Projected Income Statement: XP Inc.

Forecast Balance Sheet: XP Inc.

Fiscal Period: Dicembre 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 28,390 5,141 5,632 3,555 - -22,963 -24,283 -30,149
Change - -81.89% 9.55% -36.88% - - -5.75% -24.16%
Announcement Date 2/8/22 2/16/23 2/27/24 2/18/25 2/12/26 - - -
1BRL in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: XP Inc.

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 353 127 196.2 330.2 489.6 649.7 848.7 958.9
Change - -64.03% 54.54% 68.28% 48.26% 32.7% 30.64% 12.98%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 -4,373 1,677 7,931 10,849 11,836 12,938 10,354 9,792
Change - 138.34% 372.96% 36.79% 9.1% 9.31% -19.98% -5.43%
Announcement Date 2/8/22 2/16/23 2/27/24 2/18/25 2/12/26 - - -
1BRL in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: XP Inc.

Fiscal Period: Dicembre 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 34.69% 30.45% 31.84% 34.96% 34.06% 33.74% 34.4% 34.93%
EBIT Margin (%) 32.77% 28.91% 30.15% 33.41% 32.41% 30.76% 32.47% 32.71%
EBT Margin (%) 36.28% 25.81% 26.49% 29.2% 29.59% 28.95% 30.83% 31.28%
Net margin (%) 29.72% 26.82% 26.24% 26.44% 28.07% 27.74% 27.8% 26.85%
FCF margin (%) -36.21% 12.56% 53.37% 63.52% 64.28% 63.32% 44.68% 37.62%
FCF / Net Income (%) -121.84% 46.84% 203.41% 240.28% 228.97% 228.29% 160.7% 140.09%

Profitability

        
ROA 3.05% 2.16% 2.5% 1.51% 1.39% 1.3% 1.23% 1.22%
ROE 28.36% 22.76% 21.4% 23% 23.72% 22.68% 23.07% 23.46%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 6.78x 1.26x 1.19x 0.6x - - - -
Debt / Free cash flow -6.49x 3.07x 0.71x 0.33x - - - -

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 2.92% 0.95% 1.32% 1.93% 2.66% 3.18% 3.66% 3.68%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 8.43% 3.12% 4.15% 5.53% 7.81% 9.42% 10.65% 10.55%
CAPEX / FCF (%) -8.07% 7.57% 2.47% 3.04% 4.14% 5.02% 8.2% 9.79%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 -7.01 3.148 14.93 20.39 22.64 27.54 9.266 17.84
Change - 144.91% 374.38% 36.52% 11.05% 21.63% -66.35% 92.54%
Dividend per Share 1 - - 6.459 3.774 - 6.249 7.545 8.509
Change - - - -41.57% - - 20.74% 12.77%
Book Value Per Share 1 25.77 30.67 35.46 37.13 43.71 50.67 57.35 64.62
Change - 19.04% 15.62% 4.7% 17.71% 15.94% 13.16% 12.69%
EPS 1 6.259 6.25 7.16 8.231 9.719 10.55 12.27 13.46
Change - -0.14% 14.56% 14.96% 18.07% 8.59% 16.22% 9.77%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 559,549 560,294 548,083 537,004 528,220 513,804 513,804 513,804
Announcement Date 2/8/22 2/16/23 2/27/24 2/18/25 2/12/26 - - -
1BRL
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E Ratio 7.64x 6.57x
PBR 1.59x 1.41x
EV / Sales 0.9x 0.74x
Yield 7.75% 9.36%

EPS & Dividend

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
AA
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
BUY
Number of Analysts
13
Last Close Price
80.60BRL
Average target price
121.38BRL
Spread / Average Target
+50.59%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise

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