.09%	69.02%	-29.85%	-1.26%	13.48%	-2.58%
EBIT ¹	11,099	-1,341	14,490	29,171	17,457	16,032	18,191	17,199
Change	-	-	-	101.32%	-40.16%	-8.16%	13.46%	-5.45%
Interest Paid ¹	-778	-806	-884	-805	-780	-794.5	-880.7	-767.9
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	9,524	-3,140	12,712	28,228	16,288	15,596	17,407	18,949
Change	-	-	-	122.06%	-42.3%	-4.25%	11.61%	8.86%
Net income ¹	7,189	-2,701	8,079	18,680	10,957	10,149	11,296	11,679
Change	-	-	-	131.22%	-41.34%	-7.37%	11.31%	3.39%
Announcement Date	2/4/20	2/2/21	2/3/22	2/2/23	2/8/24	-	-	-

¹USD in Million

Estimates

Fiscal Period: December	2019 Q3	2019 Q4	2020 Q1	2020 Q2	2020 Q3	2020 Q4	2021 Q1	2021 Q2	2021 Q3	2021 Q4	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2025 Q1	2025 Q2	2025 Q3	2025 Q4	2026 Q1	2026 Q2
Net sales ¹	10,093	8,140	4,811	4,016	4,380	6,049	10,559	10,211	11,616	15,963	19,291	21,989	21,614	19,262	15,517	12,884	14,866	15,307	14,476	14,136	14,974	15,201	15,134	15,054	16,161	16,198	16,624	16,741
Change	-	-19.35%	-40.9%	-16.52%	9.06%	38.11%	74.56%	-3.3%	13.76%	37.42%	20.85%	13.99%	-1.71%	-10.88%	-19.44%	-16.97%	15.38%	2.97%	-5.43%	-2.35%	5.93%	1.51%	-0.44%	-0.53%	7.35%	0.23%	2.63%	0.71%
EBITDA ¹	5,332	3,463	548	1,452	1,158	1,022	3,904	5,242	5,435	7,117	10,025	9,669	9,480	7,501	6,737	5,605	6,534	6,882	6,278	6,314	6,254	6,525	7,437	7,358	7,795	7,859	7,531	7,571
Change	-	-35.05%	-84.18%	164.96%	-20.25%	-11.74%	282%	34.27%	3.68%	30.95%	40.86%	-3.55%	-1.95%	-20.88%	-10.19%	-16.8%	16.57%	5.33%	-8.78%	0.57%	-0.96%	4.34%	13.97%	-1.06%	5.94%	0.82%	-4.17%	0.52%
EBIT ¹	3,766	1,975	-863	294	-253	-519	2,018	3,375	3,763	5,334	8,202	7,929	7,608	5,502	4,795	3,595	4,439	4,659	4,526	3,980	3,987	4,326	4,519	4,361	4,399	4,565	5,431	5,515
Change	-	-47.56%	-	-	-	105.14%	-	67.24%	11.5%	41.75%	53.77%	-3.33%	-4.05%	-27.68%	-12.85%	-25.03%	23.48%	4.96%	-2.85%	-12.06%	0.17%	8.51%	4.46%	-3.5%	0.88%	3.77%	18.96%	1.55%
Charge d'intérêts ¹	-184	-196	-202	-202	-200	-202	-226	-220	-219	-219	-217	-211	-199	-178	-188	-179	-194	-219	-205	-198	-200	-201.9	-220.6	-238.1	-238.7	-238.7	-235.1	-235.1
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	3,493	1,286	-1,563	21	-512	-1,086	1,714	3,080	3,582	4,336	7,898	7,655	7,440	5,235	4,562	3,362	4,100	4,264	3,808	3,659	3,851	4,173	4,520	4,502	4,579	4,627	4,874	4,896
Change	-	-63.18%	-	-	-	112.11%	-	79.7%	16.3%	21.05%	82.15%	-3.08%	-2.81%	-29.64%	-12.86%	-26.3%	21.95%	4%	-10.69%	-3.91%	5.24%	8.37%	8.32%	-0.41%	1.73%	1.04%	5.33%	0.45%
Net income ¹	3,056	720	-1,739	260	-450	-772	982	2,091	2,379	2,627	5,759	5,145	4,527	3,249	2,920	2,232	2,798	3,007	2,551	2,329	2,397	2,608	2,874	2,806	2,840	2,905	3,210	3,230
Change	-	-76.44%	-	-	-	71.56%	-	112.93%	13.77%	10.42%	119.22%	-10.66%	-12.01%	-28.23%	-10.13%	-23.56%	25.36%	7.47%	-15.16%	-8.7%	2.9%	8.82%	10.21%	-2.4%	1.23%	2.27%	10.5%	0.63%
Announcement Date	10/29/19	2/4/20	4/30/20	7/30/20	10/29/20	2/2/21	5/4/21	8/3/21	11/2/21	2/3/22	5/5/22	8/4/22	11/3/22	2/2/23	5/4/23	8/3/23	11/2/23	2/8/24	5/2/24	8/1/24	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

¹USD in Million

Estimates

Forecast Balance Sheet: ConocoPhillips

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	6,779	8,769	14,460	7,400	12,331	14,771	13,601	12,019
Change	-	29.36%	64.9%	-48.82%	66.64%	19.79%	-7.92%	-11.63%
Announcement Date	2/4/20	2/2/21	2/3/22	2/2/23	2/8/24	-	-	-

¹USD in Million

Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: ConocoPhillips

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
CAPEX ¹	6,636	4,715	5,324	10,159	11,248	11,484	12,454	11,859
Change	-	-28.95%	12.92%	90.82%	10.72%	2.1%	8.45%	-4.78%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) ¹	4,468	87	10,401	18,155	8,717	9,219	10,809	10,177
Change	-	-98.05%	11,855.17%	74.55%	-51.99%	5.76%	17.25%	-5.85%
Announcement Date	2/4/20	2/2/21	2/3/22	2/2/23	2/8/24	-	-	-

¹USD in Million

Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: ConocoPhillips

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Profitability
EBITDA Margin (%)	46.87%	21.71%	44.88%	44.64%	43.92%	42.85%	47.27%	46.66%
EBIT Margin (%)	30.27%	-6.96%	29.97%	35.51%	29.8%	27.05%	29.83%	28.57%
EBT Margin (%)	25.97%	-16.31%	26.29%	34.36%	27.81%	26.31%	28.55%	31.48%
Net margin (%)	19.6%	-14.03%	16.71%	22.74%	18.71%	17.12%	18.52%	19.4%
FCF margin (%)	12.18%	0.45%	21.51%	22.1%	14.88%	15.55%	17.73%	16.91%
FCF / Net Income (%)	62.15%	-3.22%	128.74%	97.19%	79.56%	90.84%	95.69%	87.14%
Profitability
ROA	5.75%	-1.56%	10.44%	18.8%	11.55%	10.19%	10.21%	9.5%
ROE	12.06%	-3.43%	21.26%	37.13%	21.82%	18.27%	20.28%	17.33%
Financial Health
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	0.39x	2.1x	0.67x	0.2x	0.48x	0.58x	0.47x	0.43x
Debt / Free cash flow	1.52x	100.79x	1.39x	0.41x	1.41x	1.6x	1.26x	1.18x
Capital Intensity
CAPEX / Current Assets (%)	18.1%	24.49%	11.01%	12.37%	19.2%	19.37%	20.42%	19.7%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%)	38.61%	112.8%	24.54%	27.7%	43.72%	45.21%	43.2%	42.22%
CAPEX / FCF (%)	148.52%	5,419.54%	51.19%	55.96%	129.04%	124.57%	115.22%	116.53%
Items per share
Cash flow per share ¹	9.883	4.454	12.8	22.15	17.24	17.51	20.39	21
Change	-	-54.93%	187.28%	73.11%	-22.19%	1.56%	16.45%	2.98%
Dividend per Share ¹	1.335	1.69	1.75	1.89	2.11	3.154	3.493	3.724
Change	-	26.59%	3.55%	8%	11.64%	49.49%	10.74%	6.63%
Book Value Per Share ¹	31.31	27.95	34.87	39.22	41.83	49.54	52.19	56.06
Change	-	-10.74%	24.76%	12.49%	6.64%	18.43%	5.35%	7.42%
EPS ¹	6.4	-2.51	6.07	14.57	9.46	8.608	9.597	10.08
Change	-	-139.22%	-341.83%	140.03%	-35.07%	-9.01%	11.49%	4.99%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	1,097,269	1,067,957	1,318,947	1,246,071	1,187,408	1,161,250	1,161,250	1,161,250
Announcement Date	2/4/20	2/2/21	2/3/22	2/2/23	2/8/24	-	-	-