Projected Income Statement: XPeng Inc.

Forecast Balance Sheet: XPeng Inc.

Fiscal Period: December 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Net Debt 1 -31,192 -35,893 -6,814 -11,587 -8,313 -18,834 -26,534 -32,579
Change - -15.07% 81.02% -70.05% 28.26% -126.57% -40.88% -22.78%
Announcement Date 3/8/21 3/28/22 3/17/23 3/19/24 3/18/25 - - -
1CNY in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: XPeng Inc.

Fiscal Period: December 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
CAPEX 1 806.1 2,300 4,680 2,312 2,226 2,940 2,895 3,043
Change - 185.3% 103.5% -50.61% -3.69% 32.06% -1.52% 5.1%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 -945.8 -3,394 -12,508 -1,355 -4,238 4,691 8,219 10,497
Change - -258.87% -268.51% 89.16% -212.72% 210.67% 75.22% 27.72%
Announcement Date 3/8/21 3/28/22 3/17/23 3/19/24 3/18/25 - - -
1CNY in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: XPeng Inc.

Fiscal Period: December 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) -65.98% -27.36% -27.16% -28.63% -10% -0.14% 3.83% 5.61%
EBIT Margin (%) -56.42% -31.35% -32.42% -35.5% -16.29% -3.7% 0.69% 3.1%
EBT Margin (%) -46.73% -23.05% -33.95% -33.88% -14.27% -1.91% 1.82% 3.82%
Net margin (%) -46.75% -23.17% -34.03% -33.82% -14.17% -1.86% 1.77% 3.79%
FCF margin (%) -16.18% -16.17% -46.58% -4.42% -10.37% 5.99% 7.36% 7.86%
FCF / Net Income (%) 34.62% 69.8% 136.87% 13.06% 73.2% -321.91% 415.68% 207.18%

Profitability

        
ROA -10.13% -8.81% -13.33% -13.33% -6.94% -1.5% 2.03% 4.24%
ROE -19.8% -12.7% -23.12% -28.33% -17.13% -4.21% 7.53% 15.31%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) - - - - - - - -
Debt / Free cash flow - - - - - - - -

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 13.79% 10.96% 17.43% 7.54% 5.45% 3.75% 2.59% 2.28%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) -20.91% -40.05% -64.15% -26.32% -54.49% -2,715.76% 67.61% 40.59%
CAPEX / FCF (%) -85.22% -67.75% -37.41% -170.55% -52.52% 62.67% 35.22% 28.98%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 -0.1853 -1.332 -9.614 1.098 -2.128 5.99 11.49 11.81
Change - -619.1% -621.52% 111.42% -293.81% 381.49% 91.79% 2.77%
Dividend per Share 1 - - - - - - - -
Change - - - - - - - -
Book Value Per Share 1 22.4 51.31 42.91 38.57 33.07 31.39 32.66 35.68
Change - 129.01% -16.37% -10.12% -14.25% -5.07% 4.03% 9.26%
EPS 1 -7.24 -5.92 -10.67 -11.92 -6.12 -1.437 1.582 4.594
Change - 18.23% -80.24% -11.72% 48.66% 76.52% 210.09% 190.4%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 768,381 843,413 856,765 939,549 948,803 954,674 954,674 954,674
Announcement Date 3/8/21 3/28/22 3/17/23 3/19/24 3/18/25 - - -
1CNY
Estimates
2025 *2026 *
P/E ratio -102x 92.8x
PBR 4.68x 4.5x
EV / Sales 1.55x 1.02x
Yield - -
More valuation ratios * Estimated data

EPS & Dividend

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
BUY
Number of Analysts
28
Last Close Price
146.85CNY
Average target price
198.38CNY
Spread / Average Target
+35.09%
Consensus

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise