By Paulo Trevisani


-- Wheat for March delivery fell 2% to $6.10 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade on Wednesday amid reports of warm weather supporting winter crops in Russia.

-- Corn for March delivery fell 0.5% to $4.69 3/4 a bushel.

-- Soybeans for January delivery fell 0.3% to $13.08 1/4 a bushel.


HIGHLIGHTS


Ample Supply: Wheat led a broad decline in grain futures in pre-holiday trade amid estimates of the Russian winter crop being boosted by warm weather.

Meanwhile, Marex's Terry Reilly said in a note that France's soft wheat area is expected to decline to its lowest level since 2000, while Brazil's November wheat exports are expected to be less than half as much as a year ago.

AgResource expects excessive supplies to be cleared in 2024.


Wild Swings: Soybean futures "see wild price swings, but at the end of the day aren't really going anywhere," RCM's Doug Bergman said in a note.

"Brazil weather is still pretty dry, but the market is telling us that the damage isn't perceived as enough to tighten global balance sheets yet," he said. "With potential for large moves in either direction, producers should look at puts to cover downside price risk."


INSIGHT


Russian Wheat: Winter crops in Russia are likely to be bolstered by favorable weather, said Black Sea analytical service Sizov Report. "If there are no big weather anomalies this could start to exert pressure on global wheat prices in the second half of 1Q 2024," the report said.

Andrey Sizov, who heads the research firm SovEcon, raised his 2024 wheat crop forecast by 1.5 million metric tons to 91.3 million tons. That compares to 91.7 million tons expected for 2023.

"The condition of winter crops is better than average," Sizov said, adding that "ample precipitation" and warm temperatures are forecast for growing regions.


Bracing for Rain: South American weather remains a key driver of grain futures. Rainfall is expected to alleviate the dry conditions that have troubled Brazilian growers this season.

"The problems in Brazil are forecasted to improve in the 11- to 15-day period, but rainfall so far this year have failed to live up to the forecasts," Summit's Tomm Pfitzenmaier said in a note.


AHEAD


-- The USDA is scheduled to release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. EST Thursday.

-- The USDA is due to release its monthly livestock slaughter report at 3 p.m. EST Thursday.

-- The USDA is scheduled to release its monthly Cattle on Feed Report at 3 p.m. EST Friday.

-- The USDA is due to release its monthly cold storage report at 3 p.m. EST Friday.

-- The USDA is scheduled to release its quarterly hogs and pigs report at 3 p.m. EST Friday.

-- The CFTC is due to release its weekly Commitments of Traders Report at 3:30 p.m. EST Friday.


Write to Paulo Trevisani at paulo.trevisani@wsj.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

12-20-23 1458ET