By Kirk Maltais


--Wheat for May delivery fell 1.8%, to $6.95 3/4 a bushel, on the Chicago Board of Trade on Monday, falling below the $7 a bushel mark for the first time since September 2021 as traders anticipate the renewal of the Black Sea Grain Initiative.

--Corn for May delivery fell 0.2% to $6.38 1/2 a bushel.

--Soybeans for May delivery rose 0.6% to $15.29 3/4 a bushel.


HIGHLIGHTS


Ahead of Expiration: Wheat led grains lower as the chief indicator of expectations for the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which is set to expire on March 19. "Wheat [is] under pressure again as traders are optimistic that the Ukraine grain shipping corridor, which expires mid-month, will be extended," said Doug Bergman of RCM Alternatives in a note. Fighting has intensified around Bakhmut, with Ukraine defending from drone strikes.

Slow Progress: Soybean futures rose today, lifted by a slower-than-normal pace for harvesting in Brazil. Multiple agencies are saying that the Brazilian harvest is typically roughly halfway-complete by this time of year, but excessive rainfall in crop areas has slowed the pace of harvesting in Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul.


INSIGHT


Changing Focus: News for grains was light over the weekend, but the typical focus of grain traders in the past few months is changing, said Charlie Sernatinger of Marex in a note. "The weather in South America is getting to the point where it really doesn't matter any longer if it rains over Argentina, or not, in fact, from here on out farmers would prefer it doesn't rain at harvest," said Mr. Sernatinger in a note. He adds that Brazil is drying up, which is aiding the planting of its next corn crop. Meanwhile, weather in much of the U.S. is wet, ahead of the beginning of planting season next month.

Tech Squabble: The U.S. Trade Representative has announced that it has requested a technical consultation with Mexico regarding its policies regarding 'agricultural biotechnology' - which comes after Mexico declared that it would ban genetically modified corn for human consumption. The USTR said that restrictive policies on GMO corn will be 'stifling' for agricultural innovation. Agricultural traders have been watching how this dispute plays out, as Mexico is a leading buyer of U.S. corn exports.

Higher Inspections: Export inspections for U.S. corn have turned higher from last week, while soybeans and wheat fell back, the USDA said in its latest grain export inspections report. The USDA said that corn export inspections totaled 899,810 metric tons, up from 649,303 tons last week. However, the total is down from this time last year - and total inspections for the marketing year are still 38% behind the previous year. Soybean and wheat inspections both fell back from the previous week. Mexico was the leading destination for both U.S. corn and wheat, while China was the leading destination for soybeans.


AHEAD


--EIA will release its weekly ethanol production and stocks report at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.

--The USDA will release its monthly world supply and demand report at noon ET Wednesday.

--The USDA will release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. ET Thursday.


Write to Kirk Maltais

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

03-06-23 1516ET