MUMBAI, Nov 13 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee, fresh off a record low, will take cues from U.S. inflation data to gauge how well placed are expectations that the Federal Reserve is done with hiking rates, while government bonds will also depend on local inflation data.

After over a month of the rupee holding a narrow range as the Reserve Bank of India, per traders, defended the 83.30-to-the-dollar level, the rupee hit a record low of 83.42 on Friday.

The currency is estimated to trade in the 83.10-83.60 band next week.

That will depend as much on the RBI's reaction as the U.S. inflation numbers on Tuesday. The data is expected to show headline prices rose by just 0.1% month-on-month in October, thanks to lower energy prices. But, the more important core measure likely rose by 0.3% on-month and by 4.1% on-year.

The data comes as investors price in a low probability of a Fed rate hike in December or January. In fact, they now expect three rate cuts next year.

"The U.S. inflation data is always important and more so now that rate hikes are being priced out," said Kunal Kurani, assistant vice president at Mecklai Financial.

"The U.S. inflation trajectory has obvious ramifications for the overall EM (emerging market) complex and the rupee. The inflation data and how RBI manages the currency, now that it has allowed 83.30 to be taken out, will decide the rupee's direction."

Meanwhile, the Indian 10-year benchmark bond yield ended one basis point (bps) lower at 7.2992% last week, as oil prices declined and the 10-year U.S. yield briefly slipped below the crucial 4.50% mark.

Market participants expect the yield to remain in the 7.26%-7.36% range this week, mainly reacting to U.S. yields on the basis of inflation prints.

"We see inflation and growth moderating, which will open up room for central banks to turn dovish," said Niraj Kumar, chief investment officer at Future Generali India Life Insurance.

"We expect the Fed to pivot sometime in the first half of 2024 and slow down the pace of balance sheet unwinding and eventually start cutting rates by the middle of next year."

India's retail inflation data is due on Monday, a day before the U.S. data, with the reading expected to be a four-month low of 4.80% for October, according to a Reuters poll.

Meanwhile, traders will continue to remain focused on the evolving banking system liquidity amid persisting uncertainty regarding the timing of the RBI's first open market sale.

Since the RBI announced this move, aimed at absorbing additional cash, the banking system liquidity has largely stayed in deficit, leading to further uncertainty.

"The tight liquidity will continue in the system till the end of March as the busy season will also see a pickup in credit partly negated by the strong government spending before the general elections," Kumar said.

The markets will be closed on Tuesday for a local holiday.

KEY EVENTS:

** India Oct CPI inflation - Nov. 13, Monday (5:30 p.m. IST)

** India Oct WPI inflation - Nov. 14, Tuesday (12:00 p.m. IST) (Reuters poll -0.2% on-year)

** U.S. Oct CPI - Nov. 14, Tuesday (7:00 p.m. IST) (Reuters poll 0.1% on-month)

** U.S. Oct PPI machine manufacturing - Nov. 15 Wednesday (7:00 p.m. IST)

** U.S. Oct retail sales - Nov. 15 Wednesday (7:00 p.m. IST)

** U.S. Oct import prices - Nov. 16 Thursday (7:00 p.m. IST)

** U.S. initial weekly jobless claims week to Nov. 6 - Nov. 16, Thursday (6:00 p.m. IST)

** U.S. Oct industrial production - Nov. 16, Thursday (7:45 p.m. IST)

** U.S. Oct housing starts - Nov. 17, Friday (7:00 p.m. IST) (Reporting by Nimesh Vora and Dharamraj Dhutia; Editing by Savio D'Souza)