SEATTLE, WA--(Marketwired - Jan 23, 2015) - Greece has a tendency to come under pressure leading into elections in recent years, only to rebound post-election. As the country approaches a new legislative election on Sunday, history could be repeating itself.
Russell Indexes examined performance for the Greek equity market, as measured by the Russell Emerging Markets Index, in the three- and one-month periods before and after two recent Greek elections. Among the notable findings:
- The Greek equity market was down (-26.0%) in the three months before the June 17, 2012 Hellenic parliamentary elections and up +29.1% in the three months after the election.
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The Greek equity market was down (-3.3%) one month before the May 25, 2014 European parliamentary elections (elected the delegation of Greece to the European Parliament) and up +3.3% one month after the election.
Now, in the days leading up to Sunday's legislative elections, the Greek equity market is down (-15.4%) and (-6.3%) for the last three and one month, respectively, as of January 20.
Mat Lystra -
Senior Research Analyst, Russell Indexes
"Market indexes can be great tools for investors to identify patterns and gain greater understanding of longer term market dynamics. In the case of Greece, this market has been influenced in recent years by speculation around a potential 'Grexit,' or Greek exit from the European Economic Union. This speculation has had a great impact in the market in the periods leading up to Greek elections where the national debate around national identity is at its most visible, as reflected by the Russell Global Indexes."
For more information on the Russell Emerging Markets Index, go to the Russell Investments website.
| Russell Emerging Markets Index & Greek Country Constituent Returns Pre- & Post- Recent Elections | 3 Months Pre-Election | 3 Months Post-Election | 1 Month Pre-Election | 1 Month Post-Election | ||||
| January 25, 2015 - Greek Legislative Elections | ||||||||
| Russell Emerging Markets Index |
8.2% (Oct 20 - Jan 20) | N/A |
7.2% (Dec 20-Jan 20) | N/A | ||||
| Russell Emerging Markets Index - Greece | -15.4% (Oct 20 - Jan 20) | N/A | -6.3% (Dec 20-Jan 20) | N/A | ||||
| May 25, 2014 - European Parliament Elections | ||||||||
| Russell Emerging Markets Index | 9.5% | 9.1% | 5.2% | 0.9% | ||||
| Russell Emerging Markets Index - Greece | -4.8% | -1.9% | -3.3% | 3.3% | ||||
| June 17, 2012 - Hellenic Parliament Elections | ||||||||
| Russell Emerging Markets Index | -8.3% | 6.1% | 1.2% | 4.7% | ||||
| Russell Emerging Markets Index - Greece | -26.0% | 29.1% | 4.4% | 6.6% | ||||
Source: Russell Investments. Total returns, euro denominated.
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Global equity involves risk associated with investments primarily in equity securities of companies located around the world, including the United States. International securities can involve risks relating to political and economic instability or regulatory conditions. Investments in emerging or developing markets involve exposure to economic structures that are generally less diverse and mature, and to political systems which can be expected to have less stability than those of more developed countries.
Investments in emerging or developing markets involve exposure to economic structures that are generally less diverse and mature, and to political systems which can be expected to have less stability than those of more developed countries. Securities may be less liquid and more volatile than US and longer-established non-US markets.
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Opinions expressed by Mr. Lystra reflect market performance as of January 20, 2015 and are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions without notice. Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
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